Batı Akdeniz Bölgesi Taşkın Tahminlerinde Homojenlik İrdelemesi

Abstract

Su kaynaklarının tasarım ve yönetiminde güvenilir taşkın tahminleri yapabilmek amacıyla kullanılan bölgesel taşkın frekans analizindeki temel faktör homojen bölgenin tanımlanmasıdır. Bu çalışmada Batı Akdeniz havzasının yıllık maksimum taşkın serilerinin bölgesel taşkın frekans analizi Dalrymple ve L-momentler homojenlik yaklaşımları kullanılarak yapılmıştır. Bölge; Antalya, Aşağı-Batı Akdeniz ve Yukarı-Batı Akdeniz olmak üzere üç homojen alt bölgeye bölünmüştür. Homojenlik testlerine bağlı olarak homojen bölgeler belirlendikten sonra akım gözlem istasyonlarına ait çeşitli yineleme aralıklarına sahip tasarım taşkın değerleri hesaplanarak sonuçlar karşılaştırılmıştır. Homojenlik testlerine göre çeşitli yineleme aralıkları için elde edilen tasarım taşkın değerleri arasındaki farkın, küçük yineleme aralıklarında önemsiz olduğu büyük yineleme aralıklarında özellikle değişkenlik ve çarpıklık katsayılarının yüksek olduğu istasyonlarda ise artış gösterdiği sonucu elde edilmiştir.

Keywords

• Homojenlik, bölgesel analiz, taşkın, tasarım taşkın tahminleri

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