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Year 2024, Issue: 49, 9 - 64, 27.08.2024

Alev Kılıç

Abstract

Bu incelemede Kasım 2023-Haziran 2024 tarihleri döneminde Ermenistan’daki iç gelişmeler, dış dinamikler, Azerbaycan ile Barış Anlaşması sürecindeki gelişmeler ile Türkiye-Ermenistan arasındaki ilişkiler ve normalleşme sürecinin seyri ele alınmaktadır.

Dönem Ermenistan’ın gerek iç, gerek dış politikası bakımından kırılma noktası veya dönüm noktası sayılabilecek bir hareketliliğin yaşandığı bir zaman dilimi olmuştur. Ermenistan Başbakanı Nikol Paşinyan’ın yönetimi yerleşik bazı tabuları yıkma yönünde cesaretli ve riskli başlangıçlar yapmıştır. Ancak, hiç değilse dönem içinde, Paşinyan’ın beyanları sözde kalmış, fiiliyata geçirilememiştir.

Paşinyan yönetiminin geçmişin bağnazlıklarından kurtulmak üzere; geçmişe kilitlenmeye neden olan ve günümüz gerçeklerine ters düşen Anayasada, ulusal amblemde, milli marşta, okul müfredatında ve soykırım iddiasında değişiklik yapma girişimleri olmuştur. Bu girişimler içte eski rejim yanlılarını, aşırı milliyetçileri ve en önemlisi Kiliseyi; dışta ise, varlıklarını ve geçim kaynaklarını aşırı milliyetçiliği körüklemekte gören militan Ermeni diaspora örgütlerini ve bunu Türkiye üzerinde siyasi baskı aracı olarak kullanabilmeyi düşünen üçüncü devletleri harekete geçirmiştir. Ayrıca, Batı’da gündeme gelen kökten dinci Hristiyanlık akımı, Ermenileri Hristiyan dayanışmasının sembolü haline getirmeye ve Ermenistan’a yardımı ideolojik bir çerçeveye oturtmaya çalışmıştır. Bazı ülkeler, kuyruğun başı yönlendirmesine olanak sağlayan bir zafiyet içinde, bu girişim ve taleplere boyun eğmeyi siyasi kazanım tercihi olarak görebilmiştir.

Ermenistan Apostolik Kilisesi çağ dışı bir yaklaşımla, din ve devlet ayırımını hiçe sayarak, Başbakan Paşinyan’ı devirmek üzere Başbakanlığa adaylığını ilan eden bir başpiskoposun kimliğinde muhalefetin liderliğine öncülük yapmıştır. Batıdaki diasporanın muhalefete desteği azalmadan devam etmiş, bu durum Batı’nın tavşana kaç, tazıya tut yaklaşımı görüntüsünü vermiştir.

Karabağ işgalinin bütünüyle sona erdirilmesiyle Azerbaycan ile kalıcı bir barışın önündeki en büyük engel kalkmış, müzakere konuları sınır tespiti ve ulaşım bağlantı ve kolaylıklarına odaklanmıştır. Türkiye bu müzakereleri desteklemiştir. Bu yaklaşım dönem içinde bir kez daha en yüksek düzeyde, Türkiye Cumhurbaşkanı Erdoğan-Başbakan Paşinyan görüşmesinde teyit edilmiştir.

Ermenistan’ın Ukrayna Savaşı nedeniyle ikinci bir cephede mücadeleyi göze alamayan Rusya’dan uzaklaşma olanağı bulması ve Batı yanlısı bir çizgiye geçmesi, Batı ile bağlantısını oluşturan komşusu Türkiye ile ilişkilerini normalleştirme gereğini ortaya koymuştur. Türkiye normalleşme sürecini esasen baştan beri samimiyetle desteklemiştir. Bununla beraber, Türkiye bunu bölgesel bir çerçevede göre gelmiş, Ermenistan’ın Azerbaycan ile ilişkilerinin de eş zamanlı normalleşmesinde, Gürcistan-Ermenistan-Azerbaycan bölgesel istikrarında değerlendirmiştir.

Keywords

Paşinyan, Mirzoyan, Putin, Lavrov, Blinken, Erdoğan, Fidan, Macron, Reisi, II. Karekin, Başpiskopos Galstanyan, Daşnaksutyun (EDF), Zangezur koridoru, KGAÖ, AEB, NATO

Facts and Comments

Abstract

This article covers the period of November 2023-June 2024 of the internal developments in Armenia, the foreign dynamics shaping the international relations of Armenia, the ongoing process of signing the Peace Agreement with Azerbaijan and the bilateral relations of Türkiye and Armenia in the light of the process of normalisation of their relations.

The period under review has been a time frame where acts have been put into motion that can be qualified as a breaking or turning point both internally and externally. The administration of the Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan has undertaken some courageous and risky steps, breaking with established taboos. However, words and promises have not necessarily been carried out to deeds, at least not during the period under review.

With a view to overcoming past bigoted concepts, the initiatives encouraged or condoned by the Pashinyan administration to make changes or amends in the Constitution, national hymn and symbols, school curriculum, and genocide narrative, which help cement the past and cause rupture with the present, has led to reactions. Internal reactions have come from partisans of the former government, extreme nationalists and most importantly the Church, while external reactions have come from the militant organizations of the Diaspora who perceive their survival and livelihood in provoking radical and militant nationalism, and third party states wishing to use this as a vehicle to put political pressure on Türkiye. On the other hand, Christian fundamentalism that appeared in the West has endeavored to project Armenians as a symbol of Christian solidarity, thus to base assistance to Armenia on ideological grounds. Some states, allowing the tail to wag the dog, have seen political advantages in fulfilling these initiatives and demands.

Anachronistically and in total disregard of separation of church and state, the Apostolic Church of Armenia took the lead for the opposition in the person of an archbishop, who announced his candidacy for replacing Pashinyan as Prime Minister. The support of the diaspora in the West for the opposition continued undiminished, raising the spectre for the West, running with the hare and hunting with the hounds.

Following the termination of the occupation of Karabakh, the major obstacle to achieving a lasting peace with Azerbaijan has been removed, limiting the issues for negotiations to border demarcation and transport connections and facilities. Türkiye has shown support for the negotiations. This has been confirmed during the period again at the highest level, in a communication between Turkish President Erdoğan and Prime Minister Pashinyan.

Distancing itself from Russia to align with the West as Russia was not in a position to open a second front as the war with Ukraine was going on, Armenia has come to realize the necessity to normalize its relations with Türkiye, the neighbor to provide its connections with the West. Türkiye had been sincerely supporting the process of normalization of relations from early on. However, Türkiye has considered this in a regional perspective, to coincide with the normalization of Armenia’s relations with Azerbaijan, within the regional stability with Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

Keywords

Pashinyan, Mirzoyan, Putin, Lavrov, Blinken, Erdoğan, Fidan, Macron, Raisi, Karekin II, Archbishop Galstanyan, Dashnaksutyun (ARF), Zangezur corridor, CSTO, EAEU, NATO

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