Research Article
BibTex RIS Cite
Year 2017, Volume: 22 Issue: 1, 49 - 90, 01.04.2017

Abstract

References

  • Bernardo Teles Fazendeiro, “Keeping Face in the Public Sphere: Recognition, Discretion and Uzbekistan’s Relations with the United States and Germany, 1991- 2006”, Central Asian Survey, Vol. 34, No. 3 (2015), pp. 341-356; “Uzbekistan - Foreign Relations””, Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/centralasia/uzbek-forrel. htm (last visited 31 December 2016).
  • For an attempt of periodization of Uzbek politics, see, Durbek Sayfullayev, “Uzbekistan’s Diplomacy in the Modern International Relations System”,Journal of Public Affairs, Vol. 16, No. 4 (2016), pp. 415- 422; For another early example of periodization of Uzbek example based on the performance of economic reforms, see,Richard Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development, 1991-1999”,Economics of Transition, Vol. 8, No. 3 (2000), pp. 733-748.
  • Robert Lewis, “Early Irrigation in West Turkestan”, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 56, No. 3 (1966), p. 479.
  • See, for an example: Sir Mandeville, The Voiage and Travaile of Sir John Maundevile, Kt, London, Edward Lumley, (1839 reproduction ofthe 1725 version), pp. 263-64.
  • Ian Matley, “The Golodnaya Steppe: A Russian Irrigation Venture in Central Asia”,Geographical Review, Vol. 60, No. 3 (1970), pp. 328-29.
  • Kn. Massalskiy, Khlopkovoye Delo v Srednei Azii i Ego Buduschee (Cotton Industry in Central Asia and Its Future), S.Peterburg, B. Kirschbaum, 1892, pp. 15-17.
  • Matley, “The Golodnaya Steppe”, p.329; Massalskiy, Khlopkovoye Delo v Srednei Azii i Ego Buduschee, p. 15.
  • John Whitman, “Turkestan Cotton in Imperial Russia”,American Slavic and East European Review, Vol. 15, No. 2 (1956), p. 194.
  • Igor Lipovsky, “The Central Asian Cotton Epic”,Central Asian Survey, Vol. 14, No. 4 (1995), p. 533.
  • The total demand was 1.87 million bales. See, Michael, Cotton Growing in the Soviet Union, p. 3.
  • For cotton agriculture and irrigation in Central Asia during and before Soviet era, see M. Bennett, “Food and Agriculture in the Soviet Union, 1917-48”,Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 57, No. 3 (1949), pp. 185-198; George Cressey, “Changing the Map of the Soviet Union”,Economic Geography, Vol. 29, No. 3(1953), pp. 198-207; A. A. Grigoryev, “Soviet Plans for Irrigation and Power: A Geographical Assessment”,The Geographical Journal, Vol. 118, No. 2 (1952), pp. 168-179; Lipovsky, “The Central Asian Cotton Epic”.
  • Zvi Lerman, Yoav Kislev, David Biton and Alon Kriss, “Agricultural Output and Productivity in the Former Soviet Republics”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 51, No. 4 (2003), p. 1001.
  • Shahram Akbarzadeh, Uzbekistan and the United States: Authoritarianism, Islamism and Washington’s Security Agenda, London, Zed Books, 2005, p. 9.
  • Muzaffar Akbarov, “Japanese Miracle and Uzbek Development Model: Comparative Study of Development Paths”,European Journal of Business and Management, Vol. 8, No. 15 (2016), p. 87; B. Plyshevskii, “Reforming the Economies of the CIS: Uzbekistan”,Problems of Economic Transition, 1995, p. 84.
  • Kobil Ruziev, Dipak Ghosh and Sheila Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited: An Analysis of Economic performance in Uzbekistan since 1991”,Central Asian Survey, Vol. 26, No. 1 (2007), p. 10.
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model”, p.735.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, p. 9; The poorest union republic was Tajikistan.51 % of its population was poor in 1989.
  • International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook October 2016”, http://www. imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/ (last visited 4 January 2017).
  • Some econometric models predicted this recession with a success. See, Zettelmeyer, “The Uzbek Growth Puzzle”, p. 278.
  • For a comparison of the economic performance of post-Soviet countries, see,Zbigniew Matkowski, “Postsocialist Countries: Macroeconomic Performance, Growth Prospects, and Social Welfare”, Eastern European Economics, Vol. 42, No. 3 (2004), pp. 44-80. See also Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek puzzle revisited”, p. 15.
  • Arup Banerji and Asad Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Transition Paths, Washington, DC, The World Bank, 1999, p. 7.
  • Zettelmeyer, “The Uzbek Growth Puzzle”, pp. 287-88; Thilak Ranaweera, Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000, 2003, p. 6; Banerji and Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Transition Paths, pp. 12-17.
