Türkiye’de tarımsal kredi, petrol fiyatı, enflasyon ve döviz kurunun tarımsal istihdama etkisi: ARDL yaklaşımından kanıtlar

Abstract

Amaç: Bu araştırma, 2005: Q1-2024: Q3 çeyrek dönemi verileri ile Türkiye'de tarımsal kredi, petrol fiyatı, enflasyon ve döviz kurunun tarımsal istihdam üzerindeki etkilerini analiz etmeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırma modelinde tarımsal katma değer ise kontrol değişken olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Araştırma değişkenlerinin durağanlık özellikleri ADF ve Fourier ADF birim kök testleri ile belirlenmiştir. Araştırmada kurulan modelde ise kısa ve uzun dönemli ilişkiler ARDL sınır test yaklaşımı ile ele alınmıştır. Bulgular: Uzun dönemde tarımsal kredi, enflasyon ve döviz kurunun tarımsal istihdamı negatif etkilediği, petrol fiyatı ise istihdama sınırlı pozitif katkı sağladığı görülmüştür. Kısa vadede ise tarımsal kredi ve döviz kurunun gecikmeli değerlerinin istihdam üzerinde anlamlı etkiler yarattığı gözlemlenmiştir. Özgünlük/Değer: Türkiye örnekleminde tarımsal istihdam üzerinde tarımsal kredi, petrol fiyatı, enflasyon ve döviz kurunun etkilerini bütüncül bir kapsamda ele alan bir araştırmaya erişilememesi, bu araştırmanın kaleme alınmasında temel motivasyon olmuştur. Bu araştırmadan elde edilen sonuçlar çerçevesinde tarımsal istihdamın sürdürülebilirliğine yönelik sunulan politika önerileri ile literatüre önemli bir katkı sağlandığı düşünülmektedir.

Keywords

• ARDL sınır testi
• döviz kuru
• enflasyon
• petrol fiyatı
• tarımsal istihdam
• tarımsal kredi.

The effects of agricultural credit, oil price, inflation and exchange rate on agricultural employment in Türkiye: Evidence from ARDL approach

Abstract

Purpose: This research aims to analyze the effects of agricultural credit, oil prices, inflation and exchange rate on agricultural employment in Türkiye with quarterly data for the period 2005:Q1-2024:Q3. In the research model, agricultural value added is considered as a control variable. Design/Methodology/Approach: The stationarity properties of the research variables were determined by ADF and Fourier ADF unit root tests. In the model established in the research, short- and long-term relationships are analyzed by ARDL bounds test approach. Findings: In the long run, increases in agricultural credit, inflation and exchange rates have a negative impact on agricultural employment, while increases in oil prices have a limited positive contribution to employment. In the short run, lagged values of agricultural credit and exchange rates have significant effects on employment. Originality/Value: The lack of research on the effects of agricultural credit, oil price, inflation, and exchange rate on agricultural employment in Türkiye has been the main motivation for writing this study within the framework of the results obtained from this research, it is believed that an important contribution to literature has been made with the policy recommendations for the sustainability of agricultural employment.

Keywords

• ARDL bound test
• exchange rate
• inflation
• oil price
• agricultural employment
• agricultural credit.

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