A GENERAL OVERVIEW ON THE REGION-TIME BEHAVIORS OF THE RECENT EARTHQUAKE ACTIVITY IN THE MARMARA REGION OF TURKEY

Abstract

The principal aim of this study is to make a general assessment of the regional and temporal behaviors of the seismicity in the Marmara region of Turkey. For this purpose, the well-known spatio-temporal tools such as Mc-value, b-value, Dc-value, Z-value, recurrence period and annual probability were evaluated. The data catalog is homogeneous for local magnitude, ML, and includes 18,662 events with 0.4≤ML≤5.7 between 2000 and 2020. Earthquake magnitudes change between 1.5 and 3.0 and hence, Mc-value was taken as 2.7. b-value was calculated as 1.14±0.07 and the earthquakes with small magnitude can be effective on this relatively large value. Dc-value was estimated as 1.57±0.03 with a scale invariance from 5.03 to 87.64 km. This moderate value means that distance between the epicenters approaches the diameter of cluster and, earthquake activity is more clustered in larger areas or at smaller scales. Time-magnitude estimations of annual probability and recurrence period indicate that the Marmara region has an intermediate/long terms hazard for the occurrence of strong/large earthquakes. Anomaly regions with low b-value and large Z-value observed at the beginning of 2019 can be considered as the most likely regions for strong/large earthquake occurrences in the next. As a remarkable fact, a correlation and combined interpretation of these seismotectonic parameters may supply a preliminary and essential perspective in the seismic hazard for strong/large earthquake occurrences in the Marmara region of Turkey in the intermediate/long terms.

Keywords

• Marmara region
• Mc-value
• b-value
• Dc-value
• Z-value
• seismic hazard

References

1. [1] S. Wiemer and M. Wyss, “Minimum magnitude of completeness in earthquake catalogs: Examples from Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan,” BSSA, vol. 90, no. 3, pp. 859-869, 2000.
2. [2] A. O. Öncel and T. H. Wilson, “Space-time correlations of ceismotectonic parameters and examples from Japan and Turkey preceding the İzmit earthquake,” BSSA, vol. 92, no. 1, pp. 339-350, 2002.
3. [3] O. Polat, E. Gok and D. Yılmaz, “Earthquake hazard of the Aegean extension region (west Turkey),” Turkish J. Earth Sci., vol. 17, no. 3, pp. 593-614, 2008.
4. [4] S. Roy, U. Ghosh, S. Hazra and J. R. Kayal, “Fractal dimension and b-value mapping in the Andaman-Sumatra subduction zone,” Nat. Hazards, vol. 57, pp. 27-37, 2011.
5. [5] S. Öztürk, “A statistical assessment of current seismic quiescence along the North Anatolian Fault Zone: Earthquake precursors,” Austrian J. Earth Sci., vol. 106, no. 2, pp. 4-17, 2013.
6. [6] C. Raub, P. Martínez-Garzón, G. Kwiatek, M. Bohnhoff and G. Dresen, “Variations of seismic b-value at different stages of the seismic cycle along the North Anatolian Fault Zone in northwestern Turkey,” Tectonophysics, vol. 712-713, pp. 232-248, 2017.
7. [7] C. Ozer, M. Ozyazicioglu, E. Gok and O. Polat, “Imaging the crustal structure throughout the East Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey, by local earthquake tomography,” Pure Appl. Geophys., vol. 176, no. 6, 2235-2261, 2019.
8. [8] S. Uner, E. Ozsayin and A. S. Selcuk, “Seismites as an indicator for determination of earthquake recurrence interval: A case study from Erciş Fault (Eastern Anatolia-Turkey),” Tectonophysics, vol. 766, pp. 167-178, 2019.

