Regional Repercussions of Transboundary Crises: A Geopolitical and Security Analysis of the Iran Crisis from the Perspective of Armenia

Abstract

This study evaluates how Armenia, located in the South Caucasus, was influenced by a large-scale conflict in the Middle East and how it reshaped national security strategies in the process. Military developments in Iran have led to a significant shift in the regional balance of power and necessitated a re-evaluation of Armenia’s traditional security approach. The study theoretically assembles Regional Security Complex Theory with small states literature, elucidating both the structural boundaries of regional security dynamics and the strategic preferences of actors with capacity asymmetry. On the basis of qualitative research method, the study employs a single-case study design and uses document analysis as its primary data collection method. The findings demonstrate that Iran played a critical balancing role for Armenia prior to the intervention; nevertheless, the intervention weakened this role. This casus has led the Armenian government to establish novel security associations with Western and non-regional actors and has also led it to develop more flexible and pragmatic strategies with current threat sources. Consequently, the study contributes to the literature by presenting the capacity of a regional conflict to transform the security apprehensions and foreign policy orientations of states in neighboring security complexes.

Keywords

• South Caucasus
• Regional security complex theory
• Armenia
• Iran

Sınırötesi Krizlerin Bölgesel Yansımaları: Ermenistan Perspektifinden İran Krizinin Jeopolitik ve Güvenlik Analizi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Güney Kafkasya’da yer alan Ermenistan’ın Orta Doğu’da meydana gelen geniş ölçekli bir çatışmadan nasıl etkilendiğini ve bu süreçte ulusal güvenlik stratejilerini nasıl yeniden şekillendirdiğini analiz etmektedir. İran’da yaşanan askeri gelişmeler, bölgesel güç dengesinde önemli bir kırılmaya yol açmış ve Ermenistan’ın geleneksel güvenlik anlayışının yeniden değerlendirilmesini gerekli kılmıştır. Çalışma, teorik olarak Bölgesel Güvenlik Kompleksi Teorisi ile küçük devlet literatürünü birleştirerek, hem bölgesel güvenlik dinamiklerinin yapısal sınırlarını hem de kapasite asimetrisine sahip aktörlerin stratejik tercihlerini açıklamaktadır. Nitel araştırma yöntemine dayanan bu çalışma, teorik genelleme yapmaya imkân tanıyan kritik bir örnek incelemesi ile yürütülmüş ve veri toplama sürecinde doküman analizinden yararlanılmıştır. Elde edilen bulgular, müdahale öncesinde İran’ın Ermenistan için kritik bir dengeleyici rol üstlendiğini; ancak söz konusu müdahalenin bu rolü zayıflattığını göstermektedir. Bu olgu, Erivan yönetimini Batılı ve bölge dışı aktörlerle yeni güvenlik ilişkileri kurmaya yöneltmiş; aynı zamanda mevcut tehdit kaynaklarıyla daha esnek ve pragmatik stratejiler geliştirmesine neden olmuştur. Sonuç olarak çalışma, bölgesel bir çatışmanın, komşu güvenlik komplekslerinde yer alan devletlerin güvenlik algılarını ve dış politika yönelimlerini dönüştürme kapasitesini ortaya koyarak literatüre katkı sunmaktadır.

Keywords

• Güney Kafkasya
• Bölgesel güvenlik kompleksi teorisi
• Ermenistan
• İran

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