إستراتيجية تركيا الكبرى والقوى العظمى

Year 2022, Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 41 - 72, 01.01.2022

Şener Aktürk

Abstract

إلى أيّ مدى تتوافق الإستراتيجية الكبرى لتركيا مع إستراتيجيات القوى العظمى العالمية؟ تلخّص هذه الدراسة مبادئ الإستراتيجية الكبرى لتركيا بإيجاز من وجهة نظر وصفية ومعيارية، ثم تنتقل بعد ذلك لتحدد وتقارن بين الإستراتيجيات الكبرى للقوى العظمى الخمس ذات العضوية الدائمة في مجلس الأمن التابع للأمم المتحدة. ففي حين ثمة بعض الصراعات الواضحة للعيان بين تركيا والوكلاء الفرنسيين والروس والأمريكان في سوريا وليبيا والقوقاز، فإنّه بالمقابل لا توجد صراعات عسكرية بين تركيا والوكلاء البريطانيين. كما تتخذ الصين أيضًا موقفًا مضادًّا لتركيا في العديد من النزاعات الدولية، من ذلك الحرب في سوريا، ويضيف الاضطهاد البالغ للمسلمين الأويغور الترك في شينغيانغ بعدًا آخر للنزاعات الصينية-التركية الكامنة. ويخلص البحث إلى أن الإستراتيجية التركية الكبرى تبدو أكثر توافقًا أو أقل تعارضًا مع الإستراتيجية البريطانية الكبرى، تتلوها الإستراتيجية الكبرى للولايات المتحدة الأمريكية من بين الدول الخمس الأعضاء في مجلس الأمن التابع للأمم المتحدة، بينما تبدو الإستراتيجيات التركية والفرنسية والروسية على وجه التحديد في حالة تعارض.

Keywords

الإستراتيجية الكبرى, الصين, فرنسا, روسيا, تركيا, المملكة المتحدة, الولابات المتحدة

Turkey’s Grand Strategy and the Great Powers

Abstract

This article briefly summarizes principles of Turkish grand strategy, both from a descriptive and normative point of view, and then proceeds to outline and compare the grand strategies of five great powers that are permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC). While there are some observable conflicts between Turkey and the French, Russian, and American proxies in Syria, Libya, and the Caucasus, there are no outstanding militarized conflicts between Turkey and the British proxies. China is also positioned against Turkey in several international conflicts including Syria, and the intense persecution of Turkic Muslim Uyghurs in Xinjiang adds another dimension of latent Chinese-Turkish conflicts. The article provisionally concludes that the Turkish grand strategy seems to be most compatible, or least incompatible, with the British grand strategy, followed by the U.S. grand strategy. whereas Turkish and French and especially Russian grand strategies seem
particularly incompatible.

Keywords

Grand Strategy, China, France, Russia, Turkey, UK, U.S.

