ROBOT EKONOMİSİNİN YÜKSELİŞİ
Year 2019,
Volume: 2019 Issue: 1, 25 - 47, 11.05.2019
Dilek Kurt
,
Ümit Bozoklu
Abstract
Endüstri 4.0
teknolojik ve ekonomik yapıyı dönüştürmektedir. Robotik, yapay zekâ ve
otomasyonun gelişimi ile birlikte robotların kullanım yoğunluğu artmaktadır.
Robotlar temel ekonomik göstergeleri ciddi boyutlarda etkilemektedir. Konuyla
ilgili ekonomistlerin farklı görüşleri bulunsa da, robot kullanımın artmasıyla
beraber bu etkinin gelecekte artarak devam etmesi kaçınılmazdır. Bu makalede;
robotik, yapay zekâ ve otomasyonun artan kullanımı sonucu ortaya çıkan
robot-temelli ekonomi veya robot ekonomisi (robonomics)
olarak adlandırılan ekonomik sistemin temel ekonomik göstergeler üzerinde
yarattığı değişimler incelenecektir. Bu çalışma; endüstriyel robot kullanımının
emek piyasası başta olmak üzere, GSYİH, verimlilik ve maliyetlere olan
etkilerini inceleyerek robot ekonomisinin yükselişini ortaya koymayı
amaçlamaktadır. Robot kullanımın teknolojik işsizliğe etkisi konusundaki farklı
görüşler çalışmada ayrıca açıklanmaktadır. Artan robot kullanımının emek
piyasasına olumsuz etkilerine yönelik robot vergisi ve evrensel temel gelir çözüm
önerileri olarak değerlendirilmektedir.
References
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- Akın, Ö. (2017). Hızla Artan Endüstriyel Robotların Üretim Süreçlerinde Yarattığı Değişimler ve Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Yaratacağı Olası Etkilerin Değerlendirilmesi, İş Ve Hayat, Cilt 3, Sayı 6, 42 – 71.
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- Atış, N. T. (2017). Teknolojik İşsizliğin Kaçınılmazlığı ve Çözümün Bir Parçası Olarak Kamu İstihdam Hizmetleri, Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı Türkiye İş Kurumu Genel Müdürlüğü, Uzmanlık Tezi.
- Autor, D.H. & Levy, F. & Murname, R.J. (2003), The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1279 – 1333.
- Berg, A. & Buffie, E. & Zanna, L.F. (2018). Should we fear the robot revolution? (The correct answer is yes), Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 97, 117-148.
- Brynjolfsson, E. & McAfee, A. (2014). The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
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- Centre for Economics and Business Research. (2017). The Impact of Automation
- Chiacchio, F.& Petropoulos, G. & Pichler, D. (2018). The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages: A local labour market approach. Bruegel Working Paper Issue 02/18.
- Crews, J. (2016). Robonomics: Prepare Today for the Jobless Economy of Tomorrow. CreateSpace Independent.
- Dauth, W. & Findeisen, S. & Sudekum, J. & Wößner, N. (2017). German Robots: The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers, Institute for Employment Research, CEPR Discussion Paper. No. DP12306.
- DeCanio, S. (2016). Robots and humans – complements or substitudes. Journal of Macroeconomics,49, 280-291.
- Delaney, K. (2017). The robot that takes your job should pay taxes, says Bill Gates. Retrieved January 02, 2019, from https://qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/
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- Eskuri, J. (2015). Robots Improve Productivity – But What at Cost? Automation, Manufacturing, Robotics, Technology. Erişim Tarihi: 03.01.2019, http://www.apriso.com/blog/2015/03/robots-improve-productivity-but-at-what-cost/
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- Federation of Robotics (IFR). (2018c). Retrieved January 21, 2019, from https://ifr.org/downloads/press2018/WR_Presentation_Industry_and_Service_Robots_rev_5_12_18.pdf
- Ford, M. (2018). Robotların Yükselişi. İstanbul: Kronik.
- Frey, C. B. & Osborne, M. A. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptile are Jobs to Computerisation? Oxford Martin School Working Paper, 1-72.
- Frey, C. B. & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The Future of Employment: How Susceptile are Jobs to Computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Change, Volume 114, 254 – 280.