9. [9] S. Öztürk, “A study on the variations of recent seismicity in and around the Central Anatolian region of Turkey,” Physics of the Earth and Planetary Interiors, vol. 301, no. 106453, pp. 1-10, 2020.
10. [10] R. Gutenberg and C. F. Richter, “Frequency of earthquakes in California,” BSSA, vol. 34, no. 4, pp. 185-188, 1944.
11. [11] C. H. Scholz, “The frequency-magnitude relation of microfracturing in rock and its relation to earthquakes,” BSSA, vol. 58, pp. 399-415, 1968.
12. [12] B. Enescu and K. Ito, “Spatial analysis of the frequency-magnitude distribution and decay rate of aftershock activity of the 2000 Western Tottori earthquake,” Earth Planets Space, vol. 54, pp. 847–859, 2002.
13. [13] S. Öztürk, “Characteristics of seismic activity in the western, central and eastern parts of the North Anatolian Fault Zone, Turkey: Temporal and spatial analysis,” Acta Geoph., vol. 59, no.2, pp. 209-238, 2011.
14. [14] S. Öztürk, “A study on the correlations between seismotectonic b-value and Dc-value, and seismic quiescence Z-value in the Western Anatolian region of Turkey,” Austrian J. Earth Sci., vol. 108, no. 2, pp. 172-184, 2015.
15. [15] K. Chiba, “Spatial and temporal distributions of b-values related to long-term slow-slip and low-frequency earthquakes in the Bungo Channel and Hyuga-nada regions, Japan,” Tectonophysics, vol. 757, pp. 1-9, 2019.
16. [16] C. Goltz, “Fractal and chaotic properties of earthquakes,” (Lecture Notes in Earth Sciences, 77) Springer-Verlag, 178 pp, 1998.
17. [17] A. O. Öncel and T. H. Wilson, “Correlation of seismotectonic variables and GPS strain- measurements in western Turkey,” J. Geophys. Res., vol. 109(B11), no. B11306, 2004.
18. [18] S. Pailoplee and M. Choowong, “Earthquake frequency-magnitude distribution and fractal dimension in mainland Southeast Asia,” Earth Planets Space, vol. 66, no. 8, pp. 1-10, 2014.
19. [19] S. Öztürk, “Earthquake hazard potential in the Eastern Anatolian part of Turkey: seismotectonic b and Dc-values, and precursory quiescence Z-value,” Frontiers of Earth Sci., vol. 12, no. 1, pp. 215-236, 2018.
20. [20] L. Telesca and Ch-ch. Chen, “Fractal and spectral investigation of the shallow seismicity in Taiwan,” J. Asian Earth Sci., vol. 174, pp. 1-10, 2019.
21. [21] M. Wyss and A. H. Martirosyan, “Seismic quiescence before the M7, 1988, Spitak earthquake, Armenia,” Geophys. J. Int., vol. 134, no. 2, pp. 329-340, 1998.
22. [22] M. Wyss and R. E. Habermann, “Precursory seismic quiescence,” Pure Appl. Geophys., vol. 126, no. 2-4, pp. 319-332, 1988.
23. [23] W. J. Arabasz and M. Wyss, “Significant precursory seismic quiescences in the extensional Wasatch front region Utah,” EOS Trans. AGU 77, F455, 1996.
24. [24] R. Console, C. Montuori and M. Murru, “Statistical assessment of seismicity patterns in Italy: Are they precursors of subsequent events?,” J. Seismol., vol. 4, pp. 435-449, 2000.
25. [25] K. Katsumata, “Precursory seismic quiescence before the Mw=8.3 Tokachi‐oki, Japan, earthquake on 26 September 2003 revealed by a re‐examined earthquake catalog,” J. Geophys. Res., vol. 116, no. B10307, 2011.
26. [26] S. Öztürk, “Space-time assessing of the earthquake potential in recent years in the Eastern Anatolia region of Turkey,” Earth Sci. Res. J., vol. 21, no. 2, pp. 67-75, 2017.
27. [27] S. Gentili, A. Peresan, M. Talebi, M. Zare and R. D. Giovambattista, “A seismic quiescence before the 2017 Mw 7.3 Sarpol Zahab (Iran) earthquake: Detection and analysis by improved RTL method,” Phys. Earth Planet. Inter., vol. 290, pp. 10-19, 2019.
28. [28] E. Bozkurt, “Neotectonics of Turkey – a synthesis,” Geodin. Acta, vol. 14, no. 1-3, pp. 3-30, 2001.
29. [29] R. E. Reilinger, S. C. McClusky, M. B. Oral, W. King and M. N. Toksöz, “Global Positioning System measurements of present-day crustal movements in the Arabian-Africa-Eurasia plate collision zone,” J. Geoph. Res., vol. 102, pp. 9983-9999, 1997.
