Türkiye İklim Kanunu Sonrası Karbon Fiyatlamasının Firma Düzeyinde Üretim, Girdi Bileşimi ve Düşük Karbonlu Yatırım Kararlarına Etkisi

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 7552 sayılı İklim Kanunu sonrasında Türkiye’de gündeme gelen karbon fiyatlamasının firma düzeyindeki üretim, girdi bileşimi ve düşük karbonlu yatırım kararları üzerindeki muhtemel etkilerini mikroiktisadi bir modelle incelemektedir. Modelde firma; çıktı düzeyini, karbon yoğun ve düşük karbonlu enerji girdileri arasındaki bileşimi ve teknoloji yatırımını birlikte belirleyen bir karar birimi olarak ele alınmaktadır. Bulgular, karbon fiyatının karbon yoğun girdinin etkin maliyetini artırarak girdi ikamesini teşvik edebileceğini; ancak çıktı ve yatırım etkilerinin teknik ikame kapasitesine, başlangıçtaki karbon yoğunluğuna ve sabit yatırım maliyetine bağlı olduğunu göstermektedir. Finansman koşulları, modelin firma heterojenliğini dikkate alan genişletilmiş sürümlerinde yatırım maliyeti üzerinden ayrıca ele alınabilecek bir kanaldır. Politika tartışması, ücretsiz tahsis ve geçiş desteklerinin marjinal fiyat sinyalinin gücü bakımından taşıdığı önemi de ortaya koymaktadır. Türkiye’de uygulama sürecinin yeni olması nedeniyle çalışma, ileride firma düzeyi verilerle sınanabilecek mekanizmalar ve kritik karbon fiyatının nasıl tanımlanabileceğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Karbon Fiyatlaması
• Emisyon Ticaret Sistemi
• Firma Davranışı
• Girdi İkamesi
• Düşük Karbonlu Yatırım

The Effects of Carbon Pricing on Firm-Level Production, Input Composition and Low-Carbon Investment Decisions After Türkiye’s Climate Law

Abstract

This study develops a microeconomic model to examine the potential effects of carbon pricing on firm-level production, input composition and low-carbon investment decisions following the enactment of Türkiye’s Climate Law No. 7552. The firm is modelled as jointly determining output, the composition of carbon-intensive and low-carbon energy inputs, and technology investment. The model indicates that carbon pricing can encourage input substitution by increasing the effective cost of carbon-intensive energy. However, its effects on output and investment depend on technical substitution capacity, initial carbon intensity and fixed investment costs. Financing conditions constitute an additional channel that can be incorporated through investment costs in extensions allowing for firm heterogeneity. The policy discussion also highlights how the design of free allocation and transition support can affect the strength of the marginal price signal. Because Türkiye’s regulatory framework is new and firms are still adapting, a long and comparable firm-level dataset has not yet emerged. The study therefore provides testable mechanisms and a formal definition of the critical carbon-price threshold for future sector- and firm-level empirical research.

Keywords

• Carbon Pricing
• Emissions Trading System
• Firm Behaviour
• Input Substitution
• Low-Carbon Investment

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