- Gasteiger, E. ve Prettner, K. (2017), A Note on Automation, Stagnation, and the Implications of a Robot Tax, Discussion Paper, School of Business & Economics: Economics, No. 17, 1-17.
- Graetz, G. & Michaels, G. (2015). Robots at Work, CEP Discussion Paper No 1335, Retrieved March 02, 2019, from http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1335.pdf
- Graetz, G. & Michaels, G. (2018). Robots at work. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 100 (5), 753-768.
- Huws, U. (2018). Küresel Dijital Ekonomide Emek. İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
- Jones, C.I. (2001). İktisadi Büyümeye Giriş, İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
- International Labour Organization (ILO). (2018). Robots worldwide:The impact of automation on employment and trade. Research Department. Working Paper 36.
- ISO 8373: 2012, Robots and robotic devices – Vocabulary. Erişim Tarihi: 25.12.2018. https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/#iso:std:iso:8373:ed-2:v1:en
- Ivanow, S. (2017). Robonomics – Principles, Benefits, Challenges, Solutions. Yearbook of Varna University of Management, 10, 283-293.
- Kara, M. (2017). Bill Gates: Robotlar da İnsanlar Gibi Vergi Ödemeli. Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2019. https://webrazzi.com/2017/02/20/bill-gates-robotlar-da-insanlar-gibi-vergi-odemeli/
- Keynes, J. M. (1930). Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren. Retrieved February 15, 2019, from http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
- McKinsey Global Institute. (2013). Disruptive Technologies: Advances that will transform live, business, and the global economy. McKinsey.
- McKinsey Global Institute. (2017a). Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation. New York: McKinsey Global Institute, Retrieved December 15, 2018, from: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/future%20of%20organizations/what%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/mgi-jobs-lost-jobs-gained-report-december-6-2017.ashx
- McKinsey Global Institute. (2017b). A Future That Works: Automation, Employment and Productivity.
- Nedelkoska, L. & Quintini, G. (2018), Automation, skills use and training, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, OECD Publishing, Paris.
- Nikiforos, M. & Steinbaum, M. & Zezza, G. (2017). Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of a Universal Basic Income. Roosevelt Institute, Retrieved February 22, 2019 from http://rooseveltinstitute.org/modeling-macroeconomic-effects-ubi/
- Nomaler, Ö. & Verspagen, B. (2018). Perpetual growth, distribution, and robots, UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series.
- Oberson, X. (2017). Taxing Robots? From the Emergence of an Electronic Ability to Pay on Robots or the Use of Robots. World Tax Journal, 9(2), 247-261.
- OECD. (2015). The Future of Productivity. Retrieved January 18, 2019, from https://www.oecd.org/eco/OECD-2015-The-future-of-productivity-book.pdf
- Pettinger, T. (2017). Should we tax robots? Economichelps. Retrieved Januar 05, 2019 from https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/132881/business/should-we-tax-robots/
- PewResearchCenter. (2014). Digital Life in 2025. AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs.
- Prodhan, G. & Williams, A. (2017). European parliament calls for robot law, rejects robot tax. Reuters. Retrieved Fabruary 10, 2019, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robots-lawmaking/european-parliament-calls-for-robot-law-rejects-robot-tax-idUSKBN15V2KM
- PwC (2018). Will Robots Really Steal Our Jobs? An International Analysis of The Potential Long Term Impact of Automation, Retrieved January 23, 2019, from https://www.pwc.com/hu/hu/kiadvanyok/assets/pdf/impact_of_automation_on_jobs.pdf
- Rifkin, J. (1995). The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era. Putnam Publishing Group.
- Schumpeter, J. (2003). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Routledge London & New York 1943, e-Kitap Basımı: Taylor & Francis e-Library (2003).
- Schwab, K. & Davis. N. (2019). Dördüncü Sanayi Devrimini Şekillendirmek. World Economic Forum. Istanbul: Optimist.
- Songur, M. & Saraç, F. E. (2017). Cobb-Douglas, CES, VES ve Translog Üretim Fonksiyonlarının Tahminleri Üzerine Genel Bir Değerlendirme. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 2(3), 235-278.
