Ayçiçeğinde Üretim ve Fiyat Arasındaki İlişkinin Koyck Modeli ile Analizi
Year 2023,
Volume: 29 Issue: 1, 57 - 64, 29.06.2023
Umutcan Turğut
,
Duran Güler
,
Sait Engindeniz
Abstract
Amaç: Türkiye'de ayçiçeği üretimi ve fiyatı arasındaki ilişkinin Koyck modeli ile açıklanması amaçlanmaktadır.
Tasarım/Metodoloji/Yaklaşım: Ayçiçeği üretimi ve fiyatı arasındaki ilişkiyi ortaya koymak için Dağıtılmış Gecikmeli Koyck Modeli uygulanmıştır. Bu aşamada 2000-2020 dönemine (21 yıl) ait veriler kullanılmıştır. Gecikmesi dağıtılmış modellerdeki sakıncaları gidermek için Koyck tarafından bir model geliştirilmiştir. Koyck modelinde bağımsız değişken gecikmelerinin bağımlı değişkeni belirli bir ağırlıkla etkilediği ve gecikme ağırlıklarının geometrik olarak azaldığı varsayımından hareketle, model indirgenmiş hale getirilerek regresyon denklemi tahmin edilmektedir.
Bulgular: Cari yılda ayçiçeği fiyatındaki %10'luk artışın üretim miktarını bir yıl sonra %2.06, iki yıl sonra ise %1.22 artırması beklenmektedir. Sonuçlar, fiyatların gecikmeli değerlerindeki değişimin üretim üzerinde olumlu bir etkiye sahip olduğunu ve bu etkinin giderek azaldığını göstermektedir.
Özgünlük/Değer: Ayçiçeği üretimi de piyasadaki ortalama fiyatın gecikmeli değerinden etkilenmektedir. Koyck modeli bu gecikmeli değerleri ortaya çıkarmak için uygun bir modeldir. Fiyat değişkeninin üretim açısından ardışık dönemlerdeki gecikmeli etkilerini ölçmek için kullanılan bu model sayesinde ayçiçeği üretimi için uygulanabilecek etkin politikalara ışık tutulabilecektir.
References
- Abdikoğlu, D.İ. and Unakıtan, G. (2014). Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between
Watermelon Production and Watermelon Price in Turkey. Procceeding of XI. National
Agricultural Economics Congress, 3-5 September 2014, Samsun, p. 854-859.
- Abdikoğlu, D.İ. and Unakıtan, G. (2017). Supply Response of Sunflower in Turkey.
International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Management and Informatics, 3(3):224-
232.
- Ağazade, S. (2021). Analysis of the Relationship Between Cotton Production and Prices by
Using Koyck Approach in Turkey. Journal of Tekirdağ Agricultural Faculty, 18(3): 386-
399.
- Akgül, S. and Yıldız, Ş. (2016). Analysis of Wheat Production and Price Relationship in
Yozgat with Koyck Model. Proceeding of International Bozok Symposium, 5-7 May 2016,
Yozgat, p.178-188.
- Alt, F. (1942). Distributed Lags. Econometrica, 10: 113-128.
- Altıntop, M. and Gıdık, B. (2019). Development of Sunflower, Soybean Safflower and
Rapeseed Production in Turkey. Bayburt University Journal of Science, 2(2): 307-315.
- Arıoğlu, H. (2016). Oil Seeds and Crude Oil Production in Turkey, Problems and Solutions.
Journal of Field Crops Central Research Institute, 25(Special Issue 2): 357-368.
- Aydın Can, B., Tomar, O., and Yılmaz, A.M. (2021). Evaluation of Sunflower Oil in terms of
Food Security and Self-Sufficiency in Turkey and European Union. European Journal of
Science and Technology, 31(Special Issue 1): 640-654.
- Berk, A. (2017). The Analysis of Relationship between Sunflower Production and Its Price
by Using Koyck Model in Turkey. Custos e Agronegócio Online, 13(4): 42-53.
- Çelik, Ş. (2014). The Analysis of Production-Price Relation in Hazelnuts Shelled Production
Using Koyck Model of Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 1(4):
524-530.
- Çelik, Ş. (2015). Analysis of Ship Milk Production and Price Relationship by Koyck and
Almon Models: A Turkey Case. Journal of Academic Perspective, 50: 137-149.
- Çetinkaya, Ş. (2012). Econometric Analysis of Last Ten Years Wheat Production Quantity-
Price Relation of Turkey: Koyck - Almon Technique. Journal of the Human and Social
Science Researches, 1(4): 52-66.
