İİT Ülkelerinde Doğurganlık ve Kadın İşgücüne Katılım: Bir Dinamik Panel Analizi

Abstract

Amaç - Bu çalışma, İİT ülkelerinde kadınların işgücüne düşük katılımının demografik kısıtlar mı yoksa yapısal süreklilikler mi tarafından belirlendiğini ortaya koymak amacıyla, doğurganlık ile kadın istihdamı arasındaki ilişkiyi incelemektedir. Yöntem - 2003-2018 dönemini kapsayan 14 İİT ülkesinin dengeli panel veri seti, yatay kesit bağımlılığını ve dinamik süreçleri dikkate almak amacıyla Dinamik Ortak İlişkili Etkiler (DCCE) ve Driscoll-Kraay tahmincileri kullanılarak analiz edilmiştir. Bulgular - Sonuçlar güçlü bir geçmişe bağımlılık olduğunu göstermektedir. Kadınların işgücüne katılımı, kısa vadeli değişimlerden ziyade büyük ölçüde tarihsel kalıplar tarafından belirlenmektedir. Tarihsel atalet kontrol edildiğinde, statik modellerde gözlemlenen negatif doğurganlık-istihdam ilişkisi dinamik analizlerde ortadan kalkmaktadır. Ayrıca petrol rantlarının kadın işgücüne katılım üzerinde gecikmeli bir negatif etki yarattığı tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç - Kadınların katılımı, kısa vadeli demografik faktörlerden ziyade yapısal geçmiş tarafından belirlenmektedir. Politikalar, sadece doğurganlığı azaltmaya odaklanmak yerine, işgücü piyasasındaki ataleti gidermeye yönelik yapısal reformlara öncelik vermelidir. Anahtar Kelimerler: Kadın İşgücüne Katılım, Doğurganlık, İİT Ülkeleri, DCCE. JEL Kodları: J130, J160

Keywords

• Kadın İşgücüne Katılım
• Doğurganlık
• İİT Ülkeleri
• DCCE

Fertility and Female Labour Force Participation in OIC Countries: A Dynamic Panel Analysis

Abstract

Purpose - This study examines the fertility-female employment nexus in OIC countries to determine whether low participation is driven by demographic constraints or structural persistence. Methodology - A balanced panel of 14 OIC countries (2003-2018) was analyzed using Dynamic Common Correlated Effects (DCCE) and Driscoll-Kraay estimators to account for cross-sectional dependence and dynamics. Findings - The results show strong path dependence. Female labor force participation is largely driven by historical patterns rather than short-term changes. The negative fertility-employment link observed in static models disappears in dynamic analyses once historical inertia is accounted for. Oil rents also exert a delayed negative effect on female labor force participation. Conclusions - Female participation is determined by structural history rather than short-term demographics. Policies should prioritize structural reforms addressing labour market inertia over solely fertility reduction. Keywords: Female Labour Force Participation, Fertility, OIC Countries, DCCE. JEL Codes: J130, J160

Keywords

• Female Labour Force Participation
• Fertility
• OIC Countries
• DCCE

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