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Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?

Year 2011, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 3 - 26, 01.10.2011

Abstract

This paper argues that the framing of Iran’s policies as “the problem” for regional security and the attempts of the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council plus Germany P5+1 , especially the “Western” allies, to coerce Iran in negotiations over its nuclear program perpetuate not only pre-established tensions, but also the current diplomatic stalemate. The core aim of the paper is to propose an alternative, regionally led approach to Iran and its nuclear program. It argues that this could become an opportunity for regional security-building, if Iran is treated as an equal to its negotiating partners. With this aim it critically examines some core underlying causes of regional tensions and threat perceptions, seeks to identify opportunities for cooperation, and proposes treating Iran as a potential founding member of a regional framework managing and regulating the running, operational safety and proliferation safeguards of its and other emerging regional nuclear energy programs. Such a framework could be tied to the International Atomic Energy Agency IAEA . The paper examines the role Turkey together with Brazil, which has experience in negotiating nuclear cooperation agreements under political tensions, could play in initiating the process, which could lead to a Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in the Gulf, and what constraints it is likely to face.

References

  • Disclaimer: The analysis, opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the JSCSC, the UK MOD or any other government agency..
  • Brian Katulis, “The Middle East Goes Nuclear”, Foreign Policy, at http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/ posts/2009/03/25/going_nuclear_in_the_middle_east [all web documents last visited 1 May 2011].
  • Shalheveth Freier, “A Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in the Middle East and Effective Verification”, Disarmament, Vol. 16, No. 3 (1993), pp. 66-91.
  • Freier, “A Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in the Middle East and Effective Verification”, p. 74.
  • Ravid Barak, “Veteran Diplomat’s Rebuke of Netanyahu, Lieberman Strikes Chord with Colleagues”, Ha’aretz, 3 March 2011.
  • Philippe Naughton, “Olmert’s Nuclear Slip Up Sparks Outrage in Israel”, The Times, 12 December 2006.
  • “Arab League Vows to Drop Out of NPT, if Israel Admits it has Nuclear Weapons”, Ha’aretz, 5 March 2008.
  • Reuven Pedatzur, “An End to Nuclear Ambiguity”, Ha’aretz, 7 May 2010.
  • Afshin Molavi, “Iran and the Gulf States”, in Robin Wright (ed.), The Iran Primer, Washington DC, USIP, 2010, pp. 159-161.
  • Amir M. Haji-Yousefi, “Whose Agenda is Served by the Idea of a Shia Crescent?”, Alternatives: Turkish Jounal of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 1 (Spring 2009), pp. 114-135.
  • “Kuwait Trial Reveals Iran’s Hidden Hand”, Ya Libnan, 1 April 2011.
  • Gregory F. Giles, “The Islamic Republic of Iran and Unconventional Weapons”, in Peter R. Lavoy et al. (eds.), Planning the Unthinkable, Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1998, pp. 81f.; Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance - The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States, New Haven, Yale University Press, 2007, p. 6.
  • Ali Akbar Rezaei, “Foreign Policy Theories: Implications for the Foreign Policy Analysis of Iran”, in Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Mahjoob Zweiri (eds.), Iran’s Foreign Policy - From Khatemi to Ahmadinejad, Ithaca, Reading, 2008, p. 30.
  • Parsi, Treacherous Alliance - The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States, pp. 7f.
  • Gawdat Bahgat, “Iranian-Saudi Rapprochement: Prospects and Implications”, World Affairs, Vol. 162, No. 3 (Winter 2000), pp. 108-115.
  • Molavi, “Iran and the Gulf States”, p. 161.
  • David E. Sanger et al., “Around the World, Distress Over Iran”, New York Times, 28 November 2010.
  • Toby Harnden, “America’s Dream for a New Middle East”, The Daily Telegraph, 18 March 2003.
  • Frederic Wehrey et al., The Iraq Effect - The Middle East after the Iraq War, St. Monica, RAND, 2010.
  • Judith S. Yaphe, “The United States and Iran in Iraq: Risks and Opportunities”, in Ehteshami and Zwahiri (eds.), Iranian Foreign Policy From Khatami to Achmadinejad, p. 52.
  • Juan Cole, “Kuwaiti Cleric Differentiates between Iraqi Shia Nationalists and those Supporting Iran”, Informed Comment, at http://www.juancole.com/2008/05/sunni-kuwaiti-cleric-differentiates.html
  • Yaphe, “The United States and Iran in Iraq: Risks and Opportunities”, pp. 45-50.
  • Jane Kinnimont, “Castles Built on Sand”, Open Democracy, at http://www.opendemocracy.net/ conflict-middle_east_politics/bahrain_3846.jsp
