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Doğrudan yabancı yatırımları, ticaret politikaları ve Türkiye'de ekonomik büyüme: ARDL analizi

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 1 - 11, 22.06.2020

Abstract

Türkiye ekonomisi 2002 ve 2019
döneminde tek parti yönetimi altında istikrarlı bir büyüme yaşadı. Çekici bir
coğrafi konum, genç bir nüfus, ticaret engellerini hafifletilmesi, ihracata
dayalı büyüme stratejisi ve siyasi istikrar, bu dönemde büyük miktarda doğrudan
yabancı yatırımın (DYY) Türkiye'ye gelmesini sağladı. DYY hem yerel özel
yatırımları tamamlamakta hem de hızlı teknoloji transferini mümkün hale
getirmektedir ve dolayısıyla ekonomik kalkınmayı daha da teşvik etmektedir. Bu
çalışma DYY’nin ve ticarete açık olmanın Türkiye ekonomisi üzerindeki
etkilerini araştırmayı amaçlamaktadır. Bu çalışmada, reel GSYİH ile istihdam,
sermaye oluşumu, DYY ve ticarete açık olmak arasındaki ilişkiyi araştırmak için
Otoregresif Dağıtılmış Gecikme (Autoregressive Distributed Lag-ARDL) yöntemi
kullanılmıştır. ARDL analiz sonuçları, istihdamın, doğrudan yabancı
yatırımların ve ticarete açık olmanın Türkiye'deki ekonomik kalkınma üzerinde
olumlu ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı bir etkisinin var olduğunu
göstermektedir. Bu sonuçlar, istihdam, DYY ve ticarete açık olmanın Türkiye
için ekonomik büyüme ve kalkınmada kilit faktörlerden olduklarını
doğrulamaktadır. Bu nedenle Türkiye, ekonomik büyümeyi finanse etmek ve teknolojik
gelişmelere ayak uydurmak için ticaretin önündeki engelleri azaltmalı ve DYY
girişini teşvik etmelidir.

References

  • Alfaro, Laura, Areendam Chanda, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Selin Sayek. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets." Journal of international economics 64, no. 1 (2004): 89-112.
  • Bayraktar, F. (2003). Dünya'da ve Türkiye'de Doğrudan Sermaye Yatırımları. Ankara: Türkiye Kalkınma Bankası A.Ş.
  • Bengoa, M., & Sanchez-Robles, B. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Freedom and Growth: New Evidence from Latin America. European Journal of Political Economy.
  • Bibi, S., Ahmad, S. T., & Rashid, H. (2014). Impact of trade openness, FDI, exchange rate and inflation on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 4(2), 236.
  • Blonigen, B. A. (2005). A review of the empirical literature on FDI determinants. Atlantic economic journal, 33(4), 383-403.
  • Borensztein, E., Lee, J.-W., & De Grigorio, J. (1998). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth? Journal of International Economics.
  • Brecher, R. A., Choudhri, E., & Schembri, L. (1996). International spillovers of knowledge and sectoral productivity growth: some evidence for Canada and the United States. Journal of International Economics.
  • Carkovic, M., & Levine, R. (2002). Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate Economic Growth?
  • Choe, J. Il. (2003). Do Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Investment Promote Economic Growth? Review of Development Economics, 7(1), 44–57.
  • De Mello, L. R. (1999). Foreign direct investment-led growth: evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford economic papers, 51(1), 133-151.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dunning, J. H. (2002). Global capitalism, FDI and competitiveness (Vol. 2). Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (1996). Trade in ideas Patenting and productivity in the OECD. Journal of International Economics.
  • Fotopoulos, G., & Louri, H. (2004). Firm growth and FDI: are multinationals stimulating local industrial development?. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 4(3), 163-189.
  • Geyikdağı, N. (2011). Foreign Investment in the Ottoman Empire: International Trade and Relations 1854 - 1914. London: IB Tauris Publishers.
  • Hu, A. G., & Jefferson, G. H. (2002). FDI impact and spillover: evidence from China's electronic and textile industries. World Economy, 25(8), 1063-1076.
  • Khaliq, A., & Noy, I. (2007). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Sectoral Data in Indonesia.
  • Margeirsson, O. (2015). Foreign direct investment: A focused literature review. Binzagr Institute for Sustainable Prosperity Working Paper, (104).
  • Markusen, J., & Venables, A. (1997). Foreign Direct Investment as a Catalyst for Industrial Development. NBER Working Paper Series.
  • Mottaleb, K. A., & Kalirajan, K. (2010). Determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries: A comparative analysis. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 4(4), 369-404.
  • Mwakanemela, K. (2014). Impact of FDI inflows, trade openness and inflation on the manufacturing export performance of Tanzania: An econometric study. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 3(5), 151.
  • Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration Technique: Application and Interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 63-91.
  • OECD. (2002). Foreign Direct Investment for Development. Paris.
  • Omankhanlen, A. E (2011) The Effect of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment and Its Relationship with Economic Growth in Nigeria. EA1, 1. ISSN 1584-0409.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Perron, P. (1990). Testing for a unit root in a time series with a changing mean. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8(2), 153-162.
  • Smarzynska, B. (2002). Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? Policy Research Working Paper.
  • T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yatırım Ofisi. (2019). Retrieved from http://www.invest.gov.tr/tr-TR/investmentguide/investorsguide/Pages/FDIinTurkey.aspx
  • Untied Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (1998). World Investment Report 1998. Geneva: United Nations Publication.
  • Weigel, D. R., Gregory, N. F., & Wagle, D. M. (1997). Foreign direct investment. The World Bank.