References

• Special Issue on “Debating Turkey’s Grand Strategy,” Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 25, No. 2 (2020), pp. 151-283.
• “Power and Paradox: Understanding Grand Strategy in the 21st Century,” TRT World Forum, (October 2021), retrieved from https://www.trtworldforum.com/trt-world-forum-2021/.
• “Five Faces of Russia’s Soft Power,” PONARS Eurasia Policy Memo, (November 2019), retrieved from https://www.ponarseurasia.org/wp-content/uploads/attachments/Pepm623_Akturk_Nov2019_1-8.pdf, pp. 1-6.
• Şener Aktürk, “Turkey’s Grand Strategy as the Third Power: A Realist Proposal,” Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 25, No. 2 (2020), pp. 152-174.
• كان الناتج القومي الإجمالي لإيران في أوائل عام 2020 يمثل ما يقرب من ثلاثة أرباع الناتج القومي الإجمالي لتركيا (بلغ الناتج المحلي لإيران 1640 مليار دولار مقارنة ب2186 مليار دولار لتركيا في القوة الشرائية). وبالمثل بلغت ميزانية الدفاع الإيرانية ثلاثة أرباع الميزانية التركية (بلغت ميزانية الدفاع الإيرانية 13.2 مليار دولار مقارنة بميزانية تركيا التي بلغت 18.9 مليار دولار وفقاً لقاعدة بيانات SIPRI الخاصة بالإنفاق العسكري (جرى الوصول إليه في 12 يناير 2020) وكما ورد في مقال آق ترك "إستراتيجية تركيا بوصفها القوة الثالثة" ص.175 الجدول.1 تقلص الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لإيران إلى 1044 مليار دولار بحلول أواخر 2021 فيما بلغ الناتج المحلي الإجمالي لتركيا 2393 مليار دولار في مؤشر القوة الشرائية، وهذا يجعل الاقتصاد التركي أكبر بمرتين من نظيره الإيراني. انظر: https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/countries/turkey/#economy
• Aktürk, “Turkey’s Grand Strategy as the Third Power,” p. 1
• Diego Lopes da Silva, Nan Tian, and Alexandra Marksteiner, “Trends in World Military Expenditure 2020,” Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, (April 2021), retrieved from https://www.sipri. org/sites/default/files/2021-04/fs_2104_milex_0.pdf.
• Barry R. Posen and Andrew L. Ross, “Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy,” International Security, Vol. 2, No. 3 (Winter 1996-1997), pp. 5-53.
• Posen and Ross, “Competing Visions for U.S. Grand Strategy,” pp. 5-53.
• Michael Mastanduno, “Preserving the Unipolar Moment: Realist Theories and U.S. Grand Strategy,” International Security, Vol. 21, No. 4 (Spring 1997), pp. 49-88.
• Mastanduno, “Preserving the Unipolar Moment,” p. 88.
• Nuno P. Monteiro, Theory of Unipolar Politics, (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2014), pp. 4-6.
• John J. Mearsheimer, The Tragedy of Great Power Politics, (New York: W. W. Norton, 2001).
• Stephen Van Evera, “Why Europe Matters, Why the Third World Doesn’t: American Grand Strategy after the Cold War,” Journal of Strategic Studies, Vol. 13, No. 2 (1990), pp. 1-51.
• Silva et al., “Trends in World Military Expenditure 2020."
• .“Real GDP (Purchasing Power Parity),” The World Factbook, retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/theworld-factbook/field/real-gdp-purchasing-power-parity/country-comparison.
• “Country Comparisons-Population,” The World Factbook, retrieved from https://www.cia.gov/theworld-factbook/field/population/country-comparison.
• Silva et al., “Trends in World Military Expenditure 2020.”
• “2021 Military Strength Ranking,” Global Firepower, (2021), retrieved from https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php.
• . “GDP, Current Prices,” IMF, (2021), retrieved from https://www.imf.org/external/datamapper/NGDPD@WEO/OEMDC/ADVEC/WEOWORLD.
• Aktürk, “Five Faces of Russia’s Soft Power.”
• “2021 Military Strength Ranking,” Global Firepower, (2021), retrieved from https://www.globalfirepower.com/countries-listing.php. “GDP, Current Prices,” IMF, (2021), retrieved from
• . John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, “Unnecessary War,” Foreign Policy, (January/February 2003), retrieved from https://www.mearsheimer.com/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/A0032.pdf.
• John J. Mearsheimer and Stephen M. Walt, The Israel Lobby and U.S. Foreign Policy, (New York: Farrar, Straus, Giroux, 2007).
• Emile Hokayem, “Obama’s Disastrous Betrayal of the Syrian Rebels,” Foreign Policy, (February 2016), retrieved from https://foreignpolicy.com/2016/02/05/obamas-disastrous-betrayal-of-the-syrian-rebels/.
• John J. Mearsheimer, “Bound to Fail: The Rise and Fall of the Liberal International Order,” International Security, Vol. 43, No. 4 (Spring 2019), pp. 7-50.
• John Ford, “The Pivot to Asia Was Obama’s Biggest Mistake,” The Diplomat, (January 21, 2017), retrieved from https://thediplomat.com/2017/01/the-pivot-to-asia-was-obamas-biggest-mistake/