- Sonmucid (2017). Endüstri 4.0’dan Sonra Yeni Çağ Meslekleri. Sonmucid’s Blog. Erişim Tarihi: 10.01.2019, https://sonmucid.wordpress.com/2017/08/14/endustri-4-0dan-sonra-yeni-cag-meslekleri/
- Sullivan, A. (2017). The robots are coming, and they might have to pay tax. Retrieved March 03, 2019, from https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/132881/business/should-we-tax-robots/
- TÜSİAD. (2018). Dijital Teknolojiler ve Ekonomik Büyüme. İstanbul: TÜSİAD.
- Türk Dil Kurumu. Erişim Tarihi: 06.01.2019, http://www.tdk.gov.tr/index.php?option=com_gts&arama=gts&guid=TDK.GTS.5c83f2f181c431.88649146
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Retrieved March 02, 2019, from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/database/index.asp
- Wall ve Andes (2015), Robots Seem to Be Improving Productivity,Not Costing obs. Harward Business Review. Retrieved February 10, 2019 from https://hbr.org/2015/06/robots-seem-to-be-improving-productivity-not-costing-jobs
- Wildhaber, I. (2016). Die Roboter kommen – Konsequenzen für Arbeit und Arbeitsrecht. Zeitschrift für Schweizerisches Recht. Band 135 I, Heft 4, 315-351.
- Wolla, S.A. (2018). Will Robots Take Our Jobs?. Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis, Retrieved December 29, 2018, from https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2018/01/02/will-robots-take-our-jobs
- World Economic Forum (WEF). (2018). The Future of Jobs Report 2018, Retrieved February 16, 2019, from: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2018.pdf
Year 2019,
Volume: 2019 Issue: 1, 25 - 47, 11.05.2019
Dilek Kurt
,
Ümit Bozoklu
References
- Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2017). Robots and Jobs: Evidence from Us Labor Markets. Cambridge: NBER Working Paper, No. 23285.
- Akın, Ö. (2017). Hızla Artan Endüstriyel Robotların Üretim Süreçlerinde Yarattığı Değişimler ve Türkiye İşgücü Piyasasında Yaratacağı Olası Etkilerin Değerlendirilmesi, İş Ve Hayat, Cilt 3, Sayı 6, 42 – 71.
- Arntz, M. & Gregory, T. & Zierahn, U. (2016), The Risk of Automation for Jobs in OECD Countries: A Comparative Analysis. OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, No. 189, OECD Publishing, Paris.
- Atış, N. T. (2017). Teknolojik İşsizliğin Kaçınılmazlığı ve Çözümün Bir Parçası Olarak Kamu İstihdam Hizmetleri, Çalışma ve Sosyal Güvenlik Bakanlığı Türkiye İş Kurumu Genel Müdürlüğü, Uzmanlık Tezi.
- Autor, D.H. & Levy, F. & Murname, R.J. (2003), The Skill Content of Recent Technological Change: An Empirical Exploration. The Quarterly Journal of Economics. 1279 – 1333.
- Berg, A. & Buffie, E. & Zanna, L.F. (2018). Should we fear the robot revolution? (The correct answer is yes), Journal of Monetary Economics, Volume 97, 117-148.
- Brynjolfsson, E. & McAfee, A. (2014). The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies, New York: W.W. Norton & Company.
- Boston Consulting Group (BCG). (2015a). The Robotics Revolution. The Next Great Leap in Manufacturing. Boston: BCG.
- Boston Consulting Group (BCG). (2015b). Industry 4.0: The Future of Productivity and Growth in Manufacturing Industries. Related Expertise: Engineered Products & Infrastructure, Digital Transformation, Automotive & Mobility. Retrieved December 30, 2018, from https://www.bcg.com/publications/2015/engineered_products_project_business_industry_4_future_productivity_growth_manufacturing_industries.aspx
- Centre for Economics and Business Research. (2017). The Impact of Automation
- Chiacchio, F.& Petropoulos, G. & Pichler, D. (2018). The impact of industrial robots on EU employment and wages: A local labour market approach. Bruegel Working Paper Issue 02/18.
- Crews, J. (2016). Robonomics: Prepare Today for the Jobless Economy of Tomorrow. CreateSpace Independent.
- Dauth, W. & Findeisen, S. & Sudekum, J. & Wößner, N. (2017). German Robots: The Impact of Industrial Robots on Workers, Institute for Employment Research, CEPR Discussion Paper. No. DP12306.
- DeCanio, S. (2016). Robots and humans – complements or substitudes. Journal of Macroeconomics,49, 280-291.
