Development of yield prediction model for wheat by using AquaCrop model with different nitrogen dose applications in Central Anatolia Region (semi arid) conditions

Abstract

In this study, yield prediction was made for Tosunbey and Bayraktar bread wheat varieties under rainfall conditions and 4 different fertilizer ratios with AquaCrop model, one of the plant growth models. In this experiment conducted at Haymana Ikizce Research Farm, actual field observations and model predicted grain yield, biomass, and green area coverage ratio were evaluated. Mean deviation (α), standard error (RMSE), and model efficiency coefficient (E) tests were used to determine the performance of the model. The AquaCrop model was calibrated in the first year and validated based on observational data collected in the first and second years of the experiment, respectively. Based on the results obtained, it was observed that the AquaCrop model simulated grain yield at different levels of nitrogen fertilizer applications with higher precision for Bayraktar variety. For Bayraktar variety, grain yield E = 0.93 in the first year and 0.99 in the second year for grain yield, and E = 0.83 in the first year and 0.98 in the second year for biomass, indicating excellent agreement between model and observation was found. In Tosunbey variety, first-year grain yield E=0.66 and 2nd year grain yield 0.76 were found. The 2nd year RMSE value for grain yield of Bayraktar variety was 0.266, and the 2nd year RMSE value for the grain yield of Tosunbey variety was 0.664 and found to be statistically compatible. Grain yield, biomass, and percent cover (CC) values obtained from the model were found to be highly consistent with field observations.

Keywords

• Crop simulation modelling
• AquaCrop
• Wheat
• Fertilisation
• Yield estimate

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