- Çobanoğlu, F. (2010). The Analysis of the Relation between Production and Price in
Strawberry with Koyck and Almon Models. Proceeding of IX. National Agricultural
Economics Congress, 22-24 September 2010, Şanlıurfa. p.72-79.
- Dikmen, N. (2006). The Relationship between Koyck-Almon Approach and Tobacco
Production and Price. Journal of Social Sciences Institute of Çukurova University, 15(2):
153-168.
- Doğan, H.G. (2018). The Effects on Selected Some Agricultural Crops of Deficiency
Payment Supports in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and
Technology, 6(10): 1455-1462.
- Doğan, H.G., Gürler, A.Z., Ayyıldız, B., and Şimşek, E. (2014). An Analytical Evaluation of
Production-Price Relation in Potato Production Using Koyck Approach (The Case of TR
71 Region). Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, 2(1): 42-46.
- Erdal, G. (2006). The Analysis of the Relation between Production and Price in Agricultural
Products with Koyck Model (Tomato Case). Journal of Faculty of Agriculture of
Gaziosmanpaşa University, 23(2): 17-24.
- Erdal, G. and Erdal, H. (2008). The Interaction between Production and Prices for Dry Onion.
Journal of Faculty of Agriculture of Gaziosmanpaşa University, 25(1): 33-39.
- FAOSTAT (2022). Crop Production and Price Statistics, https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data
Access: 23.07.2022.
- Gujarati, D. (2001). Basic Econometrics (Translated by G.G. Şenesen and Ü. Şenesen),
Literature Publications, Istanbul.
- Güler, D., Saner, G., and Naseri, Z. (2017). Forecasting of Import Quantities of Oil Seed
Plants by Arima and Neural Networks Methods. Balkan and Near Eastern Journal of Social
Sciences, 3(1): 60-70.
- Gündüz, O. (2021). Why the Price of Sunflower Oil is Increasing in Turkey? Dynamic
Shortand Long-Term Analysis. Journal of Gaziosmanpasa Scientific Research, 10(1): 30-
48.
- Güriş, S., Güriş, B., and Çağlayan, E. (2017). Basic Econometrics with Eviews. Der
Publications, Istanbul.
- Hüsnüoğlu, H. (2018). The Relationship between Hazelnut Production and Prices in Turkey:
ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. Social Sciences Research Journal, 7(4): 24-41.
- Kadakoğlu, B. and Karlı, B. (2019). Oilseeds Production and Foreign Trade in Turkey.
Journal of Akademic Social Sciences, 96: 324-341.
- Kadakoğlu, B. and Yılmaz, H. (2022). Analysis of the Effects on Sunflower Production of
Agricultural Support Policies Implemented in Turkey, Turkish Journal of Agricultural
Economics, 28(1):89-98.
- Kaya, Y. (2018). Edirne’de Ayçiçeği ve Önemi. Edirne Tarım ve Hayvancılık Dergisi, 2018:
12.
- Kılıçbay, A. (1983). Applied Econometrics. Filiz Publications, Istanbul.
- Kıllı, F. and Beycioğlu, T. (2019). Oil Seeds and Crude Oil Production in the World and
Turkey, Problems of Oilseeds Production in Turkey. International Journal of Anatolia
Agricultural Engineering, 2019 (Special Issue 1): 17-33.
- Konyalı, S. (2017). Sunflower Production, Consumption, Foreign Trade and Agricultural
Policies in Turkey. Social Sciences Research Journal, 5(4):11-19.
- Koyck, L.M. (1954). Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis. Amsterdam: North-Holland
Publishing Company.
- Kutlar, A. (2007). Introduction to Econometrics, Nobel Publications Ankara.
- MAF (2022). Agricultural Products Markets-Sunflower, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/tepge/Menu/27/Tarim-Urunleri-Piyasalari, Access:
23.07.2022.
- Meral, Ü.B. (2019). An Overview of Importance and Production of Sunflower (Helianthus
annuus L.,). International Journal of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, 2(2): 58-71.
- Özbay, N. and Çelik, Ş. (2016). Investigation by Almon Lag Model of Production and Price
Relationships in Watermelon Production in Turkey. KSU Journal of Agriculture and
Nature, 19(2): 141-146.
- Özçelik, A. and Özer, O.O. (2006). Analysis of Correlation of Wheat Production and Prices
with Koyck Models in Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 12(4): 333-339.
- Özsayın, D. (2017). Investigation of Production and Price Relationship in Cow Milk
Production by Koyck Model Approach. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and
Technology, 5(6): 681-686.
