COVID-19 Pandemisinin Mevcut Durumu ve Gelecek Öngörüleri

Year 2021, Volume: 4 Issue: S-1, 97 - 103, 31.10.2021

Pınar Okyay

https://doi.org/10.26650/JARHS2021-986141

Abstract

Dünya Sağlık Örgütü’nün (DSÖ) 11 Mart 2020 tarihindeki pandemi ilanından sonra, tüm dünyada yüksek olgu ve ölüm sayıları bildirilmiştir. 2020 yılında COVID-19, ölüm nedenleri arasında altıncı sırayı almıştır. Bu küresel kriz, bir sağlık krizinden çok daha fazlası, insani, ekonomik ve sosyal bir krizdir. Salgını bitirebilmek için en önemli aracımız aşı ve onun sağlayabileceği toplum bağışıklığıdır. Yeni varyantlar toplum bağışıklığı denklemini değiştirebilir. Ayrıca aşı uygulamasının düzensiz ve kötü dağılımı ile aşılama sonrası değişen insan davranışı da diğer önemli değiştirici nedenlerdir. Aşı tereddüdü ve infodemi önemli tehditlerdir. Pandemi, bu değişkenlerin durumuna göre farklı senaryolarla ilerleyebilir. Bu senaryolar virüsün tamamen ortadan kaldırılmasından, yeni bir varyantla tüm aşı planlamalarının yenilenmesine kadar farklı bir yelpazede olabilir. Pandemi ile birlikte insanlığın asıl sorununun eşitsizlikler ve dünyadaki diğer canlı ve cansız sistemler ile birlikte yaşanmasındaki sorunlar olduğu görülmüştür.

Keywords

COVID-19, pandemi, SARS-CoV-2, öngörüler

Current Situation and Future Prospects of the COVID-19 Pandemic

Abstract

After the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic on March 11, 2020, the high numbers of cases and deaths had been reported over the world. In 2020, COVID-19 ranked sixth among the causes of death. This global crisis is much more than a health crisis, a humanitarian, economic, and social crisis. Our most important tool to end the epidemic is the vaccine and the herd immunity it can provide. New variants could change the herd immunity equation. The uneven and fair distribution of vaccine administration and the changing human behavior after vaccination are other significant modifiers. Vaccine hesitancy and infodemic are other main threats. The pandemic may progress with different scenarios, depending on the status of these variables. These scenarios can range from the complete eradication of the virus to the renewal of all vaccination plans with a new variant. With the pandemic, it is seen that the main problem of humanity is inequalities and the problem of living together with other living and non-living systems in the world.

