Enflasyon ve Konut Fiyatları: İstanbul, Ankara ve İzmir İçin Panel Veri Analizi

Year 2019, Volume: 7 Issue: 1, 93 - 99, 01.01.2019

Bahar İslamoğlu Şaban Nazlıoğlu

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, enflasyon oranının konut fiyatları üzerindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Bu çerçevede geliştirilen ampirik model, İstanbul, Ankara ve İzmir illeri için 2010q1–2017q4 dönemi verileri kullanılarak, panel veri yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Konut fiyatlarının enflasyon oranına göre birim esnekliğe sahip olduğu bulgusunun yanı sıra konut talep esnekliğinin 0.06 ve nüfus esnekliğinin 1.55 olduğu sonucuna ulaşılmıştır. Bu bulgular makroekonomik faktörlerin Türkiye konut piyasasında fiyatların önemli bir belirleyicisi olduğunu göstermektedir.

Keywords

Konut Fiyatları, Enflasyon, Türkiye, Panel Veri.

Inflation and Housing Prices: A Panel Data Analysis for Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the effect of inflation rate on housing prices. The empirical model developed in this framework was estimated by using panel data method for Istanbul, Ankara and Izmir over the 2010q1–2017q4 period. Findings show that housing prices have a unit elasticity with respect to the inflation rate. We also find out that the elasticity of housing prices with respect to housing demand and population is 0.06 and 1.97, respectively. These findings illustrate that the macro-economic factors are important drives of housing prices in Turkey.

Keywords

Housing Prices, Inflation. Turkey, Panel Data.

References

• Anari, A. ve Kolari, J. (2002), House Prices and Inflation, Real Estate Economics, 30(1), pp. 67-84.
• Apergis, N. ve Rezitis A. (2003), Housing Prices and Macroeconomic Factors in Greece: Prospects within the EMU, Applied Economics Letters, Vol: 10, pp. 799-804.
• Bjorland, H. C. ve Jacobsen D. H. (2010), The Role of House Prices in the Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanism in Small Open Economies, Journal of Financial Stability Vol.: 6, pp. 218-229.
• Bond, M. ve Seiler, M. J. (1998), Real Estate Returns and Inflation: An Added Variable Approach, Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, Vol.: 15(3), pp. 327-338.
• Case, K. E. ve Shiller, J. (1990), Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market, Real Estate Economics, Vol.: 18, No: 3, pp. 253-273.
• Clapp, J. ve Carmelo G. (1994), The Influence of Economic Variables on Local House Price Dynamics, Journal of Urban Economics, 36(2), 161-183.
• Deng, Y. (2010), Appreciation of RMB, Surge of Housing Price and Inflation-Does Surge of Housing Price Promote Inflation?, Journal of Shanxi Finance and Economics University, Vol.: 10-10.
• Guo,H., Wang,D. ve Ma, X. (2015), A Study on the Relationship between Housing Prices and Inflation from the Perspective of Bank Credit, Metallurgical & Mining Industry. Issue:9, pp. 473-477.
• Hossain B. ve Latif E. (2009), Determinants of Housing Price Volatility in Canada: a Dynamic Analysis, Applied Economics, Vol.: 41, pp. 3521-3531.
• Iacoviello, M. ve Neri, S. (2010), Housing Market Spillovers: Evidence From an Estimated DSGE Model, American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2, pp.125-164.
• Kenny, G. (1999), Modelling the Demand and Supply Sides of the Housing Market: Evidence from Ireland, Economic Modelling, Vol.: 16, pp. 389-409.
• Li, J. ve Chen X. (2015), Analysis of China's Real Estate Prices and Macroeconomy Based on Evolutionary Co-Spectral Method, Journal of Industrial Engineering and Management, Vol.: 8, pp. 598-614.
• Ling, D. ve Naranjo, A. (1997), Economic Risk Factors and Commercial Real Estate Returns, The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, 14, pp. 283-307.
• Lotz, R. I. ve Gupta, R. (2013), The Long-Run Relationship Between House Prices and Inflation in South Africa: an ARDL Approach, International Journal of Strategic Property Management, Vol.: 17, pp. 188-198
• Lu, M. ve Zhang, Y. (2011), Linkage Analysis among Real Estate Market, Stock Market and Inflation-Empirical Studies Based on VAR model, Journal of Beihua University (Social Sciences), 2011-02, pp. 29-36.
• Meidani, A. A. N.,Zabihi M. ve Ashena M. (2011), House Prices, Economic Output, and Inflation Interactions in Iran, Research in Applied Economics, Vol.:3.
• Newell, G. (1996), The Inflation-Hedging Characteristics of Australian Commercial Property: 1984–1995, Journal of Property Finance, 7(1), pp. 6–20.
• Paksoy, S., Yöntem, T. ve Büyükçelebi, B. (2014), Konut Fiyat Endeksi ve Enflasyon Arasındaki İlişki” (TRC1, TRC2 ve TRC3 Düzey Bölgeleri Üzerine Ampirik Bir Çalışma), ASSAM Uluslararası Hakemli Dergi, Sayı:2, ss. 54-69.
• Samimi, A. J.,Elmi, Z., ve Hadizadeh, A. (2008), Affecting Factors on House Price Index in Iran, Iranian Journal of Economic Research”, 9(32), 31-53.
• Spellman, L. J. (1981), Inflation and Housing Prices, Real Estate Economics, Vol.: 9, pp. 205- 222.
• Zhongdong, D. (2007), The Relationship between House Price and Inflation, Output, The Journal of Quantıtatıve & Technical Economics, Issue: 12, pp. 127-139.