Comparison of the Economical Indicators of Turkey and European Union States via Decision Tree Method

Year 2012, Volume: 2012 Issue: 2, 1 - 16, 03.12.2012

Dilek Altaş Vildan Gülpınar

Abstract

The EU membership and accession process are essential in economical and social aspects for Turkey and many other non-member states. In this study the criteria for determining the candidate states and how these criteria affect the accession process have been a question for debate recently. The purpose of the study is to investigate whether the level of economic development criteria had an impact on the EU accession process and if they have an impact, to determine which economic criteria are the most important. The model, developed as a result of this study, allows the states considering applying for full membership to estimate their acceptance time. In line with the purpose of the study, Inflation Rates, Export, Import, Exchange Rates, Unemployment Rates, Total Labor, Fixed Capital Investments, Gross Domestic Product and Population Density variables of Turkey and 20 EU member states have been analyzed. Macroeconomic data is calculated based on the change in the values between the year of application for full membership and the year they are awarded full membership. Since the founder states were not subject to accession process they are not under scope of the study. In application, the C4.5 algorithm data was manually derived, and certain rules have been reached. The data used in the manual solution of the C4.5 algorithm were then applied to the J48 and J48-Part algorithms in WEKA (Waikato Environment for Knowledge Analysis) computer program and the obtained results have been discussed.

Keywords

European Union, Data Mining, Decision Trees, C4.5 Algorithm, J48 Algorithm

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