Abstract
Türkiye’de doğalgaz fiyatlandırma mekanizması 18.04. 2001 tarihinde kabul edilen doğalgaz piyasası kanunu dahilinde çalışmaktadır. Yurtiçi üretimin yetersizliğinden kaynaklanan yüksek dışa bağımlılık doğal gaz fiyatlandırma sürecini önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye Doğalgaz Piyasalarında fiyat belirleme sürecini etkileyen faktörleri ve yüksek dışa bağımlılığın fiyat belirleme sürecindeki etkisini analiz etmektir. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmada doğalgaz fiyatları ile petrol fiyatları ve reel döviz kuru arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkiler Johansen Eşbütünleşme Testi, Dinamik En Küçük Kareler ve Tam Değiştirilmiş En Küçük Kareler Eşbütünleşme Testleri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Elde edilen bulgulara göre petrol fiyatları doğalgaz fiyatlarını pozitif yönde, reel döviz kuru negatif yönde etkilemektedir.
References
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- Johansen,S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with application to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 52 (2): 169–210.
- Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips C. B., Schmidt, P., and Y. Shin (1992) “ Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root” Journal of Econometrica, 54: 159-178.
- Nelson C. R. and Plosser, C.I. (1982) “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications” journal of Monetary Economics, 10:139-162.
- Phillips, P. ve Perron, P. (1988) “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression” Biometrica, 75, 335-346.
- Phillips, P.C.B., Hansen, B.E. (1990) “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variable Regression With I (1) Processes" Review of Economic Studies, 57:99-125.
- Saikkonen, P., (1991) “Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions” Econometric Theory, 7:1-21.
- Sims, C. A.(1980) “Macroeconomics and Reality”Econometrica, 48: 1-48.
- Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (1993) “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems” Econometrica ,61: 783-820.
Abstract
Turkish natural gas market is a natural monopoly and pricing mechanism operates within natural gas law that was brought into force at 19.04. 2001. High foreign source dependency arising from the lack of domestic production significantly affects price determination process. The aim of this study is to analyze the factors affecting price determination process and the impact of high foreign source depencdency on the price determination process. In this context, in this study, long term relationships between natural gas, oil prices and real exchange rates have been analyzed by using Johansen Cointegration test, Dynamic Least Squares and Fully Modified Least Sequares Coinregratşon Tests. According to the findings there is a positive relationsip between oil prices and natural gas while there is a negative relationship between oil prices and real exchange rate.
References
- Dickey, D. A. and Fuller, W. A. (1979) “Distribution of the Estimators for Autoregressive Time Series With a Unit Root” Journal of the American Statistical Association, 74: 427–431.
- DPT (2006) Dokuzuncu Kalkınma Planı (2007-2013), Ankara: DPT yayınları. Engle, C. Robert, F. and Granger W. J. (1987) “Co-Integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing”,Econometrica, Vol. 55, No. 2: 251-276.
- Erdoğdu, E. (2010a) “A Review of Turkish Natural Gas Distribution Market” Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14: 806-813.
- Erdoğdu, E. (2010b) “Natural Gas Demand in Turkey” Applied Energy, 87: 211-219.
- Granger, C. W. J. and Newbold P. (1974) “Spurious Regressions in Econometrics” Journal of Econometrics, 2: 111-120.
- http://www.mevzuat.gov.tr/MevzuatMetin/1.5.4646.pdf, Doğalgaz Piyasası Kanunu( Elektrik Piyasası Kanununda Değişiklik Yapılması ve Doğalgaz Piyasası Hakkında Kanun), (Erişim Tarihi: 15.05. 2016)
- https://www.izgaz.com.tr/izgaz/dogalgaz-fiyatlari, Doğalgaz Fiyatları, (Erişim Tarihi: 10.05.2015).
- Johansen, S. (1988) “Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors” Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12: 231-254.
- Johansen,S., & Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration with application to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics. 52 (2): 169–210.
- Kwiatkowski, D., Phillips C. B., Schmidt, P., and Y. Shin (1992) “ Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root” Journal of Econometrica, 54: 159-178.
- Nelson C. R. and Plosser, C.I. (1982) “Trends and Random Walks in Macroeconomic Time Series: Some Evidence and Implications” journal of Monetary Economics, 10:139-162.
- Phillips, P. ve Perron, P. (1988) “Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression” Biometrica, 75, 335-346.
- Phillips, P.C.B., Hansen, B.E. (1990) “Statistical Inference in Instrumental Variable Regression With I (1) Processes" Review of Economic Studies, 57:99-125.
- Saikkonen, P., (1991) “Asymptotically Efficient Estimation of Cointegration Regressions” Econometric Theory, 7:1-21.
- Sims, C. A.(1980) “Macroeconomics and Reality”Econometrica, 48: 1-48.
- Stock, J. H. and Watson, M. W. (1993) “A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems” Econometrica ,61: 783-820.
Details
| Subjects | Economics |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | Articles |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | June 1, 2017 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2017 Volume: 6 Issue: 2 |
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