A study on the estimation of COVID-19 case with the adaptive kalman filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan

Levent Özbek

A study on the estimation of COVID-19 case with the adaptive kalman filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan

Abstract

In this paper, COVID-19 cumulative cases are estimated with AKF based on total COVID-19 cases between January-September 9, 2020 in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Turkey, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan. The cumulative covid-19 cases time-series was modeled with a stochastic dynamic linear model (DLM). The estimation performance of the models is measured by the calculation of mean square error (MSE) and coefficient of determination (R2). Ca lculated MSE an d R2 values showed that the model and AKF could be used to estimate the number of cases in these countries. In this study, firstly, the cumulative number of cases was estimated. Secondly, using these estimates number of daily cases was calculated. Thirdly, the reproduction number was obtained by using these number of daily cases. The model and estimation method used is suitable. The AKF algorithm uses only the number of cases in the last day. We propose that the model and estimation method under consideration is a convenient tool for calculating the reproduction number depending on time.

Keywords

References

The article references can be accessed from the .pdf file.

Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Computer Software, Engineering

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Levent Özbek ^* This is me
0000-0003-1018-3114
Türkiye

Publication Date

June 6, 2022

Submission Date

October 17, 2020

Acceptance Date

June 28, 2021

Published in Issue

Year 2022 Volume: 40 Number: 2

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA69US26KT

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Özbek, L. (2022). A study on the estimation of COVID-19 case with the adaptive kalman filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences, 40(2), 323-343. https://izlik.org/JA69US26KT

AMA

1.Özbek L. A study on the estimation of COVID-19 case with the adaptive kalman filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan. SIGMA. 2022;40(2):323-343. https://izlik.org/JA69US26KT

Chicago

Özbek, Levent. 2022. “A Study on the Estimation of COVID-19 Case With the Adaptive Kalman Filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan”. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 40 (2): 323-43. https://izlik.org/JA69US26KT.

EndNote

Özbek L (June 1, 2022) A study on the estimation of COVID-19 case with the adaptive kalman filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 40 2 323–343.

IEEE

[1]L. Özbek, “A study on the estimation of COVID-19 case with the adaptive kalman filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan”, SIGMA, vol. 40, no. 2, pp. 323–343, June 2022, [Online]. Available: https://izlik.org/JA69US26KT

ISNAD

Özbek, Levent. “A Study on the Estimation of COVID-19 Case With the Adaptive Kalman Filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan”. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences 40/2 (June 1, 2022): 323-343. https://izlik.org/JA69US26KT.

JAMA

1.Özbek L. A study on the estimation of COVID-19 case with the adaptive kalman filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan. SIGMA. 2022;40:323–343.

MLA

Özbek, Levent. “A Study on the Estimation of COVID-19 Case With the Adaptive Kalman Filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan”. Sigma Journal of Engineering and Natural Sciences, vol. 40, no. 2, June 2022, pp. 323-4, https://izlik.org/JA69US26KT.

Vancouver

1.Levent Özbek. A study on the estimation of COVID-19 case with the adaptive kalman filter (AKF) in USA, Germany, United Kingdom, Italy, France, Russia, Brazil, India, Türkiye, Spain, Peru, Colombia, South Africa, Argentina, Iran, Pakistan. SIGMA [Internet]. 2022 Jun. 1;40(2):323-4. Available from: https://izlik.org/JA69US26KT