A Method For Determination of Accident Probability in Construction Industry

Abstract

Safety issues for construction industry have been considered in almost every country. In this paper, an objective and quantitative accident probability calculation approach is proposed using actual construction work accidents in between 2000-2013. Probabilities were calculated by using Poisson distribution where accident rates and exposure values were used as distribution parameters. In an industry where the accidents are recorded in non-specific standards, it is very difficult to represent probability of accidents with a known distribution model. Thanks to the approach presented in this paper it was possible to provide an objective method to obtain accident probabilities using the Poisson distribution.

Keywords

• Activity-based accident rate; exposure; man-hour values

A Method For Determination of Accident Probability in Construction Industry

Abstract

İnşaat Sektöründe Kaza Olasılıklarının Belirlenmesi İçin Bir Yöntem

İnşaat sektöründe iş güvenliği bir çok ülkede önem verilen bir konudur. Bu makalede inşaat sektöründe nesnel ve hesaplanabilir yeni bir kaza olasılığı yaklaşımı sunulmaktadır. Bu kaza olasılığı hesaplaması için 2000-2013 yılları arasında ülkemizde gerçekleşen gerçek inşaat kazaları ve istanbul çevresinde bulunan 20 inşaat projesinin planlama tabloları kullanılmıştır. Olasılıklar, Poisson dağılımı ile kaza sıklıkları ve maruziyet değerlerinden faydalanılarak hesaplanmıştır.  İnşaat sektörü gibi kazaların random gerçekleştiği sektörlerde iş kazalarını herhangi bir olasılık dağılımı ile temsil edilmesi oldukça güçtür. Ancak bu yaklaşım sayesinde kaza olasılıkları projeye başlanmadan evvel rahatlıkla belirlenebilecektir. 

Keywords

• Aktivite tabanlı kaza sıklığı,maruziyet,adam-saat değerleri

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