- Özüdoğru, T. Miran, B. Taşkaya Top, B. and Uçum, İ. (2015). Effect of Difference Payment
Supports in Sunflower and Soybean Production. Institute of Agricultural Economics and
Policy Development Publications No.262, Ankara, p.168.
- Semerci, A. (2013). The Effects of Agrcultural Subsdes on Sunflower Cultvaton and Farmers'
Income: Evdence From Turkey. Pakstan Journal of Agrcultural Scences, 50(1): 139-145.
- Semerci, A. and Durmuş, E. (2021). Analysis of Oily Sunflower Production in Turkey.
Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, 9(1): 56-62.
- Semerci, A., Kaya, Y., Şahin, İ. and Çıtak, N. (2012). The Effect of Subsidizing Policy in Oil
Crops Production over Sunflower Planted Areas and Producer Welfare in Turkey. Selcuk
Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 26 (2): 55-62.
- Shrestha, M.B. and Bhatta, G.R. (2018). Selecting Appropriate Methodological Framework
for Time Series Data Analysis. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 4(2): 71-89.
- Taşkaya Top, B. and Özüdoğru, T. (2016). Factors that Affect Preferences of Support Policies
for Sunflower in Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research; 2(2): 1-10.
- Tinbergen, J. (1949). Long Term Foreign Trade Elasticities. Macroeconomica, 1: 174-185.
- TURKSTAT (2022). Crop Production and Price Statistics. https://www.tuik.gov.tr/, Access:
23.05.2022.
- Tüfekçi, Ş. (2019). Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) Plant, Ereğli Commodity Exchange,
p.1-15.
- Türkekul, B., Abay, C., Gürer, B., Ören, N. and Özalp, B. (2016). The Impact of Turkish
Agricultural Policy on Competitiveness of Oilseed Sunflower in Western Marmara Region,
Turkey, Proceeding of 27th International Scientific-Expert Congress of Agriculture and
Food Industry, 26 - 28 Eylül 2016, Bursa-Turkey, p.1-8.
- USDA (2022). Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/oilseeds-
world-markets-and-trade, Access: 20.05.2022.
- Yurdakul, F. (1998). Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Cotton Production
and Cotton Prices: Koyck and Almon Approach. Journal of Cukurova University Faculty
of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 8 (1): 343-351.
- Yüksek, E. (2019). Economic Analysis of Oil Sunflower Production Activities in Adana.
Master Thesis, Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University Institute of Science and
Technology, Kahramanmaraş.
The Analysis of the Relation between Production and Price of Sunflower by Koyck Model
Year 2023,
Volume: 29 Issue: 1, 57 - 64, 29.06.2023
Umutcan Turğut
,
Duran Güler
,
Sait Engindeniz
Abstract
Purpose: it is aimed to explain the relationship between sunflower production and price in Turkey with the Koyck model.
Design/Methodology/Approach: Distributed Lagged Koyck Model was applied to reveal the relationship between sunflower production and price. At this stage, data for the period 2000-2020 (21 years) were used. A model was developed by Koyck in order to eliminate drawbacks in distributed lag models. Based on the assumption that the independent variable lags affect the dependent variable with a certain weight and that the lag weights decrease geometrically in the Koyck model, the regression equation is estimated by making the model reduced.
Findings: The 10% increase in the sunflower price in the current year is expected to increase the production amount one year later by 2.06% and the production amount two years later by 1.22%. The results show that the change in the lagged values of prices has a positive effect on production and this effect is gradually decreasing.
Originality/Value: Sunflower production is also affected by the lagged value of the average price in the market. The Koyck model is a suitable model to reveal these lagged values. Thanks to this model, which is used to measure the lagged effects of the price variable in successive periods in terms of production, it will be able to shed light on the effective policies that can be applied for sunflower production.
References
- Abdikoğlu, D.İ. and Unakıtan, G. (2014). Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between
Watermelon Production and Watermelon Price in Turkey. Procceeding of XI. National
Agricultural Economics Congress, 3-5 September 2014, Samsun, p. 854-859.
- Abdikoğlu, D.İ. and Unakıtan, G. (2017). Supply Response of Sunflower in Turkey.
International Journal of Sustainable Agricultural Management and Informatics, 3(3):224-
232.
- Ağazade, S. (2021). Analysis of the Relationship Between Cotton Production and Prices by
Using Koyck Approach in Turkey. Journal of Tekirdağ Agricultural Faculty, 18(3): 386-
399.
- Akgül, S. and Yıldız, Ş. (2016). Analysis of Wheat Production and Price Relationship in
Yozgat with Koyck Model. Proceeding of International Bozok Symposium, 5-7 May 2016,
Yozgat, p.178-188.