• “Aukus: UK, US, and Australia Launch Pact To Counter China,” BBC, (September 16, 2021), retrieved from https://www.bbc.com/news/world-58564837.
• “AUKUS Row: Macron Says Australian PM Lied about Submarine Deal,” Al Jazeera, (November 1, 2021), retrieved from https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/11/1/frances-macron-says-australian-pmlied-over-aukus-submarine-deal.
• John J. Mearsheimer, “The Inevitable Rivalry: America, China, and the Tragedy of Great-Power Politics,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 100, No. 6 (November/December 2021), pp. 48-58.
• Hal Brands and John Lewis Gaddis, “The New Cold War: America, China, and the Echoes of History,” Foreign Affairs, (November/December 2021), retrieved from https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/ united-states/2021-10-19/new-cold-war.
• Mearsheimer, “The Inevitable Rivalry.”
• Michael Robert Hickok, “Hegemon Rising: The Gap between Turkish Strategy and Military Modernization,” Parameters, Vol. 30, No. 2 (2000), pp. 105-19.
• Edward J. Erickson, “Turkey as Regional Hegemon 2014: Strategic Implications for the U.S.,” Turkish Studies, Vol. 5, No. 3 (2004), pp. 25-45.
• . Şener Aktürk, “Turkey’s Civil Rights Movement and the Reactionary Coup: Segregation, Emancipation, and the Western Reaction,” Insight Turkey, Vol. 18, No. 3 (2016), pp. 141-167.
• Ceyhun Çiçekçi, “İbrahim Anlaşmaları Sonrası Arap Yarımadasının Jeopolitik Analizi ve Türk Büyük Stratejisinin İmkânları/Kısıtları,” Güvenlik Stratejileri Dergisi, Vol. 17, No. 39 (2021), pp. 489-519.
• Şener Aktürk, “NATO Neden Genişledi? Uluslararası İlişkiler Kuramları Işığında NATO’nun Genişlemesi ve ABD-Rusya İç Siyaseti,” Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, Vol. 9, No. 34 (2012), pp. 73-97.
• “After Long Wait, U.S. to Unveil European Missile Shield,” Reuters, (May 11, 2016), retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-shield-timeline-idUSKCN0Y217P.
• . Roman Goncharenko and Julia Lasica, “Did Russian Intelligence Hire a Crimianl to Execute a Chechen Dissident in Berlin?” Deutsche Welle, (September 4, 2019), retrieved from https://www.dw.com/en/ did-russian-intelligence-hire-a-criminal-to-execute-a-chechen-dissident-in-berlin/a-50288786.
• Megan K. Stack, “Chechen Dissident Yamadayev Assassinated in Dubai,” Los Angeles Times, (March 31, 2009), retrieved from https://www.latimes.com/archives/la-xpm-2009-mar-31-fg-chechen31-story. html.
• . Shaun Walker, “Murder in İstanbul: Kremlin’s Hand Suspected in Shooting of Chechen,” The Guardian, (January 10, 2016), retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jan/10/murder-istanbul-chechen-kremlin-russia-abdulvakhid-edelgireyev.
• “Two Charged in Sweden with Attempted Murder over Chechen Blogger Assault,” Radio Free Europe Radio Liberty, (October 30, 2020), retrieved from https://www.rferl.org/a/two-charged-in-sweden-withattempted-murder-over-chechen-blogger-assault/30921152.html.
• “Austria: Chechen Dissident Murdered in Vienna,” Deutsche Welle, (July 10, 2020), retrieved from https://www.dw.com/en/austria-chechen-dissident-murdered-in-vienna/a-54124497.
• Seçkin Köstem, “Russian-Turkish Cooperation in Syria: Geopolitical Alignment with Limits,” Cambridge Review of International Affairs, (February 2020), pp. 1-23.
• Şener Aktürk, “Toward a Turkish-Russian Axis? Conflicts in Georgia, Syria, and Ukraine, and Cooperation over Nuclear Energy,” Insight Turkey, Vol. 16, No. 4 (2014), pp. 13-22.
• . Angelique Chrisafis, “Sarkozy to Announce French Return to NATO Military Command,” The Guardian, (March 11, 2009), retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/world/2009/mar/11/sarkozy-france-nato-military
• . Thierry Balzacq, “France,” in Thierry Balzacq, Peter Dombrowski, and Simon Reich (eds.), Comparative Grand Strategy: A Framework and Cases, (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019), p. 99.
• “France to Rejoin NATO Military Command after 43 Years,” Deutsche Welle, (March 11, 2009), retrieved from https://www.dw.com/en/france-to-rejoin-nato-military-command-after-43-years/a-4090430.
• Balzacq, “France,” p. 103.
• . Balzacq, “France,” p. 103.
• Jean-Pierre Chevenement (translated by Clemence Sebag), “France’s ‘Return’ to NATO: An Inopportune Decision,” Politique Etrangere, No. 5 (2009), retrieved from https://www.cairn.info/revue-politique-etrangere-2009-5-page-151.htm.
• . Balzacq, “France,” p. 99.
• “French Soldiers only Remain in Syria with US Help,” Anadolu Agency, (November 19, 2019), retrieved from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/french-soldiers-only-remain-in-syria-with-us-help/1650137.
