تقاطع العلاقات التركية الروسية: المواءمة الذكية والتنافس المرن
Year 2022,
Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 95 - 118, 01.01.2022
Alperen Kürşad Zengin
,
İlyas Topsakal
Abstract
تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى تحليل الجوانب المشتركة للإستراتيجيات الكبرى بين تركيا وروسيا، في إطار تقييم سياسة البلدين تجاه سوريا وليبيا والإمارات وجنوب القوقاز، حيث تتقاطع مصالح البلدين بين الحين والآخر. ويمكن تعريف العلاقات التركية الروسية بشكل أفضل من خلال مفهومين رئيسين، هما "المواءمة الذكية" و"التنافس المرن"؛ إذ لا يمكن عدّهما دولتين صديقتين ولا عدوتين، حيث يقفان في منطقة الوسط، التي نرمز إليها بالمنطقة الرمادية، وتجمعهما مصالح مشتركة. يطرح الباحثان في نهاية هذا البحث بعض السيناريوهات المقترحة لشكل العلاقات الثنائية التركية الروسية المستقبلية.
References
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- William Martel, Grand Strategy in Theory and Practice: The Need for an Effective American Foreign Policy, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015) p. 5.
- Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the World Wars, (New York: Cornell University Press, 1984), p. 13.
- Barry R. Posen, Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy, (London: Cornell University Press, 2014), p. 1.
- Dennis M. Drew and Donald M. Snow, Making Twenty-First Century Strategy: A Introduction to Modern National Security Processes and Problems, (Alabama: Air University Press, 2006) pp. 17-18.
- Paul Kennedy, Grand Strategies in War and Peace, (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1991), pp. 1-10.
Layton, “Grand Strategy?”
Güngör Şahin and Cem Oğultürk, Jeopolitik Düşünce: Büyük Güçler ve Türkiye, (İstanbul: Yeditepe, 2020), p. 62.
- Colin S. Gray, “Geography and Grand Strategy,” Comparative Strategy, Vol. 10, No. 4 (September 2007), p. 311.
- Each state emphasis here can be understood as a demonstration of its military power, in particular.
- Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, (California: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1979), pp. 105-109.
- Mustafa Aydın, “Uluslararası İlişkilerin ‘Gerçekçi’ Teorisi: Kökeni, Kapsamı, Kritiği,” Uluslararası İlişkiler, Vol. 1, No.1 (Spring 2004), p. 38.
- Geoffrey Hosking, Rusya ve Ruslar: Erken Dönemden 21. Yüzyıla, translated by Kezban Acar, (İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları, 2015), p. 13.
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- Haluk Özdemir, “Türkiye’nin ‘Sınır-Ülke Niteliği’: Farklı Stratejik Kültürler Arasında Türk Dış Politikası,” Avrasya Etüdleri, Vol. 33, No. 1 (2008), p. 22.
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- Haluk Özdemir, “Tasarlanmış ve Beliren Üst Stratejiler: Türkiye ve Diğer Orta Büyüklükteki Devletler için Alternatifler,” in Ali Karaosmanoğlu and Ersel Aydınlı (eds.), Strateji Düşüncesi: Kuram, Paradoks, Uygulama, (İstanbul: Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, 2020), p. 43.
- Yeşiltaş and Pirinççi, Küresel Dönüşüm Sürecinde Türkiye’nin Büyük Stratejisi, pp. 61-62.
- İlyas Topsakal, “Tarihi Süreçte Türkiye Rusya İlişkileri,” Marmara Türkiyat Araştırmaları Dergisi, Vol. 3, No. 2 (2020), pp. 33-53.
- “One state knows that it will not harm another state, or at least that it will not do so intentionally, but as the other state can never be sure of your intentions, you can never be sure of the other state’s intentions regarding you.” Herbet Butterfield, History and Human Relations, (New York: Collins, 1951), pp. 20-21.
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- Mustafa Kibaroğlu, “Paradigma Yokluğunda Küresel ve Bölgesel Politikalar Belirlemek,” Stratejist, No. 23 (June/July, 2019), pp. 22-25.