- Alt, F. (1942). Distributed Lags. Econometrica, 10: 113-128.
- Altıntop, M. and Gıdık, B. (2019). Development of Sunflower, Soybean Safflower and
Rapeseed Production in Turkey. Bayburt University Journal of Science, 2(2): 307-315.
- Arıoğlu, H. (2016). Oil Seeds and Crude Oil Production in Turkey, Problems and Solutions.
Journal of Field Crops Central Research Institute, 25(Special Issue 2): 357-368.
- Aydın Can, B., Tomar, O., and Yılmaz, A.M. (2021). Evaluation of Sunflower Oil in terms of
Food Security and Self-Sufficiency in Turkey and European Union. European Journal of
Science and Technology, 31(Special Issue 1): 640-654.
- Berk, A. (2017). The Analysis of Relationship between Sunflower Production and Its Price
by Using Koyck Model in Turkey. Custos e Agronegócio Online, 13(4): 42-53.
- Çelik, Ş. (2014). The Analysis of Production-Price Relation in Hazelnuts Shelled Production
Using Koyck Model of Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agricultural and Natural Sciences, 1(4):
524-530.
- Çelik, Ş. (2015). Analysis of Ship Milk Production and Price Relationship by Koyck and
Almon Models: A Turkey Case. Journal of Academic Perspective, 50: 137-149.
- Çetinkaya, Ş. (2012). Econometric Analysis of Last Ten Years Wheat Production Quantity-
Price Relation of Turkey: Koyck - Almon Technique. Journal of the Human and Social
Science Researches, 1(4): 52-66.
- Çobanoğlu, F. (2010). The Analysis of the Relation between Production and Price in
Strawberry with Koyck and Almon Models. Proceeding of IX. National Agricultural
Economics Congress, 22-24 September 2010, Şanlıurfa. p.72-79.
- Dikmen, N. (2006). The Relationship between Koyck-Almon Approach and Tobacco
Production and Price. Journal of Social Sciences Institute of Çukurova University, 15(2):
153-168.
- Doğan, H.G. (2018). The Effects on Selected Some Agricultural Crops of Deficiency
Payment Supports in Turkey. Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and
Technology, 6(10): 1455-1462.
- Doğan, H.G., Gürler, A.Z., Ayyıldız, B., and Şimşek, E. (2014). An Analytical Evaluation of
Production-Price Relation in Potato Production Using Koyck Approach (The Case of TR
71 Region). Turkish Journal of Agriculture - Food Science and Technology, 2(1): 42-46.
- Erdal, G. (2006). The Analysis of the Relation between Production and Price in Agricultural
Products with Koyck Model (Tomato Case). Journal of Faculty of Agriculture of
Gaziosmanpaşa University, 23(2): 17-24.
- Erdal, G. and Erdal, H. (2008). The Interaction between Production and Prices for Dry Onion.
Journal of Faculty of Agriculture of Gaziosmanpaşa University, 25(1): 33-39.
- FAOSTAT (2022). Crop Production and Price Statistics, https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data
Access: 23.07.2022.
- Gujarati, D. (2001). Basic Econometrics (Translated by G.G. Şenesen and Ü. Şenesen),
Literature Publications, Istanbul.
- Güler, D., Saner, G., and Naseri, Z. (2017). Forecasting of Import Quantities of Oil Seed
Plants by Arima and Neural Networks Methods. Balkan and Near Eastern Journal of Social
Sciences, 3(1): 60-70.
- Gündüz, O. (2021). Why the Price of Sunflower Oil is Increasing in Turkey? Dynamic
Shortand Long-Term Analysis. Journal of Gaziosmanpasa Scientific Research, 10(1): 30-
48.
- Güriş, S., Güriş, B., and Çağlayan, E. (2017). Basic Econometrics with Eviews. Der
Publications, Istanbul.
- Hüsnüoğlu, H. (2018). The Relationship between Hazelnut Production and Prices in Turkey:
ARDL Bounds Testing Approach. Social Sciences Research Journal, 7(4): 24-41.
- Kadakoğlu, B. and Karlı, B. (2019). Oilseeds Production and Foreign Trade in Turkey.
Journal of Akademic Social Sciences, 96: 324-341.
- Kadakoğlu, B. and Yılmaz, H. (2022). Analysis of the Effects on Sunflower Production of
Agricultural Support Policies Implemented in Turkey, Turkish Journal of Agricultural
Economics, 28(1):89-98.
- Kaya, Y. (2018). Edirne’de Ayçiçeği ve Önemi. Edirne Tarım ve Hayvancılık Dergisi, 2018:
12.
