Comparison of artificial neural networks and multiple regression analysis methods in housing valuation estimation: the example of Yenimahalle/Ankara)

Abstract

Due to the involvement of numerous factors in determining the sale prices of residential properties, accurately predicting market values is a critical issue. This research study aims to compare the results of models created using both a statistical method, Multiple Regression Analysis (MRA), and one of the artificial intelligence techniques, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), for the rapid and accurate prediction of market values, which are determined based on multiple variables for residential properties. Within the scope of this study, real estate listings for sale in different neighborhoods of Yenimahalle, Ankara, were examined. These listings were collected from an e-commerce website in Turkey, comprising a total of 220 residential properties for sale. Nine parameters that have the most significant impact on determining a property's market value were selected, and MRA and ANN models were developed. When the data were examined, it was seen that the selected ANN method gave more successful results in terms of regression and accuracy rate than MRA.

Keywords

• Housing Price
• Nominal Valuation
• Artificial Neural Networks
• GIS
• Prediction

Konut değerlemede uzman görüşü ve yapay sinir ağı ile modellemelerin karşılaştırılması

Abstract

Bu çalışmada Ankara ili, Yenimahalle ilçesi, Batıkent Bölgesi sınırları içerisinde bulunan konutların öznitelik verileri ve coğrafi konumlarının taşınmaz değerine olan etkileri incelenmiştir. Veri seti düzenlenirken Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemlerinden faydalanılmıştır. Çalışma kapsamında nominal değerleme ve Yapay sinir ağları (YSA) modellemede kullanılmıştır. Bölgedeki taşınmazların elde edilebilecek en yüksek hassasiyet ve en yüksek doğrulukta taşınmaz değer haritaları oluşturularak değer tespitleri yapılmıştır. Modellemede Nominal ve YSA yöntemlerine göre R2 değeri sırayla 0,76 ve 0,89 olarak bulunmuştur. YSA ile daha başarılı piyasa sonuçları tahmin edilmiştir. Nominal değerlemede ise uzman görüşü ile oluşan matematiksel modelin piyasa değerini tahmininin göz ardı edilemeyecek başarı elde ettiğini ve gelecekte modelin güncellemelerle sürdürülebilir olduğu gözlemlenmiştir.

Keywords

• Konut Değer Tahmini
• Nominal Modelleme
• Yapay Sinir Ağları
• CBS
• Tahmin

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