YOLSUZLUĞUN KAMU BORÇLARI ÜZERİNDEKİ ETKİSİ: GELİŞMİŞ VE GELİŞMEKTE OLAN ÜLKELER ÜZERİNE AMPİRİK BİR İNCELEME

Year 2024, Issue: 100, 233 - 248

Serhat Gözen , Ersin Nail Sağdıç , Fazlı Yıldız

https://doi.org/10.17753/sosekev.1490043

Abstract

Kamu borçlarının sürdürülebilirliği ve etkin kamu borç yönetimi hem gelişmekte olan ülkeler hem de gelişmiş ülkeler için büyük önem arz etmektedir. Bu açıdan değerlendirildiğinde kamu borçları ülkeler için fırsatları ve riskleri beraberinde barındırmaktadır. Kamu borçlarını ekonomide çeşitli ekonomik faktörler doğrudan etkilemektedir. Fakat günümüzde ampirik çalışmalar yolsuzluk gibi faktörlerin de kamu borçlarını doğrudan etkilediğini göstermektedir. Bu çalışmada gelişmiş ve gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yolsuzluğun kamu borçları üzerindeki etkisi panel veri yöntemiyle araştırılmıştır. Çalışma, 2000-2020 dönemini kapsamaktadır. Analiz kısmında serilerin durağanlıkları, yatay kesit bağımlılıkları belirlendikten sonra seriler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişki panel eşbütünleşme testleri ile tespit edilmiştir. Eşbütünleşme ilişkisi Westerlund (2008) Durbin Hausman Panel Testi, uzun dönemli eşbütünleşme katsayıları ise Panel Güçlendirilmiş Ortalama Grup Etkisi (AMG) yöntemiyle tahmin edilmiştir. Analiz sonuçlarına göre gelişmiş ülkelerde yolsuzluk algılama düzeyinin kamu borç yükü üzerindeki etkisinin anlamsız olduğu, tam aksine gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yolsuzluk algılama düzeyindeki %1 artışın kamu borç yükünü %0,09 düzeyinde azalttığı tespit edilmiştir. Bunun yanında hem gelişmiş ve hem de gelişmekte olan ülkelerde ekonomik büyüme, ticari dışa açıklık ve kamu kesimi borçlanma gereğinin kamu borç yükü üzerinde etkili olduğu belirlenmiştir. Elde edilen bu sonuçlar özellikle gelişmekte olan ülkelerde yolsuzluk düzeyini azaltacak politikaların yürütülmesi gerektiğini göstermektedir.

Keywords

Kamu borçları, Yolsuzluk, Panel veri analizi

The Impact of Corruption on Public Debt: An Empirical Investigation on Developed and Developing Countries

Abstract

The sustainability of public debt and effective public debt management are of great importance for both developing and developed countries. From this point of view, public debts bring opportunities and risks for countries. Public debt is directly affected by various economic factors in the economy. However, empirical studies show that factors such as corruption also directly affect public debt. This study investigates the effect of corruption on public debt in developed and developing countries by panel data method. The analysis covers the period from 2000 to 2020. After determining the stationarity levels and cross-sectional dependence of the series in the analysis part, the long-run relationship between the series was determined by panel cointegration tests. The cointegration relationship between the variables was estimated by Westerlund (2008) Durbin Hausman Panel Test, and the cointegration coefficients were estimated by the Augmented Mean Group (AMG) method. The results of the analyses indicate that the effect of corruption perception on public debt burden in developed countries is statistically insignificant. On the contrary, 1% increase in corruption perception in developing countries increased the public debt burden by 0.09% decrease. Furthermore, economic growth, trade openness and public sector borrowing requirements are found to be effective on public debt burden in both developed and developing countries. These results suggest that policies to reduce the level of corruption should be implemented, particularly in developing countries.

Keywords

Public debt, Corruption, Panel data analysis

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