The Risk-Based Analysis of Climate Change: The Arctic as a Pressing Security Concern within NATO’s Strategic Framework and Finland’s Accession to NATO

Year 2023, Volume: 28 Issue: 2, 155 - 172, 26.12.2023

Göktuğ Kıprızlı

Abstract

Climate change is a multifaceted problem that has links to ecological transformations, geographical alternations, geostrategic shifts, and political tensions. As a result, it multiplies security challenges for states and international organizations. To capture the multilayered dimensions of climate change, this article recognizes the theoretical model of securitization as a spectrum consisting of threat-based and risk-based security logics. The article explores how the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and Finland address climate change and, by extension, the challenges emerging in the Arctic region. While NATO pays close attention to climate resilience for preserving the Allied operational effectiveness and ensuring its role in defense and deterrence, both NATO and Finland articulate their concerns over Russia’s growing military activities and presence in the High North, where Moscow finds strategic opportunities thanks to the increasing Arctic accessibility because of climate change. The article sheds light on a discussion about potential competition in the Arctic region and points out the paths that might lead to tension beyond it.

Keywords

Climate change, Arctic, riskification, NATO, Finland

References

• References are indicated in the article.