- Delaney, K. (2017). The robot that takes your job should pay taxes, says Bill Gates. Retrieved January 02, 2019, from https://qz.com/911968/bill-gates-the-robot-that-takes-your-job-should-pay-taxes/
- Ege Bölge Sanayi Odası (EBSO). (2015). Sanayi 4.0, İzmir: EBSO Yayınları.
- Eğilmez, M. (2018). Tarihsel Süreç İçerisinde Dünya Ekonomisi, İstanbul: Remzi Kitabevi.
- Eskuri, J. (2015). Robots Improve Productivity – But What at Cost? Automation, Manufacturing, Robotics, Technology. Erişim Tarihi: 03.01.2019, http://www.apriso.com/blog/2015/03/robots-improve-productivity-but-at-what-cost/
- Federation of Robotics (IFR).( 2017). The Impact of Robots on Productivity, Employment and Jobs, Retrieved 25 December, 2018, from https://ifr.org/downloads/papers/IFR_The_Impact_of_Robots_on_Employment_Positioning_Paper.pdf
- Federation of Robotics (IFR). (2018a). Retrieved January 20, 2019, from https://ifr.org/downloads/press2018/Foreword_WR_2018_Industrial_Robots.pdf
- Federation of Robotics (IFR). (2018b). Retrieved January 20, 2019, from https://ifr.org/downloads/press2018/Executive_Summary_WR_2018_Industrial_Robots.pdf
- Federation of Robotics (IFR). (2018c). Retrieved January 21, 2019, from https://ifr.org/downloads/press2018/WR_Presentation_Industry_and_Service_Robots_rev_5_12_18.pdf
- Ford, M. (2018). Robotların Yükselişi. İstanbul: Kronik.
- Frey, C. B. & Osborne, M. A. (2013). The Future of Employment: How Susceptile are Jobs to Computerisation? Oxford Martin School Working Paper, 1-72.
- Frey, C. B. & Osborne, M. A. (2017). The Future of Employment: How Susceptile are Jobs to Computerisation? Technological Forecasting and Change, Volume 114, 254 – 280.
- Gasteiger, E. ve Prettner, K. (2017), A Note on Automation, Stagnation, and the Implications of a Robot Tax, Discussion Paper, School of Business & Economics: Economics, No. 17, 1-17.
- Graetz, G. & Michaels, G. (2015). Robots at Work, CEP Discussion Paper No 1335, Retrieved March 02, 2019, from http://cep.lse.ac.uk/pubs/download/dp1335.pdf
- Graetz, G. & Michaels, G. (2018). Robots at work. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 100 (5), 753-768.
- Huws, U. (2018). Küresel Dijital Ekonomide Emek. İstanbul: Yordam Kitap.
- Jones, C.I. (2001). İktisadi Büyümeye Giriş, İstanbul: Literatür Yayıncılık.
- International Labour Organization (ILO). (2018). Robots worldwide:The impact of automation on employment and trade. Research Department. Working Paper 36.
- ISO 8373: 2012, Robots and robotic devices – Vocabulary. Erişim Tarihi: 25.12.2018. https://www.iso.org/obp/ui/#iso:std:iso:8373:ed-2:v1:en
- Ivanow, S. (2017). Robonomics – Principles, Benefits, Challenges, Solutions. Yearbook of Varna University of Management, 10, 283-293.
- Kara, M. (2017). Bill Gates: Robotlar da İnsanlar Gibi Vergi Ödemeli. Erişim Tarihi: 01.03.2019. https://webrazzi.com/2017/02/20/bill-gates-robotlar-da-insanlar-gibi-vergi-odemeli/
- Keynes, J. M. (1930). Economic Possibilities for our Grandchildren. Retrieved February 15, 2019, from http://www.econ.yale.edu/smith/econ116a/keynes1.pdf
- McKinsey Global Institute. (2013). Disruptive Technologies: Advances that will transform live, business, and the global economy. McKinsey.
- McKinsey Global Institute. (2017a). Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation. New York: McKinsey Global Institute, Retrieved December 15, 2018, from: https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckinsey/featured%20insights/future%20of%20organizations/what%20the%20future%20of%20work%20will%20mean%20for%20jobs%20skills%20and%20wages/mgi-jobs-lost-jobs-gained-report-december-6-2017.ashx
- McKinsey Global Institute. (2017b). A Future That Works: Automation, Employment and Productivity.