- Alperen Kürşad Zengin, “Paradigmasız Uluslararası Sistem ABD’nin Kontrollü Geri Çekilişinin Bir Sonucu Olabilir,” Asya-Avrupa, Vol. 5, No. 50 (April 2020), p. 57.
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- Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World, (New York: W.W. Norton, 2008), pp. 123-129.
- Yeşiltaş and Pirinççi, Küresel Dönüşüm Sürecinde Türkiye’nin Büyük Stratejisi, pp. 13-14.
- Ziya Öniş and Mustafa Kutlay, “Rising Powers in a Changing Global Order: The Political Economy of Turkey in the Age of BRICS,” Third World Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 8 (2013), p. 1410.
- Henry Kissenger, Dünya Düzeni, (İstanbul: Boyner Yayınları, 2016) pp. 398-399.
- Özdemir, “Tasarlanmış ve Beliren Üst Stratejiler,” p. 45.
- Ali Karaosmanoğlu, “Büyük Stratejinin Anlamı ve İşleyişi,” in Karaosmanoğlu and Aydınlı (eds.), Strateji Düşüncesi: Kuram, Paradoks, Uygulama, p. 39.
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- Kemal İnat, “Türkiye’nin Doğu Akdeniz Politikası: Hedefler, Araçlar, Yöntemler,” Kriter, Vol. 5, No. 49, (September 2020), pp. 26-27.
- “Bilateral Relations between Turkey and Libya,” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey, retrieved November 27, 2020, from http://www.mfa.gov.tr/bilateral-relations-between-turkey-and-libya.en.mfa
- Hasan Basri Yalçın, “Stratejik Silah Kapasitesi,” in Abdullah Erboğa (ed.), Türkiye’nin Stratejik Silah Kapasitesi, (İstanbul: SETA, 2019), p. 24.
- For an important study in which Turkey’s purchase of S-400s from Russia is evaluated in detail, see: Mustafa Kibaroğlu, “On Turkey’s Missile Defense Strategy: The Four Faces of the S-400 Deal between Turkey and Russia,” Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 24, No. 2 (December 2019), pp. 159-175.
- Abdullah Erboğa, “Türkiye’nin Stratejik Silah Kapasitesi ve Silahlanma Stratejisi,” in Erboğa (ed.), Türkiye’nin Stratejik Silah Kapasitesi, p. 75
- For sources that integrate with the work of Arda Mevlutoğlu and contain important analyses related to the Turkish defense industry, including Turkey’s UAV technology, retrieved from: https://www.siyahgribeyaz.com/.
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Yeni Türkiye Vizyonu: Dünya 5’ten Büyüktür, (Ankara: Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yayınları 2017), p. 13.
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- “Russian National Security Blueprint,” Rossiiskaya Gazeta, (December 26, 1997), retrieved December 11, 2020, from https://fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/blueprint.html, pp. 4-5.
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- Thomas J. Christensen and Jack L. Snyder, “Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity,” International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2 (Spring 1990), pp. 140-143.
- Ali Bilgiç, “Güvenlik İkilemi’ni Yeniden Düşünmek Güvenlik Çalışmalarında Yeni Bir Perspektif,” Uluslararası İlişkiler, Vol. 8, No. 29 (2011), p. 132.
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The Intersection of Grand Strategies in Turkey-Russia Relations: Smart Alignment and Flexible Competition
Year 2022,
Volume: 11 Issue: 1, 95 - 118, 01.01.2022
Alperen Kürşad Zengin
,
İlyas Topsakal
Abstract
Evaluating Turkey-Russia relations is a dilemma, as the two countries fluctuate between perceptions of mutual historical hostility and strategic partnership. An alternative perspective is needed to get beyond the impasse of this dilemma. The main purpose of this study is to explain the common aspects of the grand strategies of Turkey and Russia within the framework of the pattern and to evaluate the policies of both countries in Syria, Libya, and the South Caucasus where the interests of both intersect and occasional conflict. We propose that Turkey-Russia relations can best be defined around the concepts of ‘smart alignment’ and ‘flexible competition.’ Their bilateral relations cannot be considered black or white in the abstract, but rather take place in the ‘gray zone.’ Alternative scenarios for the future of bilateral relations are presented in the conclusion.