- Kılıçbay, A. (1983). Applied Econometrics. Filiz Publications, Istanbul.
- Kıllı, F. and Beycioğlu, T. (2019). Oil Seeds and Crude Oil Production in the World and
Turkey, Problems of Oilseeds Production in Turkey. International Journal of Anatolia
Agricultural Engineering, 2019 (Special Issue 1): 17-33.
- Konyalı, S. (2017). Sunflower Production, Consumption, Foreign Trade and Agricultural
Policies in Turkey. Social Sciences Research Journal, 5(4):11-19.
- Koyck, L.M. (1954). Distributed Lags and Investment Analysis. Amsterdam: North-Holland
Publishing Company.
- Kutlar, A. (2007). Introduction to Econometrics, Nobel Publications Ankara.
- MAF (2022). Agricultural Products Markets-Sunflower, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry.
https://arastirma.tarimorman.gov.tr/tepge/Menu/27/Tarim-Urunleri-Piyasalari, Access:
23.07.2022.
- Meral, Ü.B. (2019). An Overview of Importance and Production of Sunflower (Helianthus
annuus L.,). International Journal of Life Sciences and Biotechnology, 2(2): 58-71.
- Özbay, N. and Çelik, Ş. (2016). Investigation by Almon Lag Model of Production and Price
Relationships in Watermelon Production in Turkey. KSU Journal of Agriculture and
Nature, 19(2): 141-146.
- Özçelik, A. and Özer, O.O. (2006). Analysis of Correlation of Wheat Production and Prices
with Koyck Models in Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 12(4): 333-339.
- Özsayın, D. (2017). Investigation of Production and Price Relationship in Cow Milk
Production by Koyck Model Approach. Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and
Technology, 5(6): 681-686.
- Özüdoğru, T. Miran, B. Taşkaya Top, B. and Uçum, İ. (2015). Effect of Difference Payment
Supports in Sunflower and Soybean Production. Institute of Agricultural Economics and
Policy Development Publications No.262, Ankara, p.168.
- Semerci, A. (2013). The Effects of Agrcultural Subsdes on Sunflower Cultvaton and Farmers'
Income: Evdence From Turkey. Pakstan Journal of Agrcultural Scences, 50(1): 139-145.
- Semerci, A. and Durmuş, E. (2021). Analysis of Oily Sunflower Production in Turkey.
Turkish Journal of Agriculture-Food Science and Technology, 9(1): 56-62.
- Semerci, A., Kaya, Y., Şahin, İ. and Çıtak, N. (2012). The Effect of Subsidizing Policy in Oil
Crops Production over Sunflower Planted Areas and Producer Welfare in Turkey. Selcuk
Journal of Agriculture and Food Sciences, 26 (2): 55-62.
- Shrestha, M.B. and Bhatta, G.R. (2018). Selecting Appropriate Methodological Framework
for Time Series Data Analysis. The Journal of Finance and Data Science, 4(2): 71-89.
- Taşkaya Top, B. and Özüdoğru, T. (2016). Factors that Affect Preferences of Support Policies
for Sunflower in Turkey. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research; 2(2): 1-10.
- Tinbergen, J. (1949). Long Term Foreign Trade Elasticities. Macroeconomica, 1: 174-185.
- TURKSTAT (2022). Crop Production and Price Statistics. https://www.tuik.gov.tr/, Access:
23.05.2022.
- Tüfekçi, Ş. (2019). Sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.) Plant, Ereğli Commodity Exchange,
p.1-15.
- Türkekul, B., Abay, C., Gürer, B., Ören, N. and Özalp, B. (2016). The Impact of Turkish
Agricultural Policy on Competitiveness of Oilseed Sunflower in Western Marmara Region,
Turkey, Proceeding of 27th International Scientific-Expert Congress of Agriculture and
Food Industry, 26 - 28 Eylül 2016, Bursa-Turkey, p.1-8.
- USDA (2022). Oilseeds: World Markets and Trade, https://www.fas.usda.gov/data/oilseeds-
world-markets-and-trade, Access: 20.05.2022.
- Yurdakul, F. (1998). Econometric Analysis of the Relationship between Cotton Production
and Cotton Prices: Koyck and Almon Approach. Journal of Cukurova University Faculty
of Economics and Administrative Sciences, 8 (1): 343-351.
- Yüksek, E. (2019). Economic Analysis of Oil Sunflower Production Activities in Adana.
Master Thesis, Kahramanmaraş Sütçü İmam University Institute of Science and
Technology, Kahramanmaraş.