TÜRKİYE’DE DEĞİŞEN DOĞURGANLIK TERCİHLERİ: PARİTEYE GÖRE ANALİZLER

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye Nüfus ve Sağlık Araştırmaları (TNSA) verilerini kullanarak 1993-2018 dönemi için kadınların doğurganlık idealleri ve niyetlerindeki ve doğurganlık farkındaki değişimleri hem makro hem mikro düzeyde incelemek ve 2018 TNSA verisi kullanılarak halen evli kadınların doğurganlık niyetlerini, parite yani sahip olunan çocuk sayısına göre hem betimsel hem de lojistik regresyon yöntemiyle incelemektir. Bulgulara göre 1993-2018 arası 25 yıllık dönemde ideal çocuk sayısı artarken, istenilen çocuk sayısı azalmıştır. Doğurganlık farkı geleneksel TDH kullanıldığında pozitif olmasına rağmen, düzeltilmiş TDH kullanıldığında negatif olmaktadır, yani gerçekleşen doğurganlık, ideal veya istenilen çocuk sayısına kıyasla daha fazladır. Yakın zamanda Türkiye’de pronatalizm seviyesinde bir artış olmuştur, ancak bunun niyet ve davranışlara yansıdığı sonucuna varmak yanlış olacaktır. Tüm pariteleri kapsayan çok değişkenli bulgularımız ise yaş ve çocukla ilgili değişkenlerin kadınların çocuk sahibi olma isteğinin önemli belirleyicileri olduğunu göstermiştir. Ayrıca bölge, anadil ve gebeliği önleyici yöntem kullanımı önemli belirleyicilerdir. Sosyoekonomik değişkenler ise çocuk sahibi olma niyeti ile anlamlı olarak ilişkili bulunmamıştır. Bu değişkenlerin bazıları birinci ve ikinci doğuma geçiş niyetinde anlamlı olarak bulunmuştur.

Keywords

• Doğurganlık
• İdeal doğurganlık
• İstenilen doğurganlık
• Doğurganlık farkı
• Toplam doğurganlık hızı
• Zamanlamaya göre düzeltilmiş toplam doğurganlık hızı
• Türkiye
• TNSA

CHANGING FERTILITY PREFERENCES IN TÜRKİYE: ANALYSES BY PARITY

Abstract

The aim of this study is to examine changes in fertility ideals and intentions of women and fertility gap at both macro and micro level for the 1993-2018 period using data of Turkey Demographic and Health Surveys (TDHS), and to analyze fertility intentions of currently married women by parity, i.e. number of children ever born, using 2018 TDHS data employing descriptive and logistic regression methods. According to the findings, while ideal number of children increased in the 25-year period, intended number of children decreased. Although fertility gap is positive when using conventional TFR, it is negative when adjusted TFR is used, meaning actual fertility is greater than ideal or intended number of children. There has been an increase in the level of pronatalism in Türkiye recently, but it would be wrong to conclude that this is reflected in intentions and behaviors. Our multivariate findings covering all parities show that age and child-related variables are important determinants of women's fertility intention. Additionally, region, mother tongue and use of contraceptive methods are important. Socioeconomic variables, however, were not found to be significantly associated with birth intention. Some of these were found to be significant in intention for progression to first- and second-births.

Keywords

• Fertility
• Ideal fertility
• Intended fertility
• Fertility gap
• Total fertility rate
• Tempo adjusted total fertility rate
• Türkiye
• TDHS

Thanks

Authors thank Dr. Kryštof Zeman, Dr. Faruk Keskin and Dr. Pelin Çağatay for their assistance with the calculation of adjusted total fertility rates. Authors also thank Dr. Zehra Yayla Enfiyeci for her syntax to construct some variables.

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