Asya Ülkelerinde Finansal Gelişme, Ekonomik Büyüme ve Enflasyon İlişkisi

Year 2021, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 19 - 48, 31.12.2021

Farid Alasgarlı , Taner Sekmen

Abstract

Ekonomik yapıda fon transferinin efektif şekilde sağlanması için finansal araç ve kurumların gelişmesi yani, finansal gelişmişlik düzeyinin yüksek olması ekonomik büyümenin sağlanması ve sürdürülebilir olması açısından büyük önem taşımaktadır. Bu çalışmada, finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon üzerindeki etkisi 20 Asya ülkesi için 1998-2018 dönemi yıllık verileri ve panel VAR modeli kullanılarak incelenmiştir. Finansal gelişme göstergeleri olarak geniş paranın GSYH’ya oranının büyüme oranı, yurt içi kredilerin GSYH’ya oranının büyüme oranı ve finansal gelişme endeksinin büyüme oranı değişkenleri kullanılmıştır. Yatay kesit bağımlılığı testi sonuçlarına uygun olarak ikinci nesil panel birim kök testleri ile serilerin durağanlıkları test edildikten sonra Panel VAR modeline dayanan panel Granger nedensellik testi aracılığıyla seriler arasındaki nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve etki-tepki fonksiyonu aracılığıyla da değişkenler arasındaki ilişki incelenmiştir. Ekonometrik analiz sonuçları finansal gelişmenin ekonomik büyüme ve enflasyon üzerinde anlamlı etkileri olduğunu, bu etkinin ekonomik büyüme için pozitif ve artırıcı, enflasyon için ise düşürücü olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Özellikle finansal gelişme düzeyinin artmasının ekonomik büyümeye ve enflasyonun düşürülmesine olumlu etki etmesi politika yapıcıları için finansal gelişme düzeyini artırıcı politikaların uygulanmasını teşvik eder niteliktedir.

Keywords

Finansal gelişme, Ekonomik büyüme, Enflasyon, Asya ülkeleri, Panel VAR Modeli

The Relationship Between Financial Development, Economic Growth and Inflation in Asian Countries

Abstract

In order to ensure effective fund transfer in the economic structure, the development of financial instruments and institutions, that is, the high level of financial development, is of great importance in terms of ensuring economic growth and sustainability. In this study, the effect of financial development on economic growth and inflation was examined for 20 Asian countries using annual data for the period 1998-2018 and panel VAR model. As financial development indicators, the growth rate of the ratio of large money to GDP, the growth rate of the ratio of domestic loans to GDP and the growth rate of the financial development index were used. After testing the stationarity of the series with the second generation panel unit root tests in accordance with the results of the cross-sectional dependency test, the causality relationship between the series was determined by the panel Granger causality test based on the Panel VAR model, and the relationship between the variables was examined through the impulse-response function. The results of econometric analysis reveal that financial development has significant effects on economic growth and inflation, and this effect is positive and increasing for economic growth and decreasing for inflation. In particular, the positive effect of the increase in the level of financial development on economic growth and reducing inflation encourages policy makers to implement policies that increase the level of financial development.

Keywords

Financial development, Economic growth, Inflation, Asian countries, Panel VAR Model

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