Türkiye Ekonomisinde Enflasyon ve Kamu Sektörü Açığı Arasındaki Dinamik İlişkiler ve Makro-Ekonomik Yansımaları 1975-2016

Abstract

Temel makro ekonomik göstergeler arasında, özellikle enflasyon ve kamu sektörü açığındaki bozulma süreci 1980’lı yıllarda başlamış ve 1990’larda hızlanmıştır. Bu makalede, enflasyon ile kamu sektörü açığı arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki ve bu ilişkinin sonucunda ortaya çıkan makro ekonomik dinamiklerin analizi amaçlanmıştır. Analizde kullanılan değişkenler enflasyon oranı, faiz ödemeleri/bütçe harcamaları, bütçe açığı/GSYH, dolaşımdaki para ve döviz kurudur. Uzun dönemli ilişki için Johansen eşbütünleşme yöntemi, nedensellik sınamaları için ise VECM tabanlı Granger analizi kullanılmıştır. Örnek dönemi 1975-2016 yıllarıdır. Araştırmadan elde edilen en önemli sonuç, yüksek ve kronik enflasyon oranlarının, başta kamu sektörü dengesi olmak üzere, temel makro ekonomik değişkenlerde ortaya çıkan bozulmaların en önemli sorumlularından birisi olduğudur. Benzer şekilde, 2000’li yıllarda kamu dengesinde sağlanan olumlu gelişmelerin temelinde de, enflasyon oranlarının hızlı ve kalıcı bir şekilde düşmesi yatmaktadır.

The Dynamic Relationships Between Inflation and Public Sector Deficit in the Turkish Economy and Its Macroeconomic Implications 1975–2016

Abstract

The process of deterioration in the fundamentals, in particular those related to inflation and the public sector deficits, that had started in the 1980’s have accelerated in the 1990’s. In this context, this paper examines the long-term relationship between inflation and the public sector deficit and provides an analysis of the macro dynamics that derive from this relationship. The variables used in the analysis are inflation rate, interest payments/budget expenditures, budget deficit/GDP, money in circulation and exchange rate. Johansen cointegration method was used for longterm relationship and VECM-based Granger analysis was used for causality tests. The sample period is 1975-2016.The most important result of this article is that high and chronic inflation rates are one of the responsible of deterioration which appeared on the main economic variables particularly in the public sector balance. Similarly, in the 2000’s, on the basis of positive developments in the public balance lies in falling inflation rates quickly and permanently.

Keywords

• Inflation, Public Sector Deficit, Johansen Cointegration, VECM, Causality

References

1. Akçay, O., Cevdet, C., Alper ve Özmucur S. (1996), “Budget Deficit, Money Supply and Inflation: Evidence from Low and High Frequency Data for Turkey”. Bogazici University Research Papers, No: 96/12, 1-12. Aktan, C. (2002).
2. http://www.canaktan.org/ekonomi/kamu_maliyesi/maliye-iflas/lord- keynes.htm
3. Akyürek, C. (1999), “An Empirical Analysis of Post-Liberalization Inflation in Turkey”, Yapı Kredi Economic Review, 10 (2), 31–53.
4. Alper, C. E. ve Üçer M. (1998), “Some Observations on Turkish Inflation: A Random WalkDown the Past Decade”, Bogazici Journal: Review of Social, Economic and Administrative Studies, vol. 12, No.1, 7-38.
5. Altıntaş, H., Çetintaş, H. ve Taban, S. (2008), “Econometric Analysis Of The Relationship Between Budget Deficit, Monetary Growth And Inflation In Turkey: 1992–2006”, Anadolu University Journal of Social Sciences, Vol:8, No: 2, 185-208.
6. Barro, J. R. (1974), “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?”, Journal of Political Economy, 59 (2), 93-116.
7. Barro, J. R. (1989), “Interest Rate Targeting”, Journal of Monetary Economics, No:23, 3-30.
8. Carnpillo, M. ve Miron, J. A. (1996), “Why Does Inflation Differ Across Countries?”, NBER Working Papers, No. 5540, 1-38.

