Convergence of Agricultural Sector, Non-Agricultural Sector, Public Expenditures and Migration in Turkey: A Spatial Panel Approach

Abstract

Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the spatial dimensions of the convergence process in the agricultural and non-agricultural sectors, public expenditures, and migration in 81 provinces of Turkey for the 2008-2018 period.

Design/methodology/approach: For this purpose, spatial panel data estimation methodology with Driscoll-Kraay estimator is used to capture the effect of space, which is a necessary condition to prevent biased estimates of convergence.

Findings: It is clear that structural problems in the agricultural sector restrict interaction with the non-agricultural sector in the provinces and this limits the convergence effect on the agricultural sector. Limited convergence in agricultural sector causes continued income gap between rich and poor provinces in Turkey. In addition to this, migration from the agricultural sector to the non-agricultural sector has an impact on the convergence of both sectors between provinces. Moreover, public expenditures appears to have no direct, indirect or total effect on both agriculture and non-agricultural sectors.

Originality/value: To the best of our knowledge, this study is the first to show the spatial dimensions of convergence at sectoral level for provinces of Turkey with relation to public expenditures and migration across agricultural and non-agricultural sectors.

Keywords

• Convergence Analysis
• Agricultural Development
• Spatial Analysis

Türkiye'de Tarım ve Tarım Dışı Sektörlerde Yakınsama, Kamu Harcamaları ve Göç: Mekansal Panel Veri Yaklaşımı

Abstract

Amaç: Bu çalışmada Türkiye’de 81 il bazında 2008-2018 yılları arası verileri kullanılarak tarım ve tarımdışı sektörler ile kamu harcamaları ve göç arasındaki ilişkilerin incelenmesi amaçlanmaktadır.

Tasarım/metodoloji/yaklaşım: Yakınsama analizine ilişkin sapmasız tahminciler elde edebilmek için Driscoll-Kraay tahmincisiyle mekansal panel veri analizi yöntemi kullanılmıştır.

Bulgular: Araştırma sonuçları, tarım sektöründeki yapısal problemler, tarım dışı sektörler ile tarım sektörünün etkileşimini iller bazında kısıtladığını ve bu durumun tarım sektöründeki yakınsamayı sınırlandırdırğını ortaya koymaktadır. Tarımdaki sınırlı yakınsama zengin ve fakir iller arasındaki gelir farklılığının devam etmesine neden olmaktadır. Bunun yanında araştıama sonuçları, tarım sektöründen tarım dışı sektörlere yönelik göç olgusu iller arasında sektörler bazında yakınsama üzerinde etkili olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır. Ayrıca kamu harcamalarının tarım ve tarım dışı sektörler üzerindeki etkisinin istatistiksel olarak anlamlı olmadığı tespit edilmiştir.

Özgünlük/değer: Bu çalışmanın özgünlüğü, Türkiye’de iller bazında sektörel yakınsamanın mekansal boyutları ve bunun göç ve kamu harcamaları ile ilişkisinin ilk defa ele alınmasıdır.

Keywords

• Yakınsama analizi
• tarımsal büyüme
• mekansal analiz

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