Keywords

COVID-19, pandemics, SARS-CoV-2, forecasting

References

• 1. Worldometer. Covid-19 Coronavırus Pandemıc. Available from: https://www.worldometers.info/ coronavirus/. Accessed 22nd May 2021
• 2. World Health Statistics. Monitoring Health for the SDGs, Sustainable Development Goals. Geneva: World Health Organization: 2021. Licence: CC BY-NC-SA 3.0 IGO. Available from: URL: https://www.who.int/data/gho/ publications/world-health-statistics.
• 3. United Nations. Everyone Included: Social Impact of COVID-19. Available from: https:// www.un.org/development/desa/dspd/everyoneincluded- covid-19. Accessed 22nd May 2021
• 4. Kulldorff M, Gupta S, Bhattacharya J. Great Barrington Declaration. 2020 Oct. Available from: URL: https://gbdeclaration.org/.Accessed 2nd June 2021
• 5. John Snow Memorandum. World Health Network Emergency Summit. The Delta Variant, Children and Schools: We Need To Protect Our Children & Communities. 2021 Sept. (cited 2021 Sept 3): Available from: URL: https://www. johnsnowmemo.com/. Accessed 2nd June 2021
• 6. Our World in Data. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Deaths . Available from: https://ourworldindata. org/covid-deaths. Accessed 2nd January 2021
• 7. Guerra FM, Bolotin S, Lim G, Heffernan J, Deeks SL, Li Y, et al. The basic reproduction number (R 0 ) of measles: a systematic review. Lancet Infect Dis 2017;17(12):e420–8.
• 8. Viceconte G, Petrosillo N. Covid-19 R0: Magic number or conundrum? Infect Dis Rep 2020;12(1):8516.
• 9. Aschwanden C. Five reasons why Covid herd immunity is probably impossible. Nature 2021;591(7851):520-2.
• 10. Breuninger K. CNBC. U.S. to spend $1.7 billion tracking Covid variants as dangerous new strains make up half of all cases. Available from: https:// www.cnbc.com/2021/04/16/covid-variantsbiden- admin-spending-1point7-billiontracking- new-strains.html%0A. Accessed 1st May 2021
• 11. Krause PR, Fleming TR, Longini IM, Peto R, Briand S, Heymann DL et al. SARSCoV- 2 Variants and Vaccines. N Engl J Med 2021;385(2):179-86.
• 12. Nasreen S, Chung H, He S, Brown KA, Gubbay JB, Buchan SA et al. Effectiveness of Covid-19 vaccines against variants of concern in Ontario, Canada. (cited 2021 July 16): Available from: https://www.medrxiv.org/ content/10.1101/2021.06.28.21259420v2. doi: https://doi.org/10.1101/2021.06.28.2125942 0. Accessed 1st May 2021.
• 13. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Update on Emerging SARS-CoV-2 Variants and Vaccine Considerations. (cited 2021 May 12): Available from: https://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/ acip/meetings/downloads/slides-2021-05- 12/10-Covid-Scobie-508.pdf. Accessed 18th May 2021
• 14. Pfizer. Pfızer and Bıontech Inıtıate A Study As Part of Broad Development Plan To Evaluate Covid-19 Booster and New Vaccıne Varıants. (cited 2021 February 25): Available from: https:// www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/pressrelease- detail/pfizer-and-biontech-initiatestudy- part-broad-development%0A.Accessed 10th June2021
• 15. Mascola JR, Graham BS, Fauci AS. SARS-CoV-2 Viral Variants—Tackling a Moving Target. JAMA 2021;325(13):1261-62.
• 16. Korkmaz E, Balmert SC, Sumpter TL, Carey CD, Erdos G, Falo LD. Microarray patches enable the development of skin-targeted vaccines against Covid-19. Adv Drug Deliv Rev 2021;171:164-86. 17. Guglielmi G. The explosion of new coronavirus tests that could help to end the pandemic. Nature 2020;583(7817):506-9.
• 18. World Health Organization,Ten threats to global health in 2019. Available from: https://www. who.int/news-room/spotlight/ten-threats-toglobal- health-in-2019.Accessed 18th May 2021
• 19. World Health Organization. Managing the COVID-19 infodemic: Promoting healthy behaviours and mitigating the harm from misinformation and disinformation. Available from: https://www.who.int/news/ item/23-09-2020-managing-the-covid-19- infodemic-promoting-healthy-behaviours-andmitigating- the-harm-from-misinformationand- disinformation. Accessed 2nd May 2021
• 20. Ghebreyesus TA. I Run the W.H.O., and I Know That Rich Countries Must Make a Choice. (cited 2021 April 22): Available from: https://www. nytimes.com/2021/04/22/opinion/who-covidvaccines. html.
• 21. World Health Organization, COVAX Working for global equitable access to COVID-19 vaccines. Available from: https://www.who.int/ initiatives/act-accelerator/covax. Accessed 10th May 2021
• 22. Gu Y. Path to Normality - COVID-19 Vaccine Projections. (cited 2021 April 26): Available from: https://covid19-projections.com/pathto- herd-immunity/#comparison-projected-vsactual% 0A. Accessed 19th June 2021
• 23. Lewis R. Are we hurtling or hurdling towards herd ımmunity for Covid-19?. (cited 2021 January 28): Available from: https://dnascience. plos.org/2021/01/28/are-we-hurtling-orhurdling- towards-herd-immunity-forcovid- 19/ Accessed 19th May 2021.
• 24. World Economic Forum. The Great Reset. Available from: https://www.weforum.org/ great-reset. Accessed 19th June 2021
• 25. Chomsky and Pollin: A global green new deal ıs the only way to avert disaster.(cited 2021 January 7): Available from: https://chomsky. info/20210107/. Accessed 19th May2021
• 26. Forman R, Atun R, McKee M, Mossialos E. 12 Lessons learned from the management of the coronavirus pandemic. Health Policy 2020;124(6):577-80.
• 27. Jasanoff S, Hilgartner S, James W, White L. Learnıng From Covid-19: A 23-nation comparative study of covıd-19 response, with lessons for the future of public health. Available from: https://iserp.columbia.edu/sites/default/ files/National Comparative Study Synthesis Paper.pdf. Accessed 19th May 2021.