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ÇEKİM MODELİ İLE İÇ TİCARETİN ANALİZİ; KASTAMONU ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2021, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 115 - 139, 10.06.2021

Abstract

Bu çalışmada, Türkiye’de iç ticareti etkileyen bazı faktörlerin Kastamonu örneği ile tespit edilmesi amaçlanmaktadır. İç ticaretin analizinde, Newton’un yer çekimi kanunundan ticarete uyarlanan Çekim Modeli kullanılmıştır. Çekim Modeline göre, iki ekonomik birim arasındaki ticaret akımı, ekonomik büyüklüğü temsil eden gayri safi yurtiçi hasıladan olumlu, birimler arasındaki mesafeden ise olumsuz etkilenmektedir. Ayrıca model, ikili ticareti etkilediği düşünülen farklı değişkenleri de analize dahil etme konusunda başarılı ve literatürde sıkça kullanılan bir modeldir. Çalışmada, standart Çekim Modeli denklemine dahil edilen nüfus ve sınır komşuluğu değişkenleri ile birlikte oluşturulan Genişletilmiş Çekim Modeli denklemi Panel Veri ve PPML yöntemleriyle test edilmiştir. Test edilen veri seti, 2006-2017 yıllarını kapsamaktadır. Elde edilen sonuçlara göre, Çekim Modeli Kastamonu’nun iç ticaretini etkileyen bazı faktörleri belirleme konusunda başarılı bir modeldir. Analiz sonucunda ulaşılan bulgular, Çekim Modeli varsayımları ve literatürdeki yaygın bulgular ile paraleldir.

References

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ANALYSIS OF DOMESTIC TRADE WITH THE GRAVITY MODEL; CASE OF KASTAMONU

Year 2021, Volume: 10 Issue: 2, 115 - 139, 10.06.2021

Abstract

In this study, it is aimed to determine some factors affecting domestic trade in Turkey with Kastamonu example. In the analysis of domestic trade, the Gravity Model adapted to trade from Newton's law of gravity was used. According to the Gravity Model, the trade flow between the two economic units is positively affected by the gross domestic product representing the economic size and negatively affected by the distance between the units. In addition, the model is successful in including different variables that are thought to affect bilateral trade into the analysis and is a model frequently used in the literature. In the study, the Extended Gravity Model equation created with the population and border neighborhood variables added to the standard Gravity Model equation was tested with Panel Data and PPML methods. The tested data set covers the years 2006-2017. According to the results obtained, the Gravity Model is a successful model in determining some factors affecting the domestic trade of Kastamonu. The findings obtained as a result of the analysis are in line with the Gravity Model assumptions and common findings in the literature.