  • Bekzod Abdullaev and László Kónya, “Causality Between Government Expenditures and National Output in Uzbekistan: A VAR Approach”,Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 57, No. 6 (2014), p. 70.
  • Abdullaev and Kónya, “Causality Between Government Expenditures and National Output in Uzbekistan”, p. 70.
  • Makkamjan Abdoulkadyrov, “Monetary Reform: A Comparison of the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Uzbekistan”, Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 37, No. 3 (1995), p. 43.
  • Abdoulkadyrov, “Monetary Reform”, p. 44.
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development”, p. 739.
  • Abdoulkadyrov, “Monetary Reform”, pp. 44-45.
  • Christoph Rosenberg and Maarten De Zeeuw, Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan ‘ s Foreign Exchange Regime, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, 2001, p. 164.
  • Rosenberg and De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan ‘ s Foreign Exchange Regime”, 35 Ibid., p. 168. 36 Ibid., p. 174.
  • Ibid., p. 162; Pauline Jones Luong, “Political Obstacles to Economic Reform in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan: Strategies for Moving Ahead”, in C.R. Shiells and S. Sattar (eds). The Low-Income Countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States: Progress and Challenges in Transition, Washington, DC, IMF, 2004, pp. 208-209.
  • International Monetary Fund, The Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), Uzbekistan 2016 Report, 2016, p. 15.
  • Rosenberg and De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan ‘ s Foreign Exchange Regime”, p. 162.
  • Thilak Ranaweera, Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000, Washington, DC, The World Bank, 2003, p. 16.
  • Banerji and Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, p. 3.
  • Plyshevskii, “Reforming the Economies of the CIS: Uzbekistan”, p. 84; Rustam Dosumov, “Uzbekistan: A National Path to the Market”,p. 140.
  • These are approximate numbers. For precise statistics, refer to:Observatory of Economic Complexity, “What does Uzbekistan export?”,OEC, http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/ visualize/tree_map/sitc/export/uzb/all/show/1993/ (last visited 5 January 2017).
  • Plyshevskii, “Reforming the Economies of the CIS: Uzbekistan”, p.93; R. Gidadhubli, “Economic Transition in Uzbekistan”,Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 29, No. 6 (1994), p. 295.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek puzzle Revisited”, p. 17.
  • US Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum and Other Liquids”, http://www. eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M (last visited 20 January 2017).
  • In 2001-2002 season, state support for cotton producers peaked. The US paid 97 % of the world cotton price as subsidies, while in Greece and Spain, the amount of transfers reached to 1.9 and 2.5 times the world price, respectively. See John Baffes, “The “Cotton Problem”, The World Bank Research Observer, Vol. 20, No. 1 (2005), p. 116.
  • Per person global cotton consumption decreased from 4 kilograms in 1987 to slightly more than 3 kilograms by 2002 in the world. Baffes, “The Cotton Problem”, pp. 113-114.
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek model of economic development, 1991-1999”, p. 741; Rosenberg and De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan’s Foreign Exchange Regime”, p. 164.
  • Banerji and Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Transition Paths, p. 16.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, p. 21; Erkin Shadmanov, “Issues of Balanced Development in Uzbekistan Economy”,Perspectives of Innovations, Economics & Business, Vol. 5, No. 2 (2010), p. 43.
  • Rosenberg and De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan’s Foreign Exchange Regime”, pp. 160-161.
  • Thilak Ranaweera, Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000, Washington, DC, The World Bank, 2003, p. 9; Rosenberg & De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan’ s Foreign Exchange Regime”, p. 160.
  • Malika Saidkhodjaeva, “Uzbekistan, An Expanding and Capital-Hungry Economy: Specific Inter-Related Opportunities in Energy, IT and Agriculture”,Energy Policy, Vol. 32, No. 10 (2004), p. 1243;Plyshevskii, “Reforming the Economies of the CIS”, p. 91.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, p. 21.
  • Kobil, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, pp. 19-21.
  • Gidadhubli, “Economic Transition in Uzbekistan”, p. 296.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p. 12.
  • Sheila Marnie and John Micklewright, “Targeting Social Assistance in a Transition Economy: The Mahallas in Uzbekistan”,Social Policy and Administration, Vol. 39, No. 4 (2005), p. 21.
  • Marnie and Micklewright, Targeting Social Assistance in a Transition Economy, p. 20. 63 Ibid., p. 17
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, p.12.
  • Twenty four banks are licensed by the CBRU to conduct foreign exchange transactions as of February 2016. See,International Monetary Fund, The Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), p. 3.
  • Alexandr Akimov and Brian Dollery, “Uzbekistan’s Financial System: An Evaluation of Twelve Years of Transition”,Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 48, No. 2 (2006), pp. 18-19.
  • Kobil Ruziev and Dipak Ghosh, “Banking Sector Development: A Case of Mixed Blessings?”,Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 52, No. 2 (2009), p. 15.