References
- Hal Brands, “The Promise and Pitfalls of Grand Strategy,” Strategic Studies Institute, (U.S. Army War College: 2012), retrieved from https://pubs-repository.s3-us-gov-west-1.amazonaws.com/2194.pdf, p. 10.
- Peter Layton, “Grand Strategy? What Does That Do for Me?” The Strategist, (July 2012), retrieved from https://www.aspistrategist.org.au/grand-strategy-what-does-that-do-for-me/.
- John L. Gaddis, On Grand Strategy, (New York: Penguin Press, 2018), p. 21.
- Layton, “Grand Strategy?”
- William Martel, Grand Strategy in Theory and Practice: The Need for an Effective American Foreign Policy, (Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 2015) p. 5.
- Barry R. Posen, The Sources of Military Doctrine: France, Britain, and Germany between the World Wars, (New York: Cornell University Press, 1984), p. 13.
- Barry R. Posen, Restraint: A New Foundation for U.S. Grand Strategy, (London: Cornell University Press, 2014), p. 1.
- Dennis M. Drew and Donald M. Snow, Making Twenty-First Century Strategy: A Introduction to Modern National Security Processes and Problems, (Alabama: Air University Press, 2006) pp. 17-18.
- Paul Kennedy, Grand Strategies in War and Peace, (New Haven: Yale University Press, 1991), pp. 1-10.
Layton, “Grand Strategy?”
Güngör Şahin and Cem Oğultürk, Jeopolitik Düşünce: Büyük Güçler ve Türkiye, (İstanbul: Yeditepe, 2020), p. 62.
- Colin S. Gray, “Geography and Grand Strategy,” Comparative Strategy, Vol. 10, No. 4 (September 2007), p. 311.
- Each state emphasis here can be understood as a demonstration of its military power, in particular.
- Kenneth Waltz, Theory of International Politics, (California: Addison-Wesley Publishing Co., 1979), pp. 105-109.
- Mustafa Aydın, “Uluslararası İlişkilerin ‘Gerçekçi’ Teorisi: Kökeni, Kapsamı, Kritiği,” Uluslararası İlişkiler, Vol. 1, No.1 (Spring 2004), p. 38.
- Geoffrey Hosking, Rusya ve Ruslar: Erken Dönemden 21. Yüzyıla, translated by Kezban Acar, (İstanbul: İletişim Yayınları, 2015), p. 13.
- For the opinion that Russian expansionism is more about geopolitics than ideological and intellectual elements, see, Benn Steil, “Russia’s Clash with the West Is about Geography, not Ideology,” Foreign Policy, (February 12, 2018), retrieved November 24, 2020, from https://foreignpolicy.com/2018/02/12/russias-clash-with-the-west-is-about-geography-not-ideology/.
- Alperen Kürşad Zengin, “Rusya Federasyonu’nun Ulusal Güvenlik Politikalarına Yön Veren Belgeler ve Etki Eden Güvenlik Yaklaşımları,” Unpublished Master Thesis, Kahramanmaraş Sürçü İmam University, 2019, p. 42.
- “The Basic Provisions of the Military Doctrine of the Russian Federation” Military Doctrine, No. 2.1 (November 2, 1993), retrieved from https://nuke.fas.org/guide/russia/doctrine/russia-mil-doc.html.
- “What Is NATO,” NATO, retrieved November 24, 2020, from https://www.nato.int/nato-welcome/index.html.
- President of Russia, “National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2020, Approved by Decree of the President of the Russian Federation,” No. 537 (May 12, 2009), retrieved November 25, 2020, from https://www.prlib.ru/en/node/353849.
- “National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation,” The Spanish Institute of Strategic Studies, (December 31, 2015), retrieved from http://www.ieee.es/Galerias/fichero/OtrasPublicaciones/Internacional/2016/Russian-National-Security-Strategy-31Dec2015.pdf.
