AB Ortak Tarım Politikasının Evrimi Perspektifinden Etki Değerlendirme Modelleri Üzerine Bir Sentez

Abstract

Özet Amaç: Bu makale, mevcut niceliksel etki değerlendirme metodolojilerinin kapsamlı bir analizini sunmayı, veri gereklilikleri açısından güçlü ve zayıf yönlerini ve ayrıca sosyal, ekonomik ve çevresel faktörleri dikkate alma noktasındaki kapasitelerini karşılaştırmalı olarak ortaya koymayı amaçlamaktadır. Ayrıca yeni nesil tarımsal etki değerlendirme modellerinin bilgi teknolojisi, iletişim araçları ve büyük veri analitiğindeki gelişmeleri de içermelerinin gerekliliğini vurgulamaktadır. Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Bu incelemede birbirinden farklı denge modelleri "tarımsal modelleme platformları" olarak adlandırılmış olup söz konusu modeller metodolojik yaklaşımlarına göre iki kategoriye ayrılmıştır Birinci kategori, genel ve kısmi denge tipi modellerin yanı sıra sektör modellerini de içeren bir "sistem yaklaşımı"nı benimseyen modelleri içermektedir. İkici kategori ise "Ajan tabanlı yaklaşım" olarak adlandırılmıştır. Dolayısıyla bu inceleme özellikle çiftlik-temsili modellerin çiftlik-tabanlı modellerle karşılaştırılması ile ilgilidir. Bulgular: Çalışma, analiz düzeyi, çevresel etki ve tarım ve çevre arasındaki ilişki gibi faktörleri dikkate alarak modelleme çalışmalarında metodoloji ve kriterlerin önemini vurgulamaktadır. Doğru modelleme ölçeğini ve aracını seçmenin önceden doğru araştırma sorularını sormayı gerektirdiği çalışmanın önemli bir bulgusudur. Özgünlük/Değer: Bu çalışmada, giderek daha fazla ekolojik ve toplumsal sorunlarla karşı karşıya kalan tarım sektöründe uygulanan politikaların etki analizlerinin yapılmasına olanak sağlayan genel ve kısmi denge modelleri ile söz konusu sorunların da modellere dahil edilmesine olanak sağlayan Ajan Tabanlı Modeller (ABM), karşılaştırılması ve politika yapıcılara yol göstermek amacıyla birbirlerine karşı avantajları/dezavantajlarının ortaya konulması amaçlanmıştır. Bu karşılaştırmanın özellikle Avrupa Ortak Tarım Politikası'nın (CAP) kuruluşundan bu yana geçirdiği evrim dikkate alınarak ortaya konuluyor olması çalışmanın özgünlüğüdür.

Keywords

• Denge Modelleri
• Ajan Temelli Modeller
• Tarımsal Politika Analizi
• Ortak Tarım Politikası

A Synthesis on Impact Assessment Models from the Perspective of Evolution of the EU Common Agricultural Policy

Abstract

Purpose: This paper aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the current quantitative impact assessment methodologies, examining their strengths and weaknesses in terms of data requirements, as well as their consideration of social, economic, and environmental factors. Furthermore, it aims to elucidate the necessity for new-generation agricultural impact assessment models to incorporate advancements in information technology, communication tools, and big data analytics. Design/Methodology/Approach: In this review, the term "agricultural modelling platforms" is used to denote different equilibrium models and these models are divided into two categories according on their methodological approaches. The first category adopts a "systems approach," which includes general and partial equilibrium type models, as well as sector models. The "agent-based approach" is used by the second category. This review, thus, is primarily concerned with contrasting farm-representative models with farm-based models. Findings: The study emphasizes the importance of methodology and criteria in modelling exercises, considering factors like analysis level, environmental impact, and relationship between agriculture and the environment. It suggests that selecting the right modelling scale and tool requires asking the right research questions in advance. Originality/Value: In this study, general and partial equilibrium models, which allow impact analysis of policies implemented in the agricultural sector, which is increasingly faced with ecological and social problems, and Agent Based Models (ABM), which allow the problems in question to be included in the models, are compared and provided guidance to policy makers. It is aimed to reveal their advantages/disadvantages against each other. The originality of this study is that this comparison is made by taking into account the evolution of the European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) since its establishment.

Keywords

• Equilibrium Models
• Agent-Based Models
• Agricultural Policy Analysis
• Common Agricultural Policy

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