9. Catao, L. ve Terrones, M. (2001), “Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: A New Look at the Emerging Market Evidence”, IMF Working Papers, WP/01/74, 1-31.
10. Click, R. (1998), “Seigniorage in a Cross-Section of Countries”, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, No. 30, 154-163.
11. Çakman, K. ve Çakmak, U. (2003), “An Analysis Of The Crisis-Dynamics In The Post-1989 Turkish Economy”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, No:213, 29–50.
12. Çetintas, H. (2005), “Türkiye’de Bütçe Açıkları Enflasyonun Nedeni midir?” , İktisat İşletme ve Finans, Vol. 20, No. 229, 115-31.
13. Doğru, B. (2014), “Is There a Causality Relationshıp Between Budget Deficit and Inflation Ratio During High Inflation Period? Case of Turkey Between 1978 and 2002”, Eskişehir Osmangazi University, Journal of Economics and Administrative Science, No:9(1), 113- 129.
14. Darrat, A. F. (1997), “Domestic and International Sources of Inflation in Some Muslim Countries: An Empirical Inquiry”, The Middle East Business and Economic Review, 9 (1), 14–24.
15. Dornbusch, R. ve Sturzenegger, F. ve Wolf, H. (1990), “Extreme Inflation: Dynamics and Stabilization”, Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Vol 2, 1-84.
16. Erçel, G. (2001), Konuşmalar (2000), Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT) Ankara, 1–188.
17. Friedman, M. (1963), Inflation: Causes and Consequences, Bombay: Asia Publishing House, Reprinted in Friedman, Dollars and Deficits, Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: F'rentice-Hall, 1968, p. 39.
18. Fisher, I. (1911), The Purchasing Power of Money, New York, MacMillan Ltd, 1963.
19. Günaydın, İ. (2004), “Are Budget Deficit Inflationary? An Analysis For Turkey”, Dokuz Eylul University Journal of Graduate School of Social Sciences, Vol: 6, No. 1, 158-181.
20. Johansen, S. (1991), “Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models”, Econometrica, 59, 1551–1580.
21. Johansen, S. (1995), Likelihood-based Inference in Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Models, Oxford: Oxford University Press.
22. Kibritçioğlu, A. (2002), Causes of Inflation in Turkey: A Literature Survey with Special Reference to Theories of Inflation, in Kibritçioğlu, Aykut, Rittenberg, Libby ve Selçuk, Faruk (Eds.), Inflation and Disinflation in-Turkey, Hampshire: Ashgate Publishing Limited, 43-76.
23. Kibritçioğlu, A. (2004), “A Short Review of the Long History of Turkish High Inflation”, http://econwpa.repec.org/eps/mac/papers/0404/0404003.pdf, 1-27.
24. Lane, P. (1995), “Inflation in Open Economies”, Journal of International Economics, No. 42, 327-347.
25. Mishkin, S. F. (1984), “The Causes Of Inflation”, NBER Working Paper, No. 1453, 1-28
26. Oktayer, A. (2010), “Budget Deficits, Monetary Growth and Inflation Relationship in Turkey”, Maliye Dergisi, No:158, 431-447.
27. Osterwald-Lenum, M. (1992), “A Note with Quantiles of the Asymptotic Distribution of the Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Rank Test Statistics”, Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Volume 54, Issue 3, 461–472.
28. Özgün, B. D. (2000), “An Empirical Approach to Fiscal Deficits and Inflation: Evidence From Turkey”, The Undersecretariat of Treasury General Directorate of Economic Research Working Papers, 1-28.
29. Öniş, Z. ve Özmucur, S. (1990), “Exchange Rates, Inflation and Money Supply in Turkey: Testing the Vicious Circle Hypothesis”, Journal of Development Economics, 32 (1): 133–54.
30. Perron, P. (1997), “Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables”, Journal of Econometrics, 80 (2), 355-385.
31. Romer, D. (1993), “Openness and Inflation: Theory and Evidence”, Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, 869-903.
32. Sargent, A., Thomas J. ve Wallace N. (1981), “Some Unpleasant Monetarist Arithmetic”, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Quarterly Review, Vol 5, No: 3, 1-17.
33. Togan, S. (1987), “The Influence of Money and the Rate of Interest on the Rate of Inflation in a Financially Repressed Economy: The Case of Turkey”, Applied Economics, 19 (12): 1585–601.
34. Tokgöz, E. (1998), Türkiye İktisadi Gelişme Tarihinin Ana Çizgileri (1923–1997), Ed: Ahmet Şahinöz, Turkish Economic Association, Turhan, Ankara, 3–41.
35. Türkkan, E. (1998). 1990 Sonrasında Türkiye’de Sanayileşme, Türkiye Ekonomisi Sektörel Analiz, Ed: Ahmet Şahinöz, Turkish Economic Association, Turhan, Ankara, 113–145.
36. TÜSİAD (2002), Enflasyon ve Büyüme Dinamikleri: Gelişmekte Olan Ülke Deneyimleri Işığında Türkiye Analizi, No: TÜSİAD-T/2002-12/341, İstanbul, 1-125.
37. Uygur, E. (2001), Türkiye’de Enflasyon, Türkiye Ekonomisi Sektörel Analiz, Ed: Ahmet Şahinöz, Turkish Economic Association, Turhan, Ankara, 357–411.
38. Uygur, E. (2003), “The Dynamics of Inflation and Stability”, İktisat İşletme ve Finans, No: 211, 50–67.
39. Vogelsang, J. T. (1993), Essays On Testing for Nonstationarities and Structural Change in Time Series Models, Unpublished Ph.D. Dissertation, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ.
40. Yılmaz, E. (2012), Gt ve Kamu Borçlanması Üzerine Keynes’in Genel Teorisi Üzerine , Ed: Selçuk Akalın, Ahmet İncekara ve Gülsüm Akalın, Kalkeon, İstanbul, 1-20. www.ekonomi.gov.tr www.hazine.gov.tr www.kalkinma.gov.tr www.tcmb.gov.tr www.tuik.gov.tr
41. http://stats.oecd.org/