  • Akimov and Dollery, “Uzbekistan’s Financial System”, p. 20.
  • Ruziev and Ghosh, “Banking Sector Development”, p. 15. 70 Ibid., pp. 9-10.
  • Ranaweera, Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, p. 3.
  • Arup Banerji and Asad Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Transition Paths, p. 9; Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development, 1991-1999”, p. 740; IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p. 12.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, p. 22.
  • Pomfret,“The Uzbek Model of Economic Development”;Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”; Pomfret and Anderson, Uzbekistan.
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development”; Zettelmeyer, “The Uzbek Growth Puzzle”; Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”.
  • Islam Karimov, “Extended Session of the Cabinet of Ministers Takes Place in Tashkent”, Press Service of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, http://www.press-service.uz/ en/news/5226/ (last visited 15 January 2017).
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development”, p. 740.
  • See, Peter Murrell, “What is Shock Terapy? What Did it Do in Poland and Russia?”, Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 2 (1993), pp. 111-140; Thomas Hall and John Elliott, “Poland and Russia: One Decade after Shock Therapy”, Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 33, No. 2 (1999), pp. 305-314.
  • It is also a fact that Uzbekistan has undergone a comprehensive program of privatization. By 1994, according to official estimates, some 54.000 enterprises were privatized. See,Rustam Dosumov, “Uzbekistan: A National Path to the Market”, 1996, p. 151.
  • Banerji & Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, p. 17.
  • Gidadhubli, “Economic Transition in Uzbekistan”, p. 295.
  • Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan on the Threshold of the Twenty-first Century: Challenges to Stability and Progress, New York, St. Martin’s Press, 1998, p. 11.
  • International Monetary Fund, Uzbekistan, Position as of 31 January 2016, http://www. elibrary-areaer.imf.org/Pages/Reports.aspx (last visited 27 January 2017).
  • Akimov & Dollery, “Uzbekistan’s Financial System”, p. 30.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p. 14. 87 Ibid., p. 8.
  • The World Bank, “World Development Indicators, IFS and Balance of Payments databases of IMF, OECD”, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world- development-indicators (last visited 24 January 2017).
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p.12. 91 Ibid., p.13. 92 Ibid., p. 4.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2012, p. 4.
  • Avinoam Idan and Brenda Shaffer, “The Foreign Policies of Post-Soviet Landlocked States”,Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (2011), p. 259.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p. 4. 96 Ibid., p.10.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2012, p.10.
  • International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook October 2016”.
  • Karimov, Uzbekistan on the Threshold of the Twenty-first Century, pp. 12-14.
  • For accounts on Uzbek alliance behavior, see,Steven David, “Explaining Third World Alignment”,World Politics, Vol. 43, No. 2 (1991), pp. 233-257. For arguments based on omnibalancing theory, see,Fumagalli, “Alignments and Realignments in Central Asia”, in this respect.
  • John Herbst, “Karimov Urges Closer Cooperation with US, Commits to Frank Airing
  • of Differences”,Wikileaks, https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/00TASHKENT4223_a. html (last visited 5 January 2017).
  • USAID, http://us-foreign-aid.insidegov.com/l/187/Uzbekistan (last visited 5 January 2017).
  • The World Bank website states: “Net bilateral aid flows from the [Development Assistance Committee (DAC)] donors are the net disbursements of official development assistance (ODA) or official aid from the members of DAC. […] DAC members are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and European Union Institutions. […]”
  • S. Adam Cardais and Sofia Persio, “Putin Praises Russian Olympic Judo Team
  • Uzbekistan to Ban Foreign Bases”,Transitions Online, http://www.tol.org/client/ article/23288-putin-praises-russian-olympic-judo-team-uzbekistan-to-ban-foreign- bases.html (last visited 1 January 2017).
  • “Uzbekistan: Government Takes On U.S. Gold Mining Company”,Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, http://www.rferl.org/a/1070586.html (last visited 4 January 2017).
  • Fumagalli builds his theory on Steven David’s omnibalancing theory. See, Fumagalli, “Alignments and Realignments in Central Asia”, p. 254. For a critique of omnibalancing, see,Timur Dadabaev, “The Constructivist logic of Uzbekistan’s Foreign Policy in the Karimov Era and Beyond”,Central Asian Survey, Special Virtual Issue, http://www. tandf.co.uk/journals/pdf/8_Dadabaev_final%20220916.pdf (last visited 13 January 2017).
  • Gregory Gleason, “The Uzbek Expulsion of U.S. Forces and Realignment in Central Asia”, Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 53, No. 2 (2006), pp. 49-60.
  • Idan & Shaffer, “The Foreign Policies of Post-Soviet Landlocked States”.