References

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  • ANDERSON, J. E. (1979). A theoretical foundation for the gravity equation. American Economic Review, 69(1), 106-116.
  • ANDERSON, J. E. (2011). The gravity model. Annual Review of Economics, 3(1), 133-160
  • ANDERSON J. E., & VAN WINCOOP, E. (2001). Gravity with gravitas: a solution to the border puzzle. NBER Working Paper, 8079.
  • ANDERSON, J. E., & VAN WINCOOP, E. (2004). Trade costs. Journal of Economic literature, 42(3), 691-751.
  • ANDERSON, J. E., MILOT, C. A., & YOTOV, Y. V. (2011). The incidence of geography on Canada's services trade. NBER Working Paper, 17630.
  • ANSELL, C. (2000). The networked polity: Regional development in Western Europe. Governance, 13(2), 279-291.
  • ASLAN N. & YÖRÜK, D. (2008). Teori ve uygulamada dış ticaret hadleri ve kalkınma ilişkisi. Marmara Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 27(2), 33-69.
  • AŞGIN, S. (2007). Dünyada bölgelerarası gelişmişlik farklarını giderme çabaları ve Türkiye tecrübesi. Türk İdare Dergisi, 29-54.
  • ATA, S. (2012). Türkiye’nin ihracat potansiyeli: Çekim Modeli çerçevesinde bir inceleme. International Conference on Eurasian Economies, 11-13.
  • BACCHETTA, M., BEVERELLI, C., CADOT, O., FUGAZZA, M., GRETHER, J. M., HELBLE, M., ... & PIERMARTINI, R. (2012). A practical guide to trade policy analysis. Geneva, CH: World Trade Organization.
  • BAIER, S. L., & BERGSTRAND, J. H. (2007). Do free trade agreements actually increase members' international trade?. Journal of international Economics, 71(1), 72- 95.
  • BALTAGI, B. H. (2005). Econometric analysis of panel data 3rd edition. John Wiley & Sons Inc, New York.
  • BERGSTRAND, J. H. (1985). The gravity equation in international trade: some microeconomic foundations and empirical evidence. The Review of Economics and Statistics, 67(3), 474-481.
  • BERGSTRAND, J. H. (1989). The generalized gravity equation, monopolistic competition, and the factor-proportions theory in international trade. The Review of Economics and Statistics 71(1): 143-153.
  • BERGSTRAND, J. H., EGGER, P., & LARCH, M. (2013). Gravity Redux: Estimation of gravity-equation coefficients, elasticities of substitution, and general equilibrium comparative statics under asymmetric bilateral trade costs. Journal of International Economics, 89(1), 110–121.
  • BEYOĞLU, D. & ALPAYDIN, U. A. R. (2010). Yeni bölgesel kalkınma stratejilerinde sınır ticaretinin yeri, 1. Uluslararası Sınır Ticareti Kongresi, Kilis.
  • BIKKER, J. A. (1982). Vraag-Aanbodmodellen voor stelsels van geografisch gespreide markten. Toegepast op de ınternationale handel en op ziekenhuisopnamen in Noord Nederland, Amsterdam: VU Boekhandel/Uitgeverij.
  • BIKKER, J. A. (1987). An international trade flow model with substitution: an extension of the Gravity Model. Kyklos, 40(3), 315-337.
  • BREUSS, F., & EGGER, P. (1999). How reliable are estimations of eastwest trade potentials based on cross-section gravity analyses?. Empirica, 26(2), 81-95.
  • BURGER, M., VAN OORT, F., & LINDERS, G. J. (2009). On the specification of the gravity model of trade: Zeros, excess zeros and zero-inflated estimation. Spatial Economic Analysis, 4(2), 167–190.
  • ÇAKMAK, H. K. (2003). Kalkınma iktisadi literatüründe gelişme kavramının evrimi, Hacettepe Üniversitesi İİBF Dergisi, 21(2), 49-68.
  • ÇELİK, M. Y. (2012). Boyutları ve farklı algılarıyla küreselleşme. Dumlupınar Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 32(2), 57-74.
  • DEARDORFF, A. V. (1995). Determinants of bilateral trade: does gravity work in a neo-classic world?. NBER Working Paper, 5377.
  • DEMİR, M. A., & UTKULU, U. (2018). Uluslararası enerji fiyatlarının dünya ticareti üzerine etkisi: Panel Çekim Modeli bulguları. In Proceedings of 4th SCF International Conference on Economics and Social Impacts of Globalization and Future Turkey-European Union Relations, 74-83.
  • DEMİR, M.A. (2019). Uluslararası enerji fiyatlarının dünya ticareti üzerine etkisi. Doktora Tezi, Dokuz Eylül Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Enstitüsü, İzmir.
  • DEMİROĞLU, Ö. (2019). Çekim modeli uygulamasında son gelişmeler ve yapısal/teorik çekim modeli. İstanbul Ticaret Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi, 18(35), 889-904. DİNÇER, G. (2014). Dış ticaret kuramında çekim modeli. Ekonomik Yaklaşım, 24(88), 1-34.
  • EGGER, P. (2000). A note on the proper econometric specification of the gravity equation. Economics Letters, 66(1), 25-31.
  • EGGER, P. (2002). An econometric view on the estimation of gravity models and the calculation of trade potentials. World Economy, 25(2), 297-312.
  • FILATOV, A., & NOVIKOVA, A. (2015). The gravity model of interregional trade: Case of Eastern Siberia. Czech Journal of Social Sciences, Business and Economics, 4(3), 39-45.
  • FIRDAUS, M., & WIDYASANTI, A. A. (2010). Indonesian interprovincial trade: What can be revealed from a gravity modeling?, Indonesian Regional Science Association, Surabaya: Indonesia.
  • FRANKEL, J. A. (1997). Regional trading blocs in the world economic system, Washington D.C.: Institute for International Economics.
  • GHEMAWAT, P., LLANO, C., & REQUENA, F. (2009). Rethinking regional competitiveness: Catalonia's international and interregional trade 1995-2006. IESE Research Papers; Working Paper, D/802-E.
  • GOMEZ-HERRERA, E. (2013). Comparing alternative methods to estimate gravity models of bilateral trade. Empirical Economics, 44(3), 1087-1111.
  • GREENE, W. H. (2013). Export potential for us advanced technology goods to India using a Gravity Model approach. US International Trade Commission, Working Paper, 2013-03B, 1-43.
  • HEAD, K. (2003). Gravity for beginners. Mimeo, University of British Columbia, 2053.
  • HECKMAN, J. J. (1979). Sample selection bias as a specification error. Econometrica: Journal of the econometric society, 153-161.
  • HELPMAN, E., & KRUGMAN, P.R. (1985). Market structure and foreign trade. Increasing returns, imperfect competition, and the international economy. The MIT Press, Cambridge, MA/London.
  • HELPMAN, E., MELITZ, M., & RUBINSTEIN, Y. (2008). Estimating trade flows: Trading partners and trading volumes. The quarterly journal of economics, 123(2), 441-487.
  • JAFARI, Y., ISMAİL, M. A., & KOUHESTANI, M. S. (2011). Determinants of Trade Flows among D8 Countries: Evidence from the gravity model. Journal of Economic Cooperation & Development, 32(3), 21-38.
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There are 86 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language Turkish
Subjects Economics
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Mehmet Yunus Çelik This is me

Özkan Abaz This is me

Publication Date June 10, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 10 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Çelik, M. Y., & Abaz, Ö. (2021). ÇEKİM MODELİ İLE İÇ TİCARETİN ANALİZİ; KASTAMONU ÖRNEĞİ. Sakarya İktisat Dergisi, 10(2), 115-139.