COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri

Abstract

Dünya Sağlık Örgütü’nün (DSÖ) 11 Mart 2020 tarihindeki pandemi ilanından sonra, tüm dünyada yüksek olgu ve ölüm sayıları bildirilmiştir. 2020 yılında COVID-19, ölüm nedenleri arasında altıncı sırayı almıştır. Bu küresel kriz, bir sağlık krizinden çok daha fazlası, insani, ekonomik ve sosyal bir krizdir. Salgını bitirebilmek için en önemli aracımız aşı ve onun sağlayabileceği toplum bağışıklığıdır. Yeni varyantlar toplum bağışıklığı denklemini değiştirebilir. Ayrıca aşı uygulamasının düzensiz ve kötü dağılımı ile aşılama sonrası değişen insan davranışı da diğer önemli değiştirici nedenlerdir. Aşı tereddüdü ve infodemi önemli tehditlerdir. Pandemi, bu değişkenlerin durumuna göre farklı senaryolarla ilerleyebilir. Bu senaryolar virüsün tamamen ortadan kaldırılmasından, yeni bir varyantla tüm aşı planlamalarının yenilenmesine kadar farklı bir yelpazede olabilir. Pandemi ile birlikte insanlığın asıl sorununun eşitsizlikler ve dünyadaki diğer canlı ve cansız sistemler ile birlikte yaşanmasındaki sorunlar olduğu görülmüştür.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• pandemi
• SARS-CoV-2
• öngörüler

Current Situation and Future Prospects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

After the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, the high numbers of cases and deaths had been reported over the world. In 2020, COVID-19 ranked sixth among the causes of death. This global crisis is much more than a health crisis, a humanitarian, economic, and social crisis. Our most important tool to end the epidemic is the vaccine and the herd immunity it can provide. New variants could change the herd immunity equation. The uneven and fair distribution of vaccine administration and the changing human behavior after vaccination are other significant modifiers. Vaccine hesitancy and infodemic are other main threats. The pandemic may progress with different scenarios, depending on the status of these variables. These scenarios can range from the complete eradication of the virus to the renewal of all vaccination plans with a new variant. With the pandemic, it is seen that the main problem of humanity is inequalities and the problem of living together with other living and non-living systems in the world.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• pandemics
• SARS-CoV-2
• forecasting

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