  • John Heathershaw, “Worlds Apart: the making and remaking of geopolitical space in the US–Uzbekistani strategic partnership”,Central Asian Survey, Vol. 26, No. 1 (2007), pp. 123-140.
  • Sergei Blagov, “Uzbekistan and Russia Sign Mutual Defense Pact”, Eurasianet, http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav111505.shtml (last visited 13 January 2017).
  • GUAM was established in 1996 by Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova. Uzbekistan joined in 1999.
  • These acts of Karimov were evaluated as being “tactical maneuvers” by some authors. See, Gleason, “The Uzbek Expulsion of U.S. Forces and Realignment in Central Asia”, p. 57.
  • Teles Fazendeiro, “Keeping Face in the Public Sphere: Recognition, Discretion and Uzbekistan’s Relations with the United States and Germany, 1991- 2006”, Central Asian Survey, Vol. 34, No. 3 (2015), p. 349; Aleksandr Pikalov, “Uzbekistan Between the Great Powers: ABalancing Act or a Multi-Vectorial Approach?”,Central Asian Survey, Vol. 33, No. 3 (2014), p. 305.
  • “China to provide US$2.7bn loan to Uzbekistan”,UzDaily, https://www.uzdaily.com/ articles-id-36266.htm (last visited 3 January 2017).
  • Russian News Agency, “Russia pardons 95% of Uzbekistan Debt in Exchange for Waiver of Claims to Diamond Fund”,TASS, http://tass.com/economy/865991 (last visited 2 January 2017).
  • See, Joshua Feinman, Backlash against globalization: Déjà vu?, Deutsche Asset Management, 2016, pp. 6-8; Ana Swanson, “The World Today Looks a Bit Like it did Before World War I - But What Does that Mean?”,World Economic Forum, https://www. weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/why-the-world-looks-a-bit-like-it-did-before-world- war-i (last visited 15 January 2017).
  • World Bank, Load Dispatch and System Operation Study in Central Asian Power System,p.14, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/961351468178154865/Load-dispatch- and-system-operation-study-in-Central-Asian-power-system(last visited 2 January 2017); Siegfried Grunwald, Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation: Power Sector Regional Master Plan, https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/central-asia-regional- economic-cooperation-power-sector-regional-master-plan-tacr(last visited 15 January 2017).
  • Joanna Lillis, “Uzbekistan Leader Warns of Water Wars in Central Asia”, http://www. eurasianet.org/node/65877 (last visited 27 December 2016).
  • Demir Azizov, “Uzbekistan Once Again Reminds Tajikistan About Danger of Rogun Plant Construction”, http://en.trend.az/casia/uzbekistan/2560086.html (last visited 23 December 2016); Peter Leonard, “Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Taking Cautious Steps to End Dam Impasse”,athttp://www.eurasianet.org/node/81256 (last visited 4 January 2017); Joshua Kucera, “Kazakhstan, UN Getting Involved In Rogun Mediation”,Eurasianet.org, 2013, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66776 (last visited 4 January 2017).
  • Martin Sommer, Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil, p. 12, https://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/dp/2016/mcd1603(last visited 15 January 2017).
  • The World Bank website states: “Examines growth trends for the global economy and how they affect developing countries [for] three-year forecasts for the global economy and long-term global scenarios which look ten years into the future.”

A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan

Year 2017, Volume: 22 Issue: 1, 49 - 90, 01.04.2017

Abstract

After the collapse of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan chose an original path of economic development policy. Known as the Uzbek model, these policies helped the Uzbek economy survive at least two economic crises over the last two decades. In terms of various macroeconomic indicators, the Uzbek economy outperformed similar countries. This paper divides the post-independence economic policies of the Uzbek leadership into three periods according to various definitive characteristics, and argues that the original path of the Uzbek model has been one of the key factors for the performance of the Uzbek economy. Over the last 25 years, the main motivation behind the occasional changes in the political and economic preferences of the Uzbek leadership has been the pursuit of independence.In its quarter century of economic policies, Uzbekistan’s economy has achieved considerable success and has had various opportunities. It is a matter of policy choices to translate this promising outlook into solid and sustainable economic growth

References

  • Bernardo Teles Fazendeiro, “Keeping Face in the Public Sphere: Recognition, Discretion and Uzbekistan’s Relations with the United States and Germany, 1991- 2006”, Central Asian Survey, Vol. 34, No. 3 (2015), pp. 341-356; “Uzbekistan - Foreign Relations””, Global Security, http://www.globalsecurity.org/military/world/centralasia/uzbek-forrel. htm (last visited 31 December 2016).
  • For an attempt of periodization of Uzbek politics, see, Durbek Sayfullayev, “Uzbekistan’s Diplomacy in the Modern International Relations System”,Journal of Public Affairs, Vol. 16, No. 4 (2016), pp. 415- 422; For another early example of periodization of Uzbek example based on the performance of economic reforms, see,Richard Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development, 1991-1999”,Economics of Transition, Vol. 8, No. 3 (2000), pp. 733-748.