  • Paul Rogers, “Libya, Bahrain and the Arab Spring”, Open Democracy, at http://www.opendemocracy. net/paul-rogers/libya-bahrain-and-arab-spring
  • Hayder al-Khoei, “Sectarianism and Conflict in Bahrain”, Open Democracy, at http://www. opendemocracy.net/hayder-al-khoei/sectarianism-and-conflict-in-bahrain
  • “Kuwait Trial Reveals Iran’s Hidden Hand”. See also Haji-Yousefi, “Whose Agenda is Served by the Idea of a Shia Crescent?”, pp. 120ff.
  • “Iran Military Denounced Saudi Killing in Yemen”, Reuters, 17 November 2009.
  • Haji-Yousefi, “Whose Agenda is Served by the Idea of a Shia Crescent?”.
  • Ed Pilkington, “US Vetoes UN Condemnation of Israeli Settlements”, The Guardian, 19 February 2011.
  • Matt Sugrue, “Saudi Arms Deal Moves Forward”, Arms Control Today, December 2010, at http:// www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_12/Saudi_Arms 32 Ibid.
  • Richard Weitz, “Evaluating the Proposed Saudi Arabian Arms Deal”, Second Line of Defense, at http:// www.sldinfo.com/?p=12421
  • Julian Borger, “Iran’s Offer of Help to Rebuild Afghanistan Heralds New Age of Diplomacy with the US”, The Guardian, 1 April 2009.
  • Avner Cohen, “Iranian Threat to Destroy Israel Doesn’t Hold Up”, Ha’aretz, 25 February 2010.
  • Neil Padukone, “US and Iran could become Strategic Allies - With India’s Help”, Christian Science Monitor, 20 February 2011.
  • Molavi, “Iran and the Gulf States”, p. 161.
  • Stephen Kinzer, Reset Middle East - Old Friends and New Alliances: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, Iran, London, I.B. Tauris, 2010.
  • George Friedman, “The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran”, Real Clear World, at http://www. realclearworld.com/articles/2011/01/11/the_turkish_role_in_negotiations_with_iran_99347.html
  • John C. Shenna, “The Case against the Case against Iran”, Middle East Journal, Vol. 64, No. 3 (Summer 2010), pp. 341-363.
  • Kinzer, “Reset Middle East - Old Friends and New Alliances: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, Iran”, p. 61.
  • Henri J. Barkey, “Iran and Turkey”, in Robin Wright (ed.), The Iran Primer, p. 166.
  • Friedman, “The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran”.
  • Thomas Lorenz and Joanna Kidd, “Turkey and Multilateral Nuclear Approaches in the Middle East”, Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 17, No. 3 (November 2010), p. 517. 45 Ibid.
  • Georges Lamazière and Roberto Jaguaribe, “Beyond Confidence-Building: Brazilian-Argentine Nuclear Co-operation”, Disarmament, Vol. 15, No. 3 (1992), pp. 103f.
  • Steven Heydemann, “Iran’s Alternative Allies”, in Robin Wright (ed.), The Iran Primer, p. 195.
  • Diego Santos Vieira de Jesus, “The Brazilian Way”, Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 17, No. 3 (November 2010), pp. 551-567.
  • Marcela Valente, “Nuclear Safeguards System an Example for the World”, IPS, at http://ipsnews.net/ news.asp?idnews=52697
  • Jose Goldenberg and Harold A. Feiveson, “Denuclearization in Argentina and Brazil”, Arms Control Today, Vol. 24, No. 2 (March 1994), pp. 10-14.
  • Lamazière and Jaguaribei, “Beyond Confidence-Building: Brazilian-Argentine Nuclear Co-operation”, pp. 103 and 105. 52 Ibid., p. 104.
  • Julio C. Carasales, “Argentina and Brazil: Nuclear Non-Acquisition and Confidence-Building”, Disarmament, Vol. 15, No. 3 (1992), pp. 94f.
  • de Jesus, “The Brazilian Way”, p. 554.
  • Gregoire Mallard, “Can the Euratom Treaty Inspire the Middle East?”, Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 15, No. 3 (November 2008), pp. 459-477.
  • Goldenberg and Feiveson, “Denuclearization in Argentina and Brazil”, pp. 12ff.; Carasales, “Argentina and Brazil: Nuclear Non-Acquisition and Confidence-Building”, pp. 93f.
  • “Iran hails Turkey’s Nuclear Support”, Al Jazeera, at http://english.aljazeera.net/news/ europe/2009/10/2009102711739736523.html
  • “Turkey, Gulf States Eye Increased Cooperation”, glObserver, at http://www.globserver.com/en/press/ turkey-gulf-states-eye-increased-cooperation-14012011
  • “Russia, Qatar Sign Memorandum of Cooperation on Peaceful Nuclear Use”, Nuclear Power Daily, at http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Russia_Qatar_Sign_Memorandum_Of_Cooperation_ On_Peaceful_Nuclear_Use_999.html
  • Olivier Roy, “Post-Islamic Revolution”, The European Institute, at http://www.europeaninstitute.org/ February-2011/by-oliver-roy.html
  • Nuh Yilmaz, “New Turkey and the Arab Spring?”, Open Democracy, at http://www.opendemocracy. net/nuh-yilmaz/new-turkey-and-arab-spring
  • Ian Kenyon, “The Project for a Gulf Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction”, IPPNW, at http:// www.ippnw.ch/content/pdf/monte_veritas/I_Kenyon.pdf
  • “Egypt Tells Israel it is Committed to Peace Treaty”, Reuters, 24 March 2011.
Year 2011, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 3 - 26, 01.10.2011