- Nedelkoska, L. & Quintini, G. (2018), Automation, skills use and training, OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers, OECD Publishing, Paris.
- Nikiforos, M. & Steinbaum, M. & Zezza, G. (2017). Modeling the Macroeconomic Effects of a Universal Basic Income. Roosevelt Institute, Retrieved February 22, 2019 from http://rooseveltinstitute.org/modeling-macroeconomic-effects-ubi/
- Nomaler, Ö. & Verspagen, B. (2018). Perpetual growth, distribution, and robots, UNU-MERIT Working Paper Series.
- Oberson, X. (2017). Taxing Robots? From the Emergence of an Electronic Ability to Pay on Robots or the Use of Robots. World Tax Journal, 9(2), 247-261.
- OECD. (2015). The Future of Productivity. Retrieved January 18, 2019, from https://www.oecd.org/eco/OECD-2015-The-future-of-productivity-book.pdf
- Pettinger, T. (2017). Should we tax robots? Economichelps. Retrieved Januar 05, 2019 from https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/132881/business/should-we-tax-robots/
- PewResearchCenter. (2014). Digital Life in 2025. AI, Robotics, and the Future of Jobs.
- Prodhan, G. & Williams, A. (2017). European parliament calls for robot law, rejects robot tax. Reuters. Retrieved Fabruary 10, 2019, from https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-robots-lawmaking/european-parliament-calls-for-robot-law-rejects-robot-tax-idUSKBN15V2KM
- PwC (2018). Will Robots Really Steal Our Jobs? An International Analysis of The Potential Long Term Impact of Automation, Retrieved January 23, 2019, from https://www.pwc.com/hu/hu/kiadvanyok/assets/pdf/impact_of_automation_on_jobs.pdf
- Rifkin, J. (1995). The End of Work: The Decline of the Global Labor Force and the Dawn of the Post-Market Era. Putnam Publishing Group.
- Schumpeter, J. (2003). Capitalism, Socialism and Democracy, Routledge London & New York 1943, e-Kitap Basımı: Taylor & Francis e-Library (2003).
- Schwab, K. & Davis. N. (2019). Dördüncü Sanayi Devrimini Şekillendirmek. World Economic Forum. Istanbul: Optimist.
- Songur, M. & Saraç, F. E. (2017). Cobb-Douglas, CES, VES ve Translog Üretim Fonksiyonlarının Tahminleri Üzerine Genel Bir Değerlendirme. Bulletin of Economic Theory and Analysis, 2(3), 235-278.
- Sonmucid (2017). Endüstri 4.0’dan Sonra Yeni Çağ Meslekleri. Sonmucid’s Blog. Erişim Tarihi: 10.01.2019, https://sonmucid.wordpress.com/2017/08/14/endustri-4-0dan-sonra-yeni-cag-meslekleri/
- Sullivan, A. (2017). The robots are coming, and they might have to pay tax. Retrieved March 03, 2019, from https://www.economicshelp.org/blog/132881/business/should-we-tax-robots/
- TÜSİAD. (2018). Dijital Teknolojiler ve Ekonomik Büyüme. İstanbul: TÜSİAD.
- Türk Dil Kurumu. Erişim Tarihi: 06.01.2019, http://www.tdk.gov.tr/index.php?option=com_gts&arama=gts&guid=TDK.GTS.5c83f2f181c431.88649146
- United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, Retrieved March 02, 2019, from http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/population/publications/database/index.asp
- Wall ve Andes (2015), Robots Seem to Be Improving Productivity,Not Costing obs. Harward Business Review. Retrieved February 10, 2019 from https://hbr.org/2015/06/robots-seem-to-be-improving-productivity-not-costing-jobs
- Wildhaber, I. (2016). Die Roboter kommen – Konsequenzen für Arbeit und Arbeitsrecht. Zeitschrift für Schweizerisches Recht. Band 135 I, Heft 4, 315-351.
- Wolla, S.A. (2018). Will Robots Take Our Jobs?. Economic Research, Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis, Retrieved December 29, 2018, from https://research.stlouisfed.org/publications/page1-econ/2018/01/02/will-robots-take-our-jobs
- World Economic Forum (WEF). (2018). The Future of Jobs Report 2018, Retrieved February 16, 2019, from: http://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Future_of_Jobs_2018.pdf