  • Robert Lewis, “Early Irrigation in West Turkestan”, Annals of the Association of American Geographers, Vol. 56, No. 3 (1966), p. 479.
  • See, for an example: Sir Mandeville, The Voiage and Travaile of Sir John Maundevile, Kt, London, Edward Lumley, (1839 reproduction ofthe 1725 version), pp. 263-64.
  • Ian Matley, “The Golodnaya Steppe: A Russian Irrigation Venture in Central Asia”,Geographical Review, Vol. 60, No. 3 (1970), pp. 328-29.
  • Kn. Massalskiy, Khlopkovoye Delo v Srednei Azii i Ego Buduschee (Cotton Industry in Central Asia and Its Future), S.Peterburg, B. Kirschbaum, 1892, pp. 15-17.
  • Matley, “The Golodnaya Steppe”, p.329; Massalskiy, Khlopkovoye Delo v Srednei Azii i Ego Buduschee, p. 15.
  • John Whitman, “Turkestan Cotton in Imperial Russia”,American Slavic and East European Review, Vol. 15, No. 2 (1956), p. 194.
  • Igor Lipovsky, “The Central Asian Cotton Epic”,Central Asian Survey, Vol. 14, No. 4 (1995), p. 533.
  • The total demand was 1.87 million bales. See, Michael, Cotton Growing in the Soviet Union, p. 3.
  • For cotton agriculture and irrigation in Central Asia during and before Soviet era, see M. Bennett, “Food and Agriculture in the Soviet Union, 1917-48”,Journal of Political Economy, Vol. 57, No. 3 (1949), pp. 185-198; George Cressey, “Changing the Map of the Soviet Union”,Economic Geography, Vol. 29, No. 3(1953), pp. 198-207; A. A. Grigoryev, “Soviet Plans for Irrigation and Power: A Geographical Assessment”,The Geographical Journal, Vol. 118, No. 2 (1952), pp. 168-179; Lipovsky, “The Central Asian Cotton Epic”.
  • Zvi Lerman, Yoav Kislev, David Biton and Alon Kriss, “Agricultural Output and Productivity in the Former Soviet Republics”, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 51, No. 4 (2003), p. 1001.
  • Shahram Akbarzadeh, Uzbekistan and the United States: Authoritarianism, Islamism and Washington’s Security Agenda, London, Zed Books, 2005, p. 9.
  • Muzaffar Akbarov, “Japanese Miracle and Uzbek Development Model: Comparative Study of Development Paths”,European Journal of Business and Management, Vol. 8, No. 15 (2016), p. 87; B. Plyshevskii, “Reforming the Economies of the CIS: Uzbekistan”,Problems of Economic Transition, 1995, p. 84.
  • Kobil Ruziev, Dipak Ghosh and Sheila Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited: An Analysis of Economic performance in Uzbekistan since 1991”,Central Asian Survey, Vol. 26, No. 1 (2007), p. 10.
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model”, p.735.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, p. 9; The poorest union republic was Tajikistan.51 % of its population was poor in 1989.
  • International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook October 2016”, http://www. imf.org/external/pubs/ft/weo/2016/02/ (last visited 4 January 2017).
  • Some econometric models predicted this recession with a success. See, Zettelmeyer, “The Uzbek Growth Puzzle”, p. 278.
  • For a comparison of the economic performance of post-Soviet countries, see,Zbigniew Matkowski, “Postsocialist Countries: Macroeconomic Performance, Growth Prospects, and Social Welfare”, Eastern European Economics, Vol. 42, No. 3 (2004), pp. 44-80. See also Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek puzzle revisited”, p. 15.
  • Arup Banerji and Asad Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Transition Paths, Washington, DC, The World Bank, 1999, p. 7.
  • Zettelmeyer, “The Uzbek Growth Puzzle”, pp. 287-88; Thilak Ranaweera, Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000, 2003, p. 6; Banerji and Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Transition Paths, pp. 12-17.
  • Bekzod Abdullaev and László Kónya, “Causality Between Government Expenditures and National Output in Uzbekistan: A VAR Approach”,Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 57, No. 6 (2014), p. 70.
  • Abdullaev and Kónya, “Causality Between Government Expenditures and National Output in Uzbekistan”, p. 70.
  • Makkamjan Abdoulkadyrov, “Monetary Reform: A Comparison of the Kyrgyz Republic and the Republic of Uzbekistan”, Comparative Economic Studies, Vol. 37, No. 3 (1995), p. 43.
  • Abdoulkadyrov, “Monetary Reform”, p. 44.
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development”, p. 739.
  • Abdoulkadyrov, “Monetary Reform”, pp. 44-45.