Abstract

References

  • Disclaimer: The analysis, opinions and conclusions expressed or implied in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily represent the views of the JSCSC, the UK MOD or any other government agency..
  • Brian Katulis, “The Middle East Goes Nuclear”, Foreign Policy, at http://lynch.foreignpolicy.com/ posts/2009/03/25/going_nuclear_in_the_middle_east [all web documents last visited 1 May 2011].
  • Shalheveth Freier, “A Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in the Middle East and Effective Verification”, Disarmament, Vol. 16, No. 3 (1993), pp. 66-91.
  • Freier, “A Nuclear Weapons Free Zone in the Middle East and Effective Verification”, p. 74.
  • Ravid Barak, “Veteran Diplomat’s Rebuke of Netanyahu, Lieberman Strikes Chord with Colleagues”, Ha’aretz, 3 March 2011.
  • Philippe Naughton, “Olmert’s Nuclear Slip Up Sparks Outrage in Israel”, The Times, 12 December 2006.
  • “Arab League Vows to Drop Out of NPT, if Israel Admits it has Nuclear Weapons”, Ha’aretz, 5 March 2008.
  • Reuven Pedatzur, “An End to Nuclear Ambiguity”, Ha’aretz, 7 May 2010.
  • Afshin Molavi, “Iran and the Gulf States”, in Robin Wright (ed.), The Iran Primer, Washington DC, USIP, 2010, pp. 159-161.
  • Amir M. Haji-Yousefi, “Whose Agenda is Served by the Idea of a Shia Crescent?”, Alternatives: Turkish Jounal of International Affairs, Vol. 8, No. 1 (Spring 2009), pp. 114-135.
  • “Kuwait Trial Reveals Iran’s Hidden Hand”, Ya Libnan, 1 April 2011.
  • Gregory F. Giles, “The Islamic Republic of Iran and Unconventional Weapons”, in Peter R. Lavoy et al. (eds.), Planning the Unthinkable, Ithaca, Cornell University Press, 1998, pp. 81f.; Trita Parsi, Treacherous Alliance - The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States, New Haven, Yale University Press, 2007, p. 6.
  • Ali Akbar Rezaei, “Foreign Policy Theories: Implications for the Foreign Policy Analysis of Iran”, in Anoushiravan Ehteshami and Mahjoob Zweiri (eds.), Iran’s Foreign Policy - From Khatemi to Ahmadinejad, Ithaca, Reading, 2008, p. 30.
  • Parsi, Treacherous Alliance - The Secret Dealings of Israel, Iran and the United States, pp. 7f.
  • Gawdat Bahgat, “Iranian-Saudi Rapprochement: Prospects and Implications”, World Affairs, Vol. 162, No. 3 (Winter 2000), pp. 108-115.
  • Molavi, “Iran and the Gulf States”, p. 161.
  • David E. Sanger et al., “Around the World, Distress Over Iran”, New York Times, 28 November 2010.
  • Toby Harnden, “America’s Dream for a New Middle East”, The Daily Telegraph, 18 March 2003.
  • Frederic Wehrey et al., The Iraq Effect - The Middle East after the Iraq War, St. Monica, RAND, 2010.
  • Judith S. Yaphe, “The United States and Iran in Iraq: Risks and Opportunities”, in Ehteshami and Zwahiri (eds.), Iranian Foreign Policy From Khatami to Achmadinejad, p. 52.
  • Juan Cole, “Kuwaiti Cleric Differentiates between Iraqi Shia Nationalists and those Supporting Iran”, Informed Comment, at http://www.juancole.com/2008/05/sunni-kuwaiti-cleric-differentiates.html
  • Yaphe, “The United States and Iran in Iraq: Risks and Opportunities”, pp. 45-50.