• “France Says Securing Military in Syria as U.S. Begins Withdrawal,” Reuters, (October 14, 2019), retrieved from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-syria-security-france-troops-idUSKBN1WS0TN.
• “France Seeks Foothold in Northeast Syria,” Al Monitor, (April 27, 2021), retrieved from https://www. al-monitor.com/originals/2021/04/france-seeks-foothold-northeast-syria.
• “France Was Ready For Syria Strike When Obama Decided to Seek Congress Approval,” Jerusalem Post, (September 29, 2013), retrieved from https://www.jpost.com/middle-east/france-was-ready-forsyria-strike-when-obama-decided-to-seek-congresss-approval-327421.
• . Beril Dedeoğlu, “IŞİD Bir Şeyler Söylüyor,” Star, (July 1, 2015), retrieved from https://www.star.com.tr/ yazar/isid-bir-seyler-soyluyor-yazi-1040523/.
• Robert Johnson, “United Kingdom,” in Thierry Balzacq, Peter Dombrowski, and Simon Reich (eds.), p. 142.
• Johnson, “United Kingdom,” p. 131.
• Johnson, “United Kingdom,” p. 143.
• Johnson, “United Kingdom,” p. 133.
• Johnson, “United Kingdom,” p. 125.
• . Handan Kazancı, “UK: Man Who Joined PYD/PKK Faces Trial for Terrorism,” Anadolu Agency, (February 2, 2018), retrieved from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/uk-man-who-joined-pyd-pkk-faces-trial-forterrorism/1057235.
• Mattha Busby, “British Man Who Fought ISIS in Syria Has Terror Charges Dropped,” The Guardian, (July 31, 2018), retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/jul/31/james-matthewswho-joined-kurdish-forces-to-fight-isis-not-guilty
• Dan Sabbagh, “Trial Collapses of Three Britons Accused of Aiding Man to Go to Fight in Syria,” The Guardian, (July 3, 2020), retrieved from https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/jul/03/trial-collapses-of-three-britons-accused-of-aiding-man-to-go-to-fight-in-syria.
• Eralp Yarar, “Post-Brexit Turkey-UK Ties Show Signs of New Strategic Partnership,” Daily Sabah, (February 21, 2021), retrieved from https://www.dailysabah.com/politics/news-analysis/post-brexit-turkeyuk-ties-show-signs-of-new-strategic-partnership.
• Jonathan Fenton-Harvey, “Why the UK Sees Turkey as a Crucial Post-Brexit Ally,” Anadolu Agency, (January 13, 2021), retrieved from https://www.aa.com.tr/en/analysis/analysis-why-the-uk-sees-turkeyas-a-crucial-post-brexit-ally/2108631.
• . Wang Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy: A Rising Great Power Finds Its Way,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 9, No. 2 (2011), p. 68.
• Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy,” p. 72.
• Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy,” p. 71.
• Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy,” p. 72.
• Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy,” p. 72.
• Jisi, “China’s Search for a Grand Strategy,” p. 73.
• The scholarly and popular publications on the repression of the Uyghurs are volumnious. See, among others, Sean R. Roberts, The War on the Uyghurs: China’s Internal Campaign Against a Muslim Minority, (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2020). As a rich multimedia news reporting, also see “Inside Xinjiang’s Prison State,” New Yorker, (April 2021), retrieved from https://www.newyorker.com/ news/a-reporter-at-large/china-xinjiang-prison-state-uighur-detention-camps-prisoner-testimony.
• Andrew S. Erickson, “China,” in Thierry Balzacq, Peter Dombrowski, and Simon Reich (eds.), p. 74.
• . Erickson, “China,” p. 75.
• Erickson, “China,” pp. 85-86.
• . Ziya Öniş and Maimati Yalikun, “Emerging Partnership in a Post-Western World? The Political Economy of China-Turkey Relations,” Southeast European and Black Sea Studies, (September 2021), retrieved from https://doi.org/10.1080/14683857.2021.1981624.
• Nicola P. Contessi, “Turkey and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization: Common Values, Economics or Pure Geopolitics?” in Emre Erşen and Seçkin Köstem (eds.), Turkey’s Pivot to Eurasia: Geopolitics and Foreign Policy in a Changing World Order, (London: Routledge, 2019), pp. 91-110.
• Şener Aktürk, “The Fourth Style of Politics: Eurasianism as a Pro-Russian Rethinking of Turkey’s Geopolitical Identity,” Turkish Studies, Vol. 16, No. 1 (2015), pp. 54-79.
• . Berdal Aral, “The World Is Bigger than Five: A Salutary Manifesto of Turkey’s New International Outlook,” Insight Turkey, Vol. 21, No. 4 (2019), pp. 71-95.
• Şener Aktürk, “The Search for a Third Way: The Non-Aligned Movement, G77, and NIEO,” Politics Today, (November 17, 2021), retrieved from https://politicstoday.org/the-search-for-a-third-way-the-nonaligned-movement-g77-and-nieo/.