30. [30] F. Şaroğlu, Ö. Emre and İ. Kuşcu, “Active fault map of Turkey,” General Directorate of Mineral Research and Exploration, Ankara, Turkey, 1992.
31. [31] R. Demirtaş and R. Yılmaz, “Türkiye’nin sismotektonigi; Sismisitedeki uzun süreli değişim ve güncel sismisiteyi esas alarak deprem tahminine bir yaklaşım,” T.C. Bayındırlık ve İskan Bakanlığı Yayını, 91 s., Ankara, 1996.
32. [32] Ö. Emre, T. Y. Duman, S. Özalp, F. Şaroğlu, Ş. Olgun, H. Elmacı and T. Çan, “Active fault database of Turkey,” Bull. Earthquake Eng., vol. 16, pp. 3229-3275, 2018.
33. [33] D. Kalafat, “Statistical Evaluation of Turkey Earthquake Data (1900-2015): A Case study,” Eastern Anatolian Journal of Science, vol. 2, pp. 14-36, 2016.
34. [34] T. Utsu, “Aftershock and Earthquake Statistic (III): Analyses of the Distribution of Earthquakes in Magnitude, Time and Space with Special Consideration to Clustering Characteristics of Earthquake Occurrence (1)”, J. of Faculty of Sci., Hokkaido Univ., Series VII (Geophysics) vol. 3, no. 5, pp. 379-441, 1971.
35. [35] C. Frohlich and S. Davis, “Teleseismic b-values: Or, much ado about 1.0,” J. Geoph. Res., vol. 98, no. B1, pp. 631-644, 1993.
36. [36] K. Mogi, “Magnitude-frequency relation for elastic shocks accompanying fractures of various materials and some related problems in earthquakes,” Bull. Earthquake Res. Inst., Tokyo Univ., vol. 40, pp. 831-853, 1962.
37. [37] R. Grassberger and I. Procaccia, “Measuring the Strangeness of Strange Attractors,” Physica, vol. 9, no. 1-2, pp. 189-208, 1983.
38. [38] M. Wyss and R. E. Habermann, “Precursory seismic quiescence,” PAGEOPH, vol. 126, no. 2-4, pp. 319-332, 1988.
39. [39] S. Wiemer and M. Wyss, “Seismic quiescence before the Landers (M=7.5) and Big Bear (6.5) 1992 earthquakes,” BSSA, vol. 84, no. 3, pp. 900-916, 1994.
40. [40] S. Wimer, “A software package to analyze seismicity: ZMAP,” Seismol. Res. Lett., vol. 72, no. 2, pp. 373-382, 2001.
41. [41] P. A. Reasenberg, “Second-order moment of central California seismicity, 1969-1982,” J. Geoph. Res., vol. 90, no. B7, pp. 5479-5495, 1985.
42. [42] K. Katsumata and M. Kasahara, “Precursory seismic quiescence before the 1994 Kurile Earthquake (Mw=8.3) revealed by three independent seismic catalogs,” PAGEOPH, vol. 155, pp. 43-470, 1999.
43. [43] J. D. R. Joseph, K. B. Rao and M. B. Anoop, “A study on clustered and de-clustered world-wide earthquake data using G-R recurrence law,” International Journal of Earth Sciences and Engineering, vol. 4, pp. 178-182, 2011.
44. [44] S. Pucci, D. Pantosti, M. R. Barchi and N. Palyvos, “A complex seismogenic shear zone: The Düzce segment of North Anatolian Fault (Turkey),” Earth and Planetary Science Letters, vol. 262, pp. 185-203, 2007.
45. [45] S. Öztürk, Y. Bayrak, H, Çınar, G.Ch. Koravos and T. M. Tsapanos, “A quantitative appraisal of earthquake hazard parameters computed from Gumbel I method for different regions in and around Turkey, Natural Hazards, vol. 47, pp. 471-495, 2008.
46. [46] B. Karimi, N. McQuarrie, J-S. Lin and W. Harbert, “Determining the geometry of the North Anatolian Fault East of the Marmara Sea through integrated stress modeling and remote sensing techniques,” Tectonophysics, vol. 623, pp. 14-22, 2014.
47. [47] M. Bohnhoff, P. Martínez-Garzón, F. Bulut, E. Stierle and Y. Ben-Zion, “Maximum earthquake magnitudes along different sections of the North Anatolian fault zone,” Tectonophysics, vol. 674, pp. 147-165, 2016.
48. [48] S. Öztürk, “Regional and temporal analyses of the current earthquake activity in and around the North Anatolian Fault Zone,” Bulletin for Earth Sciences, vol. 38, no. 2, pp. 193-228, 2017.
49. [49] URL-1. http://www.koeri.boun.edu.tr/sismo/2/category/basinbultenleri/, 30/03/2020.