  • Jane Kinnimont, “Castles Built on Sand”, Open Democracy, at http://www.opendemocracy.net/ conflict-middle_east_politics/bahrain_3846.jsp
  • Paul Rogers, “Libya, Bahrain and the Arab Spring”, Open Democracy, at http://www.opendemocracy. net/paul-rogers/libya-bahrain-and-arab-spring
  • Hayder al-Khoei, “Sectarianism and Conflict in Bahrain”, Open Democracy, at http://www. opendemocracy.net/hayder-al-khoei/sectarianism-and-conflict-in-bahrain
  • “Kuwait Trial Reveals Iran’s Hidden Hand”. See also Haji-Yousefi, “Whose Agenda is Served by the Idea of a Shia Crescent?”, pp. 120ff.
  • “Iran Military Denounced Saudi Killing in Yemen”, Reuters, 17 November 2009.
  • Haji-Yousefi, “Whose Agenda is Served by the Idea of a Shia Crescent?”.
  • Ed Pilkington, “US Vetoes UN Condemnation of Israeli Settlements”, The Guardian, 19 February 2011.
  • Matt Sugrue, “Saudi Arms Deal Moves Forward”, Arms Control Today, December 2010, at http:// www.armscontrol.org/act/2010_12/Saudi_Arms 32 Ibid.
  • Richard Weitz, “Evaluating the Proposed Saudi Arabian Arms Deal”, Second Line of Defense, at http:// www.sldinfo.com/?p=12421
  • Julian Borger, “Iran’s Offer of Help to Rebuild Afghanistan Heralds New Age of Diplomacy with the US”, The Guardian, 1 April 2009.
  • Avner Cohen, “Iranian Threat to Destroy Israel Doesn’t Hold Up”, Ha’aretz, 25 February 2010.
  • Neil Padukone, “US and Iran could become Strategic Allies - With India’s Help”, Christian Science Monitor, 20 February 2011.
  • Molavi, “Iran and the Gulf States”, p. 161.
  • Stephen Kinzer, Reset Middle East - Old Friends and New Alliances: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, Iran, London, I.B. Tauris, 2010.
  • George Friedman, “The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran”, Real Clear World, at http://www. realclearworld.com/articles/2011/01/11/the_turkish_role_in_negotiations_with_iran_99347.html
  • John C. Shenna, “The Case against the Case against Iran”, Middle East Journal, Vol. 64, No. 3 (Summer 2010), pp. 341-363.
  • Kinzer, “Reset Middle East - Old Friends and New Alliances: Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey, Iran”, p. 61.
  • Henri J. Barkey, “Iran and Turkey”, in Robin Wright (ed.), The Iran Primer, p. 166.
  • Friedman, “The Turkish Role in Negotiations with Iran”.
  • Thomas Lorenz and Joanna Kidd, “Turkey and Multilateral Nuclear Approaches in the Middle East”, Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 17, No. 3 (November 2010), p. 517. 45 Ibid.
  • Georges Lamazière and Roberto Jaguaribe, “Beyond Confidence-Building: Brazilian-Argentine Nuclear Co-operation”, Disarmament, Vol. 15, No. 3 (1992), pp. 103f.
  • Steven Heydemann, “Iran’s Alternative Allies”, in Robin Wright (ed.), The Iran Primer, p. 195.
  • Diego Santos Vieira de Jesus, “The Brazilian Way”, Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 17, No. 3 (November 2010), pp. 551-567.
  • Marcela Valente, “Nuclear Safeguards System an Example for the World”, IPS, at http://ipsnews.net/ news.asp?idnews=52697
