COVİD-19 PANDEMİSİNİN GÖÇMEN İSTİHDAMINA ETKİSİ: SEÇİLMİŞ OECD ÜLKELERİ ÜZERİNE BİR PANEL VERİ ANALİZİ

Öz

31 Aralık 2019 tarihinde Çin’in Wuhan kentinde ortaya çıkan COVİD-19 virüsünün hızla tüm dünyaya yayılması sonucunda 11 Mart 2020 tarihinde Dünya Sağlık Örgütü (DSÖ) tarafından pandemi ilân edilmiştir. Pandeminin ekonomideki ilk etkileri istihdam piyasasına yönelik olmuş ve Büyük Buhran'dan bu yana yaşanan en kötü istihdam krizlerinden birini tetiklemiştir. Bu çalışmanın ilgi alanı da gelişmiş ülkelerde COVİD-19 salgını dolayısıyla yaşanan sürecin göçmen istihdamına yönelik etkileridir. Bu bağlamda bu çalışmanın amacı, COVİD-19 pandemisinin göçmen istihdamını nasıl etkilediğini ampirik olarak araştırmaktır. Bu amaca yönelik olarak çalışmada, 17 OECD ülke ekonomisinin 2020q1-2021q4 dönemi üçer aylık verileriyle hata düzeltme modeline dayalı Westerlund (2007) eşbütünleşme analizi gerçekleştirilmiştir. Analiz sonuçları itibarıyla eşbütünleşme ilişkisi tespit edilmiş ve daha sonra AMG tahmincisiyle uzun dönem esneklikler hesaplanmıştır. Buna göre COVİD-19 vakaları %1 oranında arttığında göçmen istihdamı %0,03 oranında azalmaktadır. Çalışmada ayrıca panel VECM nedensellik analizi gerçekleştirilmiş ve sonucunda COVİD-19 vakaları ile göçmen istihdamı arasında çift yönlü nedensellik ilişkisi tespit edilmiştir.

Anahtar Kelimeler

• COVİD-19
• pandemi
• göçmen istihdamı
• OECD

THE IMPACT OF THE COVID-19 PANDEMIC ON MIGRANT EMPLOYMENT: A PANEL DATA ANALYSIS ON CHOSEN OECD COUNTRİES

Abstract

March 11, 2020, the World Health Organization (WHO) declared a pandemic as a result of the rapid spread of the COVID-19 virus, which appeared in Wuhan, China, on December 31, 2019, to the whole world. The first effects of the pandemic on the economy were aimed at the employment market and triggered one of the worst employment crises since the Great Depression. The field of interest of this study is the effects of the process experienced due to the COVID-19 pandemic in developed countries on migrant employment. In this context, the aim of this study is to empirically investigate how the COVID-19 pandemic affects migrant employment. For this purpose, Westerlund (2007) cointegration analysis was carried out with 17 OECD countries' data for the period 2020q1-2021q4. According to the results of the analysis, the cointegration relationship was determined and then long-term flexibilities were calculated with the AMG estimator. Accordingly, when COVID-19 cases increase by 1%, migrant employment decreases by 0.03%. In the study, panel VECM causality analysis was also performed and as a result, a bidirectional causality relationship was found between COVID-19 cases and migrant employment.

Keywords

• COVID-19
• Pandemic
• Migrant Employment
• OECD

Kaynakça

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