Foreign Direct Investments, Trade Policies, and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Analysis

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 1 - 11, 22.06.2020

Abstract

Turkish economy experienced a steady growth under a single party administration for the period of 2002 and 2019. An attractive geographical location, a young population, easing of trade barriers, an export lead growth strategy, and political stability attracted large sums of foreign direct investment (FDI) to Turkey during this period. FDI both complements the domestic private investments and makes a rapid technology transfer possible and, hence, stimulates economic development further. This paper aims at exploring impact the FDI and trade openness on the Turkish economy. This study uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) method to investigate the relationship among real GDP and employment, capital formation, FDI, and trade openness. ARDL analysis results show some evidence of a positive and statistically meaningful effect of employment, FDI, and trade openness on the economic development in Turkey. These results confirm that employment, FDI and trade openness are key factors in economic growth and development for Turkey. Therefore, Turkey should reduce barriers to trade and encourage inflow of FDI in order to finance economic growth and keep up with the technological advancements.

References

  • Alfaro, Laura, Areendam Chanda, Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan, and Selin Sayek. "FDI and economic growth: the role of local financial markets." Journal of international economics 64, no. 1 (2004): 89-112.
  • Bayraktar, F. (2003). Dünya'da ve Türkiye'de Doğrudan Sermaye Yatırımları. Ankara: Türkiye Kalkınma Bankası A.Ş.
  • Bengoa, M., & Sanchez-Robles, B. (2003). Foreign Direct Investment, Economic Freedom and Growth: New Evidence from Latin America. European Journal of Political Economy.
  • Bibi, S., Ahmad, S. T., & Rashid, H. (2014). Impact of trade openness, FDI, exchange rate and inflation on economic growth: A case study of Pakistan. International Journal of Accounting and Financial Reporting, 4(2), 236.
  • Blonigen, B. A. (2005). A review of the empirical literature on FDI determinants. Atlantic economic journal, 33(4), 383-403.
  • Borensztein, E., Lee, J.-W., & De Grigorio, J. (1998). How Does Foreign Direct Investment Affect Economic Growth? Journal of International Economics.
  • Brecher, R. A., Choudhri, E., & Schembri, L. (1996). International spillovers of knowledge and sectoral productivity growth: some evidence for Canada and the United States. Journal of International Economics.
  • Carkovic, M., & Levine, R. (2002). Does Foreign Direct Investment Accelerate Economic Growth?
  • Choe, J. Il. (2003). Do Foreign Direct Investment and Gross Domestic Investment Promote Economic Growth? Review of Development Economics, 7(1), 44–57.
  • De Mello, L. R. (1999). Foreign direct investment-led growth: evidence from time series and panel data. Oxford economic papers, 51(1), 133-151.
  • Dickey, D. A., & Fuller, W. A. (1979). Distribution of the estimators for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Journal of the American statistical association, 74(366a), 427-431.
  • Dunning, J. H. (2002). Global capitalism, FDI and competitiveness (Vol. 2). Edward Elgar Publishing.
