Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkelerde Enerji Tüketimi Belirleyicilerinin Heterojen Etkileri: Kantil Regresyondan Kanıtlar

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2024 verilerini kullanarak ve kantil regresyon yöntemini uygulayarak gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde enerji tüketiminin belirleyicilerini incelemektedir. Bu bağlamda, çalışma, güncel ülkeler arası kanıtlar sunarak ve enerji tüketimi belirleyicilerinin farklı tüketim seviyelerindeki heterojen etkilerini vurgulayarak literatüre katkıda bulunmaktadır. Sadece koşullu ortalamayı tahmin eden OLS yönteminin aksine, kantil regresyon bu etkileri enerji tüketiminin koşullu dağılımının farklı noktalarında tahmin eder. Önceki çalışmalara dayanarak, analiz başlangıçta GSYİH, nüfus, kentleşme, İGE, sanayileşme, doğrudan yabancı yatırım ve CO₂ emisyonlarını içermekteydi; ancak GSYİH, İGE ve CO₂ önemsiz bulundukları için dışlandı. Sonuçlar, sanayileşme için kantiller arasında istatistiksel olarak anlamlı farklılıklar olduğunu ve nüfus için en güçlü varyasyonun sanayileşmede gözlemlendiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Bulgular, enerji tüketiminin belirleyicilerinin homojen olmadığını ve farklı tüketim grupları arasında değiştiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Kantil Regresyon
• Enerji Tüketimi
• Gelişmiş ve Gelişmekte Olan Ülkeler

Heterogeneous Effects of Determinants of Energy Consumption in Developed and Developing Countries: Evidence from Quantile Regression

Abstract

This study examines the determinants of energy consumption in developed and developing countries using 2024 data and applying the quantile regression method. In this context, the study contributes to the literature by presenting up-to-date cross-country evidence and highlighting the heterogeneous effects of energy consumption determinants at different consumption levels. Unlike OLS method, which estimates only the conditional mean, quantile regression estimates these effects at different points in the conditional distribution of energy consumption. Building on previous studies, the analysis initially included GDP, population, urbanization, HDI, industrialization, FDI, and CO₂ emissions; however, GDP, HDI, and CO₂ were excluded because they were found to be insignificant. The results reveal statistically significant differences between quantiles for industrialization and for population the strongest variation was observed in industrialization. The findings indicate that the determinants of energy consumption are not homogeneous and vary across different consumption groups.

Keywords

• Quantile Regression
• Energy Consumption
• Developed and Developing Countries

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