  • Christoph Rosenberg and Maarten De Zeeuw, Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan ‘ s Foreign Exchange Regime, Washington, DC, International Monetary Fund, 2001, p. 164.
  • Rosenberg and De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan ‘ s Foreign Exchange Regime”, 35 Ibid., p. 168. 36 Ibid., p. 174.
  • Ibid., p. 162; Pauline Jones Luong, “Political Obstacles to Economic Reform in Uzbekistan, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan: Strategies for Moving Ahead”, in C.R. Shiells and S. Sattar (eds). The Low-Income Countries of the Commonwealth of Independent States: Progress and Challenges in Transition, Washington, DC, IMF, 2004, pp. 208-209.
  • International Monetary Fund, The Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), Uzbekistan 2016 Report, 2016, p. 15.
  • Rosenberg and De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan ‘ s Foreign Exchange Regime”, p. 162.
  • Thilak Ranaweera, Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000, Washington, DC, The World Bank, 2003, p. 16.
  • Banerji and Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, p. 3.
  • Plyshevskii, “Reforming the Economies of the CIS: Uzbekistan”, p. 84; Rustam Dosumov, “Uzbekistan: A National Path to the Market”,p. 140.
  • These are approximate numbers. For precise statistics, refer to:Observatory of Economic Complexity, “What does Uzbekistan export?”,OEC, http://atlas.media.mit.edu/en/ visualize/tree_map/sitc/export/uzb/all/show/1993/ (last visited 5 January 2017).
  • Plyshevskii, “Reforming the Economies of the CIS: Uzbekistan”, p.93; R. Gidadhubli, “Economic Transition in Uzbekistan”,Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 29, No. 6 (1994), p. 295.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek puzzle Revisited”, p. 17.
  • US Energy Information Administration, “Petroleum and Other Liquids”, http://www. eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=RBRTE&f=M (last visited 20 January 2017).
  • In 2001-2002 season, state support for cotton producers peaked. The US paid 97 % of the world cotton price as subsidies, while in Greece and Spain, the amount of transfers reached to 1.9 and 2.5 times the world price, respectively. See John Baffes, “The “Cotton Problem”, The World Bank Research Observer, Vol. 20, No. 1 (2005), p. 116.
  • Per person global cotton consumption decreased from 4 kilograms in 1987 to slightly more than 3 kilograms by 2002 in the world. Baffes, “The Cotton Problem”, pp. 113-114.
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek model of economic development, 1991-1999”, p. 741; Rosenberg and De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan’s Foreign Exchange Regime”, p. 164.
  • Banerji and Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Transition Paths, p. 16.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, p. 21; Erkin Shadmanov, “Issues of Balanced Development in Uzbekistan Economy”,Perspectives of Innovations, Economics & Business, Vol. 5, No. 2 (2010), p. 43.
  • Rosenberg and De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan’s Foreign Exchange Regime”, pp. 160-161.
  • Thilak Ranaweera, Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, 1994-2000, Washington, DC, The World Bank, 2003, p. 9; Rosenberg & De Zeeuw, “Welfare Effects of Uzbekistan’ s Foreign Exchange Regime”, p. 160.
  • Malika Saidkhodjaeva, “Uzbekistan, An Expanding and Capital-Hungry Economy: Specific Inter-Related Opportunities in Energy, IT and Agriculture”,Energy Policy, Vol. 32, No. 10 (2004), p. 1243;Plyshevskii, “Reforming the Economies of the CIS”, p. 91.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, p. 21.
  • Kobil, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, pp. 19-21.
  • Gidadhubli, “Economic Transition in Uzbekistan”, p. 296.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p. 12.
  • Sheila Marnie and John Micklewright, “Targeting Social Assistance in a Transition Economy: The Mahallas in Uzbekistan”,Social Policy and Administration, Vol. 39, No. 4 (2005), p. 21.
  • Marnie and Micklewright, Targeting Social Assistance in a Transition Economy, p. 20. 63 Ibid., p. 17
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, p.12.
  • Twenty four banks are licensed by the CBRU to conduct foreign exchange transactions as of February 2016. See,International Monetary Fund, The Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions (AREAER), p. 3.
  • Alexandr Akimov and Brian Dollery, “Uzbekistan’s Financial System: An Evaluation of Twelve Years of Transition”,Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 48, No. 2 (2006), pp. 18-19.
  • Kobil Ruziev and Dipak Ghosh, “Banking Sector Development: A Case of Mixed Blessings?”,Problems of Economic Transition, Vol. 52, No. 2 (2009), p. 15.
  • Akimov and Dollery, “Uzbekistan’s Financial System”, p. 20.
  • Ruziev and Ghosh, “Banking Sector Development”, p. 15. 70 Ibid., pp. 9-10.
  • Ranaweera, Market Disequilibria and Inflation in Uzbekistan, p. 3.