- Mustafa Aydın, “Türkiye’de Güvenlik Kavramsallaştırması,” in Mustafa Aydın et al., (eds.) Uluslararası İlişkilerde Çatışmadan Güvenliğe, (İstanbul: Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, 2015), p. 492.
- Şahin and Oğultürk, “Jeopolitik Düşünce,” p. 289.
- Murat Yeşiltaş and Ferhat Pirinççi, Küresel Dönüşüm Sürecinde Türkiye’nin Büyük Stratejisi, (İstanbul: SETA, 2020), p. 63.
- Haluk Özdemir, “Türkiye’nin ‘Sınır-Ülke Niteliği’: Farklı Stratejik Kültürler Arasında Türk Dış Politikası,” Avrasya Etüdleri, Vol. 33, No. 1 (2008), p. 22.
- Aydın, “Türkiye’de Güvenlik Kavramsallaştırması,” p. 498.
- Haluk Özdemir, “Tasarlanmış ve Beliren Üst Stratejiler: Türkiye ve Diğer Orta Büyüklükteki Devletler için Alternatifler,” in Ali Karaosmanoğlu and Ersel Aydınlı (eds.), Strateji Düşüncesi: Kuram, Paradoks, Uygulama, (İstanbul: Bilgi Üniversitesi Yayınları, 2020), p. 43.
- Yeşiltaş and Pirinççi, Küresel Dönüşüm Sürecinde Türkiye’nin Büyük Stratejisi, pp. 61-62.
- İlyas Topsakal, “Tarihi Süreçte Türkiye Rusya İlişkileri,” Marmara Türkiyat Araştırmaları Dergisi, Vol. 3, No. 2 (2020), pp. 33-53.
- “One state knows that it will not harm another state, or at least that it will not do so intentionally, but as the other state can never be sure of your intentions, you can never be sure of the other state’s intentions regarding you.” Herbet Butterfield, History and Human Relations, (New York: Collins, 1951), pp. 20-21.
- İlyas Topsakal, “Turkey-Russia Relations: Harmony of National Interests,” Russia and Turkey Bilateral Relations in International Context International Conference October 19-20, 2018, (İstanbul: TDBB, 2020), p. 215.
- Mitat Çelikpala, “Viewing Present as History: The State and Future of Turkey-Russian Relations,” EDAM, (April 2019), pp. 25-28.
- Mustafa Kibaroğlu, “Paradigma Yokluğunda Küresel ve Bölgesel Politikalar Belirlemek,” Stratejist, No. 23 (June/July, 2019), pp. 22-25.
- Alperen Kürşad Zengin, “Paradigmasız Uluslararası Sistem ABD’nin Kontrollü Geri Çekilişinin Bir Sonucu Olabilir,” Asya-Avrupa, Vol. 5, No. 50 (April 2020), p. 57.
- John Ikenberry, “The Future of the Liberal World Order: Internationalism after America,” Foreign Affairs, Vol. 90, No. 3 (2011), pp. 56-62.
- Fareed Zakaria, The Post-American World, (New York: W.W. Norton, 2008), pp. 123-129.
- Yeşiltaş and Pirinççi, Küresel Dönüşüm Sürecinde Türkiye’nin Büyük Stratejisi, pp. 13-14.
- Ziya Öniş and Mustafa Kutlay, “Rising Powers in a Changing Global Order: The Political Economy of Turkey in the Age of BRICS,” Third World Quarterly, Vol. 34, No. 8 (2013), p. 1410.
- Henry Kissenger, Dünya Düzeni, (İstanbul: Boyner Yayınları, 2016) pp. 398-399.
- Özdemir, “Tasarlanmış ve Beliren Üst Stratejiler,” p. 45.
- Ali Karaosmanoğlu, “Büyük Stratejinin Anlamı ve İşleyişi,” in Karaosmanoğlu and Aydınlı (eds.), Strateji Düşüncesi: Kuram, Paradoks, Uygulama, p. 39.
- Şaban Kardaş, “Quest for Strategic Autonomy Continues, or How to Make Sense of Turkey’s ‘New Wave,’” GMF, (November 2011), retrieved from https://www.academia.edu/1121561/Quest_for_Strategic_Autonomy_Continues_or_How_to_Make_Sense_of_Turkey_s_New_Wave_, p. 2.