  • Eaton, J., & Kortum, S. (1996). Trade in ideas Patenting and productivity in the OECD. Journal of International Economics.
  • Fotopoulos, G., & Louri, H. (2004). Firm growth and FDI: are multinationals stimulating local industrial development?. Journal of Industry, Competition and Trade, 4(3), 163-189.
  • Geyikdağı, N. (2011). Foreign Investment in the Ottoman Empire: International Trade and Relations 1854 - 1914. London: IB Tauris Publishers.
  • Hu, A. G., & Jefferson, G. H. (2002). FDI impact and spillover: evidence from China's electronic and textile industries. World Economy, 25(8), 1063-1076.
  • Khaliq, A., & Noy, I. (2007). Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth: Empirical Evidence from Sectoral Data in Indonesia.
  • Margeirsson, O. (2015). Foreign direct investment: A focused literature review. Binzagr Institute for Sustainable Prosperity Working Paper, (104).
  • Markusen, J., & Venables, A. (1997). Foreign Direct Investment as a Catalyst for Industrial Development. NBER Working Paper Series.
  • Mottaleb, K. A., & Kalirajan, K. (2010). Determinants of foreign direct investment in developing countries: A comparative analysis. Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, 4(4), 369-404.
  • Mwakanemela, K. (2014). Impact of FDI inflows, trade openness and inflation on the manufacturing export performance of Tanzania: An econometric study. International Journal of Academic Research in Economics and Management Sciences, 3(5), 151.
  • Nkoro, E., & Uko, A. K. (2016). Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) Cointegration Technique: Application and Interpretation. Journal of Statistical and Econometric Methods, 63-91.
  • OECD. (2002). Foreign Direct Investment for Development. Paris.
  • Omankhanlen, A. E (2011) The Effect of Exchange Rate and Inflation on Foreign Direct Investment and Its Relationship with Economic Growth in Nigeria. EA1, 1. ISSN 1584-0409.
  • Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., & Smith, R. J. (2001). Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of applied econometrics, 16(3), 289-326.
  • Perron, P. (1990). Testing for a unit root in a time series with a changing mean. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 8(2), 153-162.
  • Smarzynska, B. (2002). Does Foreign Direct Investment Increase the Productivity of Domestic Firms? Policy Research Working Paper.
  • T.C. Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yatırım Ofisi. (2019). Retrieved from http://www.invest.gov.tr/tr-TR/investmentguide/investorsguide/Pages/FDIinTurkey.aspx
  • Untied Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). (1998). World Investment Report 1998. Geneva: United Nations Publication.
  • Weigel, D. R., Gregory, N. F., & Wagle, D. M. (1997). Foreign direct investment. The World Bank.
There are 30 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Business Administration
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Rıfgı Bağcı

Haşmet Gökırmak

Publication Date June 22, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 7 Issue: 1

Cite

APA Bağcı, R., & Gökırmak, H. (2020). Foreign Direct Investments, Trade Policies, and Economic Growth in Turkey: An ARDL Analysis. Pamukkale İşletme Ve Bilişim Yönetimi Dergisi, 7(1), 1-11.

Pamukkale Journal of Business and Information Management