  • Arup Banerji and Asad Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan: A Tale of Two Transition Paths, p. 9; Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development, 1991-1999”, p. 740; IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p. 12.
  • Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”, p. 22.
  • Pomfret,“The Uzbek Model of Economic Development”;Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”; Pomfret and Anderson, Uzbekistan.
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development”; Zettelmeyer, “The Uzbek Growth Puzzle”; Ruziev, Ghosh and Dow, “The Uzbek Puzzle Revisited”.
  • Islam Karimov, “Extended Session of the Cabinet of Ministers Takes Place in Tashkent”, Press Service of the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan, http://www.press-service.uz/ en/news/5226/ (last visited 15 January 2017).
  • Pomfret, “The Uzbek Model of Economic Development”, p. 740.
  • See, Peter Murrell, “What is Shock Terapy? What Did it Do in Poland and Russia?”, Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 2 (1993), pp. 111-140; Thomas Hall and John Elliott, “Poland and Russia: One Decade after Shock Therapy”, Journal of Economic Issues, Vol. 33, No. 2 (1999), pp. 305-314.
  • It is also a fact that Uzbekistan has undergone a comprehensive program of privatization. By 1994, according to official estimates, some 54.000 enterprises were privatized. See,Rustam Dosumov, “Uzbekistan: A National Path to the Market”, 1996, p. 151.
  • Banerji & Alam, Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, p. 17.
  • Gidadhubli, “Economic Transition in Uzbekistan”, p. 295.
  • Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan on the Threshold of the Twenty-first Century: Challenges to Stability and Progress, New York, St. Martin’s Press, 1998, p. 11.
  • International Monetary Fund, Uzbekistan, Position as of 31 January 2016, http://www. elibrary-areaer.imf.org/Pages/Reports.aspx (last visited 27 January 2017).
  • Akimov & Dollery, “Uzbekistan’s Financial System”, p. 30.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p. 14. 87 Ibid., p. 8.
  • The World Bank, “World Development Indicators, IFS and Balance of Payments databases of IMF, OECD”, http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world- development-indicators (last visited 24 January 2017).
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p.12. 91 Ibid., p.13. 92 Ibid., p. 4.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2012, p. 4.
  • Avinoam Idan and Brenda Shaffer, “The Foreign Policies of Post-Soviet Landlocked States”,Post-Soviet Affairs, Vol. 27, No. 3 (2011), p. 259.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2009, p. 4. 96 Ibid., p.10.
  • IHS Global Insight, Uzbekistan Country Report, 2012, p.10.
  • International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook October 2016”.
  • Karimov, Uzbekistan on the Threshold of the Twenty-first Century, pp. 12-14.
  • For accounts on Uzbek alliance behavior, see,Steven David, “Explaining Third World Alignment”,World Politics, Vol. 43, No. 2 (1991), pp. 233-257. For arguments based on omnibalancing theory, see,Fumagalli, “Alignments and Realignments in Central Asia”, in this respect.
  • John Herbst, “Karimov Urges Closer Cooperation with US, Commits to Frank Airing
  • of Differences”,Wikileaks, https://wikileaks.org/plusd/cables/00TASHKENT4223_a. html (last visited 5 January 2017).
  • USAID, http://us-foreign-aid.insidegov.com/l/187/Uzbekistan (last visited 5 January 2017).
  • The World Bank website states: “Net bilateral aid flows from the [Development Assistance Committee (DAC)] donors are the net disbursements of official development assistance (ODA) or official aid from the members of DAC. […] DAC members are: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Republic of Korea, Luxembourg, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovak Republic, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, United Kingdom, United States, and European Union Institutions. […]”
  • S. Adam Cardais and Sofia Persio, “Putin Praises Russian Olympic Judo Team
  • Uzbekistan to Ban Foreign Bases”,Transitions Online, http://www.tol.org/client/ article/23288-putin-praises-russian-olympic-judo-team-uzbekistan-to-ban-foreign- bases.html (last visited 1 January 2017).
  • “Uzbekistan: Government Takes On U.S. Gold Mining Company”,Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty, http://www.rferl.org/a/1070586.html (last visited 4 January 2017).
  • Fumagalli builds his theory on Steven David’s omnibalancing theory. See, Fumagalli, “Alignments and Realignments in Central Asia”, p. 254. For a critique of omnibalancing, see,Timur Dadabaev, “The Constructivist logic of Uzbekistan’s Foreign Policy in the Karimov Era and Beyond”,Central Asian Survey, Special Virtual Issue, http://www. tandf.co.uk/journals/pdf/8_Dadabaev_final%20220916.pdf (last visited 13 January 2017).
  • Gregory Gleason, “The Uzbek Expulsion of U.S. Forces and Realignment in Central Asia”, Problems of Post-Communism, Vol. 53, No. 2 (2006), pp. 49-60.