- Yeşiltaş and Pirinççi, Küresel Dönüşüm Sürecinde Türkiye’nin Büyük Stratejisi, p. 83.
- For the articles see, “Joint Statement by the Foreign Ministers of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the Russian Federation and the Republic of Turkey on Agreed Steps to Revitalize the Political Process to End the Syrian Conflict,” Turkey Ministry of Foreign Affairs, (December 20, 2016), retrieved December 8, 2020, from http://www.mfa.gov.tr/joint-statement-by-the-foreign-ministers-of-the-islamic-republic-of-iran_-the-russian-federation-and-the-republic-of-turkey-on-agreed-steps-to-revitalize-the-political-process-to-end-the-syrian-conflict_-20-december-2016_-moscow.en.mfa.
- Kemal İnat, “Türkiye’nin Doğu Akdeniz Politikası: Hedefler, Araçlar, Yöntemler,” Kriter, Vol. 5, No. 49, (September 2020), pp. 26-27.
- “Bilateral Relations between Turkey and Libya,” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Republic of Turkey, retrieved November 27, 2020, from http://www.mfa.gov.tr/bilateral-relations-between-turkey-and-libya.en.mfa
- Hasan Basri Yalçın, “Stratejik Silah Kapasitesi,” in Abdullah Erboğa (ed.), Türkiye’nin Stratejik Silah Kapasitesi, (İstanbul: SETA, 2019), p. 24.
- For an important study in which Turkey’s purchase of S-400s from Russia is evaluated in detail, see: Mustafa Kibaroğlu, “On Turkey’s Missile Defense Strategy: The Four Faces of the S-400 Deal between Turkey and Russia,” Perceptions: Journal of International Affairs, Vol. 24, No. 2 (December 2019), pp. 159-175.
- Abdullah Erboğa, “Türkiye’nin Stratejik Silah Kapasitesi ve Silahlanma Stratejisi,” in Erboğa (ed.), Türkiye’nin Stratejik Silah Kapasitesi, p. 75
- For sources that integrate with the work of Arda Mevlutoğlu and contain important analyses related to the Turkish defense industry, including Turkey’s UAV technology, retrieved from: https://www.siyahgribeyaz.com/.
- Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Yeni Türkiye Vizyonu: Dünya 5’ten Büyüktür, (Ankara: Cumhurbaşkanlığı Yayınları 2017), p. 13.
- President of Russia, “Speech and the Following Discussion at the Munich Conference on Security Policy,” Kremlin, (February 10, 2007), retrieved December 11, 2020, fromhttp://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/24034.
- “Russian National Security Blueprint,” Rossiiskaya Gazeta, (December 26, 1997), retrieved December 11, 2020, from https://fas.org/nuke/guide/russia/doctrine/blueprint.html, pp. 4-5.
- “National Security Concept of the Russian Federation,” The Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the Russian Federation, (January 10, 2000), retrieved December 11, 2020 from https://www.mid.ru/en/foreign_policy/official_documents/-/asset_publisher/CptICkB6BZ29/content/id/589768.
- National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2020.
- “National Security Strategy of the Russian Federation.”
- H. Andrew Schwartz and Caleb Diamond, “Exploiting Chaos: Russia in Libya,” CSIS, (September 23, 2020), retrieved December 22, 2020, from https://www.csis.org/blogs/post-soviet-post/exploiting-chaos-russia-libya
- Laurence Broers, “Perspectives: Did Russia Win the Karabakh War,” Eurasianet, (November 17, 2020), retrieved December 31, 2020 from https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-did-russia-win-the-karabakh-war.
- Glenn H. Snyder, The Security Dilemma in Alliance Politics, World Politics, Vol. 36, No. 3 (July 1984), pp. 466-468.
- Thomas J. Christensen and Jack L. Snyder, “Chain Gangs and Passed Bucks: Predicting Alliance Patterns in Multipolarity,” International Organization, Vol. 44, No. 2 (Spring 1990), pp. 140-143.
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