Türkiye’nin Orta Gelir Tuzağı Problemine İlişkin Ampirik Bir Yorum

Abstract

Bu çalışma, orta gelir tuzağı ve Türkiye’de bu tuzağa sebep olduğu düşünülen faktörler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisini ortaya koyabilmek amacıyla oluşturulmuştur. Ampirik yoldan bu ilişkinin ortaya çıkartılmasının, bu yeni kavrama bilimsel katkıda bulunacağı ümit edilmektedir. Bundan hareketle, orta gelir tuzağı ile “yüksek teknoloji ihracatı” ve “eğitim için kamu harcamaları” arasındaki ilişki araştırılmıştır. Bu faktörlerin, üst orta gelir grubunda bir ülke olmasına rağmen uzun yıllardır Türkiye’nin içine düştüğü bu tuzaktan çıkması için gerekli belirleyiciler olduğu düşünülmüştür. 1983-2013 dönemi için yapılan zaman serisi analizleri Türkiye’nin, eğitim alanında kamu harcamalarına gerekli önemi verirse, orta gelir tuzağından çıkmasına yardımcı olacağını göstermektedir.

Keywords

• Orta Gelir Tuzağı,Granger Nedensellik,Yüksek Teknoloji

An Empirical Remark about Middle Income Trap Problem for Turkey

Abstract

This study has been performed to indicate the causality relationship between the middle income trap and the factors which are considered to be reasons for this trap in Turkey. It is expected that revealing this relationship in an empirical way will contribute scientifically to this new concept. Starting from this point of view, the relationship between middle income trap, high technology export and public spending on education has been researched. It is thought that these factors are necessary indicators for Turkey to overcome the trap even though it has been a country of upper middle income group. Time serial analysis made for the years 1983-2013 suggests that Turkey can overcome the middle-income trap if it attaches enough importance for public spending on education.

Keywords

• Middle Income Trap, Granger-Causality, High Technology Export, Public Spending on Education.

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