Makroekonomik İstikrarın ve İstikrarsızlığın Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: G-20 Ülkeleri İçin Bir Panel Veri Analizi 1994-2015

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, iç ve dış denge koşullarını bir arada gözeten temel makroekonomik göstergelerden türetilen makroekonomik istikrar/istikrarsızlık endeksinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkileri, G-20 üyesi ülkeler üzerinde 1994-2015 dönemi için ekonometrik olarak incelenmektedir. Çalışmada, makroekonomik istikrarın/istikrarsızlığın ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin daha tutarlı bir şekilde incelenebilmesi için G-20 ülkeleri ekonomik açıdan gelişmiş G-9 ve gelişmekte olan G-10 ülkeleri olarak iki alt grupta analize dâhil edilmişlerdir. Çalışma sonucunda, inceleme döneminde iç ve dış denge şartlarını bir arada gözeten makroekonomik istikrar/istikrarsızlık endeksinin ekonomik büyüme üzerindeki etkilerinin G-9 ve G-10 gruplarında sırasıyla pozitif/negatif yönlü olduğu ve istatistiki açıdan anlamlı olduğu tespit edilmiştir. Bununla birlikte, çalışmada G-9 ve G-10 grubundaki ülkelerin, uzun vadeli ekonomik büyüme performanslarının ve ekonomik açıdan gelişmişlik düzeylerinin farklılaşmasında fiziksel-beşeri sermaye birikiminin ve dış dünyayla bütünleşme derecelerinin yanında makroekonomik açıdan sırasıyla istikrarlı ve istikrarsız bir yapıya sahip olmalarının daha fazla etkili olduğu belirlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Sürdürülebilir Büyüme, Makroekonomik İstikrar/İstikrarsızlık Endeksi, G-20 Ülkeleri, Panel Veri Analizi.

The Effects of Macroeconomic Stability and Instability on Economic Growth: A Panel Data Analysis for The G-20 Countries 1994-2015

Abstract

In this study, the effects of macroeconomic stability/instability index derived from basic macroeconomic indicators which observe internal and external equilibrium conditions together on economic growth is examined by econometric method for the period of 1994- 2015 on the G-20 member countries. In the study, the G-20 countries were included in two sub-groups as economically developed G-9 and developing G-10 countries to examine more consistently the effects of macroeconomic stability/instability on economic growth. As a result of the study, it was determined that the effects of the macroeconomic stability / instability index, which considers the internal and external equilibrium conditions in the examination period, on the economic growth were positive / negative in the G-9 and G10 groups respectively and statistically significant. Additionally in the study, It has been determined that the countries in the G-9 and G-10 groups have a more stable and unstable macroeconomic structure in addition to the accumulation of physical-human capital accumulation and external world integration in the differentiation of long-term economic growth performance and economic development level.

Keywords

• Sustainable Growth, Macroeconomic Stability/Instability Index, The G-20 Countries, Panel Data Analysis.

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