SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS

Arzu Çilli; Kıvanç Ergen; Ercüment Akat

SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB), AIDS (Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome), measles, malaria and CCHF (Crimean-Congo Hemorrhagic Fever) are the main epidemic diseases that persist as major global health problems. Estimating the number of affected people from epidemic diseases is of importance to reduce/minimize the probable negative outcomes. Therefore applicable and appropriate mathematical modelling is very useful and necessary to analyse, forecast and prevent the evolution of the diseases. A variety of mathematical models are used to detect losses from many epidemic diseases seen in the world. Some of these are SI, SIS, SIR, MSIRS, etc. Among the models, we studied SI (Susceptible-Infective) and SIS (Susceptible-Infective-Susceptible) models to decide the best appropriate/fitting model and to predict the effects of these epidemic diseases in some countries, namely, Norway for TB, malaria for Nigeria, HIV/AIDS for Ghana, CCHF for Bulgaria and measles for Afghanistan. We showed the relative predictive power of each model and in general models were found to confirm the reliability and robustness. After the analysis of the numerical results, we concluded that the SI and SIS models are very good at predicting the number of infected individuals, sensitive to fluctuations in real data and can follow the trend of exact data. Moreover, they give results in a short time.

Keywords

References

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

-

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Arzu Çilli This is me
0000-0002-0596-3637
Türkiye

Kıvanç Ergen This is me
0000-0002-5655-5975
Türkiye

Ercüment Akat This is me
0000-0001-9267-1650
Türkiye

Publication Date

March 1, 2019

Submission Date

February 5, 2018

Acceptance Date

July 22, 2018

Published in Issue

Year 2019 Volume: 37 Number: 1

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA44JX29PE

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Çilli, A., Ergen, K., & Akat, E. (2019). SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences, 37(1), 17-23. https://izlik.org/JA44JX29PE

AMA

1.Çilli A, Ergen K, Akat E. SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS. SIGMA. 2019;37(1):17-23. https://izlik.org/JA44JX29PE

Chicago

Çilli, Arzu, Kıvanç Ergen, and Ercüment Akat. 2019. “SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS”. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 37 (1): 17-23. https://izlik.org/JA44JX29PE.

EndNote

Çilli A, Ergen K, Akat E (March 1, 2019) SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 37 1 17–23.

IEEE

[1]A. Çilli, K. Ergen, and E. Akat, “SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS”, SIGMA, vol. 37, no. 1, pp. 17–23, Mar. 2019, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA44JX29PE

ISNAD

Çilli, Arzu - Ergen, Kıvanç - Akat, Ercüment. “SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS”. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 37/1 (March 1, 2019): 17-23. https://izlik.org/JA44JX29PE.

JAMA

1.Çilli A, Ergen K, Akat E. SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS. SIGMA. 2019;37:17–23.

MLA

Çilli, Arzu, et al. “SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS”. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences, vol. 37, no. 1, Mar. 2019, pp. 17-23, https://izlik.org/JA44JX29PE.

Vancouver

1.Arzu Çilli, Kıvanç Ergen, Ercüment Akat. SOME MATHEMATICAL MODELS AND APPLICATIONS USED IN EPIDEMICS. SIGMA [Internet]. 2019 Mar. 1;37(1):17-23. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA44JX29PE