  • Idan & Shaffer, “The Foreign Policies of Post-Soviet Landlocked States”.
  • John Heathershaw, “Worlds Apart: the making and remaking of geopolitical space in the US–Uzbekistani strategic partnership”,Central Asian Survey, Vol. 26, No. 1 (2007), pp. 123-140.
  • Sergei Blagov, “Uzbekistan and Russia Sign Mutual Defense Pact”, Eurasianet, http:// www.eurasianet.org/departments/insight/articles/eav111505.shtml (last visited 13 January 2017).
  • GUAM was established in 1996 by Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and Moldova. Uzbekistan joined in 1999.
  • These acts of Karimov were evaluated as being “tactical maneuvers” by some authors. See, Gleason, “The Uzbek Expulsion of U.S. Forces and Realignment in Central Asia”, p. 57.
  • Teles Fazendeiro, “Keeping Face in the Public Sphere: Recognition, Discretion and Uzbekistan’s Relations with the United States and Germany, 1991- 2006”, Central Asian Survey, Vol. 34, No. 3 (2015), p. 349; Aleksandr Pikalov, “Uzbekistan Between the Great Powers: ABalancing Act or a Multi-Vectorial Approach?”,Central Asian Survey, Vol. 33, No. 3 (2014), p. 305.
  • “China to provide US$2.7bn loan to Uzbekistan”,UzDaily, https://www.uzdaily.com/ articles-id-36266.htm (last visited 3 January 2017).
  • Russian News Agency, “Russia pardons 95% of Uzbekistan Debt in Exchange for Waiver of Claims to Diamond Fund”,TASS, http://tass.com/economy/865991 (last visited 2 January 2017).
  • See, Joshua Feinman, Backlash against globalization: Déjà vu?, Deutsche Asset Management, 2016, pp. 6-8; Ana Swanson, “The World Today Looks a Bit Like it did Before World War I - But What Does that Mean?”,World Economic Forum, https://www. weforum.org/agenda/2017/01/why-the-world-looks-a-bit-like-it-did-before-world- war-i (last visited 15 January 2017).
  • World Bank, Load Dispatch and System Operation Study in Central Asian Power System,p.14, http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/961351468178154865/Load-dispatch- and-system-operation-study-in-Central-Asian-power-system(last visited 2 January 2017); Siegfried Grunwald, Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation: Power Sector Regional Master Plan, https://www.adb.org/projects/documents/central-asia-regional- economic-cooperation-power-sector-regional-master-plan-tacr(last visited 15 January 2017).
  • Joanna Lillis, “Uzbekistan Leader Warns of Water Wars in Central Asia”, http://www. eurasianet.org/node/65877 (last visited 27 December 2016).
  • Demir Azizov, “Uzbekistan Once Again Reminds Tajikistan About Danger of Rogun Plant Construction”, http://en.trend.az/casia/uzbekistan/2560086.html (last visited 23 December 2016); Peter Leonard, “Tajikistan, Uzbekistan Taking Cautious Steps to End Dam Impasse”,athttp://www.eurasianet.org/node/81256 (last visited 4 January 2017); Joshua Kucera, “Kazakhstan, UN Getting Involved In Rogun Mediation”,Eurasianet.org, 2013, http://www.eurasianet.org/node/66776 (last visited 4 January 2017).
  • Martin Sommer, Learning to Live with Cheaper Oil, p. 12, https://www.imf.org/external/ pubs/ft/dp/2016/mcd1603(last visited 15 January 2017).
  • The World Bank website states: “Examines growth trends for the global economy and how they affect developing countries [for] three-year forecasts for the global economy and long-term global scenarios which look ten years into the future.”
There are 107 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Political Science
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Halil Burak Sakal This is me

Publication Date April 1, 2017
Published in Issue Year 2017 Volume: 22 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Sakal, H. B. (2017). A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs, 22(1), 49-90.
AMA Sakal HB. A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan. PERCEPTIONS. April 2017;22(1):49-90.
Chicago Sakal, Halil Burak. “A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan”. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs 22, no. 1 (April 2017): 49-90.
EndNote Sakal HB (April 1, 2017) A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs 22 1 49–90.
IEEE H. B. Sakal, “A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan”, PERCEPTIONS, vol. 22, no. 1, pp. 49–90, 2017.
ISNAD Sakal, Halil Burak. “A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan”. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs 22/1 (April 2017), 49-90.
JAMA Sakal HB. A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan. PERCEPTIONS. 2017;22:49–90.
MLA Sakal, Halil Burak. “A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan”. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs, vol. 22, no. 1, 2017, pp. 49-90.
Vancouver Sakal HB. A Quarter-Century Pursuit of Independence: Politics of Trade, Energy, and Economic Development in Uzbekistan. PERCEPTIONS. 2017;22(1):49-90.