  • Jose Goldenberg and Harold A. Feiveson, “Denuclearization in Argentina and Brazil”, Arms Control Today, Vol. 24, No. 2 (March 1994), pp. 10-14.
  • Lamazière and Jaguaribei, “Beyond Confidence-Building: Brazilian-Argentine Nuclear Co-operation”, pp. 103 and 105. 52 Ibid., p. 104.
  • Julio C. Carasales, “Argentina and Brazil: Nuclear Non-Acquisition and Confidence-Building”, Disarmament, Vol. 15, No. 3 (1992), pp. 94f.
  • de Jesus, “The Brazilian Way”, p. 554.
  • Gregoire Mallard, “Can the Euratom Treaty Inspire the Middle East?”, Nonproliferation Review, Vol. 15, No. 3 (November 2008), pp. 459-477.
  • Goldenberg and Feiveson, “Denuclearization in Argentina and Brazil”, pp. 12ff.; Carasales, “Argentina and Brazil: Nuclear Non-Acquisition and Confidence-Building”, pp. 93f.
  • “Iran hails Turkey’s Nuclear Support”, Al Jazeera, at http://english.aljazeera.net/news/ europe/2009/10/2009102711739736523.html
  • “Turkey, Gulf States Eye Increased Cooperation”, glObserver, at http://www.globserver.com/en/press/ turkey-gulf-states-eye-increased-cooperation-14012011
  • “Russia, Qatar Sign Memorandum of Cooperation on Peaceful Nuclear Use”, Nuclear Power Daily, at http://www.nuclearpowerdaily.com/reports/Russia_Qatar_Sign_Memorandum_Of_Cooperation_ On_Peaceful_Nuclear_Use_999.html
  • Olivier Roy, “Post-Islamic Revolution”, The European Institute, at http://www.europeaninstitute.org/ February-2011/by-oliver-roy.html
  • Nuh Yilmaz, “New Turkey and the Arab Spring?”, Open Democracy, at http://www.opendemocracy. net/nuh-yilmaz/new-turkey-and-arab-spring
  • Ian Kenyon, “The Project for a Gulf Zone Free of Weapons of Mass Destruction”, IPPNW, at http:// www.ippnw.ch/content/pdf/monte_veritas/I_Kenyon.pdf
  • “Egypt Tells Israel it is Committed to Peace Treaty”, Reuters, 24 March 2011.
There are 59 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Andrea Ellner This is me

Publication Date October 1, 2011
Published in Issue Year 2011 Volume: 16 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Ellner, A. (2011). Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs, 16(2), 3-26.
AMA Ellner A. Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?. PERCEPTIONS. October 2011;16(2):3-26.
Chicago Ellner, Andrea. “Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?”. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs 16, no. 2 (October 2011): 3-26.
EndNote Ellner A (October 1, 2011) Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs 16 2 3–26.
IEEE A. Ellner, “Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?”, PERCEPTIONS, vol. 16, no. 2, pp. 3–26, 2011.
ISNAD Ellner, Andrea. “Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?”. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs 16/2 (October 2011), 3-26.
JAMA Ellner A. Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?. PERCEPTIONS. 2011;16:3–26.
MLA Ellner, Andrea. “Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?”. PERCEPTIONS: Journal of International Affairs, vol. 16, no. 2, 2011, pp. 3-26.
Vancouver Ellner A. Iran - Challenge or Opportunity for Regional Security?. PERCEPTIONS. 2011;16(2):3-26.