Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Analysis in Turkey, with the Emphasis of Eastern Black Sea Basin

Abstract

In this study, regional intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves for Turkey were developed using the available maximum rainfall intensity values for various durations (D=5, 15 and 30 minutes, and 1, 3, 6, 12 and 24 hours). Multi-nonlinear regression analysis was carried out by using nine kinds of IDF formulas, which were taken by using various IDF formulae in the literature and newly generated formulae. In order to test the reliability of the functions, two criteria were used: the determination coefficient and the mean relative error. IDF analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin of Turkey, which is the most raing basin, is also emphasized and studied in detail. It has been concluded that the reliability of the results is high enough and that this paper will motivate and open new horizons to detailed studies on IDF analysis.

Keywords

• rainfall
• intenstiy-duration-frequency analysis
• regression analysis
• LPT3 distribution
• Turkey

References

1. Chow, V. T., Maidment, D. R., Mays, L.W., Applied Hydrology, McGraw- Hill Book Company, New York, 1988.
2. Şengül, S., Can, İ., Stochastic Modelling of Mean Monthly Flows of Karasu River, in Turkey. Water and Environment Journal, 25(1): 31-39, 2011.
3. Can, İ., Tosunoğlu, F., Kahya, E., Daily Streamflow Modelling Using Autoregressive Moving Average and Artificial Neural Networks Models: Case Study of Çoruh Basin, Turkey. Water and Environment Journal, 26(4): 567-576., 2012.
4. Yan, H., Sun, N., Wigmosta, W., Leung, L. R., Hou, Z., Coleman, A., Skaggs R., Evaluating Next‐Generation Intensity–Duration–Frequency Curves for Design Flood Estimates in the Snow‐Dominated Western United States, Hydrological Processes 34.5: 1255-1268, 2020.
5. Burn, D. H., A Framework for Regional Estimation of Intensity–Duration–Frequency (IDF) Curves. Hydrological Processes. 28: 4209–4218, 2014.
6. Karahan, H., Ceylan, H., Ayvaz, T., Predicting Rainfall Intensity Using a Genetic Algorithm Approach. Hydrological Processes. 470–475, 2007.
7. Bernard, M. M., Formulas for Rainfall Intensities of Long Duration. Transactions ASCE, 96 (1801): 592-624, 1932.
8. Koutsoyiannis, D., Kozonis. D., Manetas, A., A Mathematical Framework for Studying Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships. Journal of Hydrology, 206: 118-135, 1998.

9. Okonkwo, G. I., Mbajiorgu, C. C., Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Analysis for Southeastern Nigeria. Agricultural Engineering International: CIGR Journal, 12(1): 22－30, 2010.
10. Ayuso-Munoz J. L., Garcia-Marin, A., Ayuso-Ruiz, P., Estevez, J., Pizarro-Tapia, R., Taguas, E. V., A More Efficient Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationship by Using an "At-Site" Regional Frequency Analysis: Application at Mediterranean Climate Locations. Water Resources Management, 29: 3243-3263, 2015.
11. El-Sayed, A. H., Generation of Rainfall Intensity Duration Frequency Curves for Ungauged Sites, Nile Basin. Water Science and Engineering Journal 4(1): 112-124, 2011.
12. Karahan, H., Ayvaz, T. M., Gürarslan G., Şiddet-Süre-Frekans Bağıntısının Genetik Algoritma ile Belirlenmesi: GAP Örneği, İMO Teknik Dergi 4393.4407: 290, 2008.
13. Ghiaei, F., Kankal, M., Anilan, T., Yuksek, O. (2018). Regional Intensity–Duration–Frequency Analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, by using L-moments and Regression Analysis., Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 131(1-2), 245-257.
14. Yavuz, K., Türkiye’deki Standart Süreli Yağişlar İçin Şiddet-Süre-Tekerrür Periyodu İlişkisinin Uygun Olasılık Dağılım Fonksiyonunun Belirlenmesi ve Formülüze Edilmesi, Diss. Master Thesis Erciyes Unıversıty, Kayseri, 2018.
15. De Vyver, H. V., Bayesian Estimation of Rainfall Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationships. Journal of Hydrology. 529: 1451–1463, 2015.
16. Srivastav, R. K., Schardong, A., Simonovic, S. P., Equidistance Quantile Matching Method for Updating IDF Curves Under Climate Change. Water Resources Management, 28: 2539–2562, 2014.
17. Yüksek, Ö., Kankal, M., Üçüncü, O., Assessment of Big Floods in the Eastern Black Sea Basin of Turkey, Environmental Monitoring and Assessment, 185:797–814, 2013.
18. Bayazıt, M., Avcı, I., Water Resources of Turkey: Potential, Planning, Development and Management. International Journal of Water Resources Development. 13:443-452, 1997.
19. Uzlu, E., Akpınar, A., Komurcu, M. I., Restructuring of Turkey’s Electricity Market and the Share of Hydropower Energy: The case of Eastern Black Sea Basin. Renewable Energy, 36: 676–688, 2011.
20. DSİ, Annual Flood Reports, Ankara, Turkey, General Directorate of State Hydraulic Works, 1970-2005.
21. Anılan, T., Yüksek, Ö., Kankal, M., Doğu Karadeniz Havzası’nın L-Momentlere Dayalı Taşkın Frekans Analizi, Teknik Dergi 27.2: 7403-7427,2016.
22. Akçalı, E., Arman, H., Yağış Eşiği Bazlı Heyelan Erken Uyarı Sistem Önerisi: Trabzon İli Örneği, Teknik Dergi 24.116, 2013.
23. Anilan, T., Yuksek, Ö., Perception of Flood Risk and Mitigation: Survey Results from the Eastern Black Sea Basin, Turkey, Natural Hazards Review 18.2: 05016006, 2017
24. Örgün, E., Analysis of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Return Period Relationship for Turkey. MSc Thesis, Karadeniz Technical University Institute of Natural Sciences, Civil Engineering Division (in Turkish), 2015.
25. Yüksek, Ö., Yüksel, İ., Ertaş, B., Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Return Period Analysis in the Eastern Black Sea Region, Turkey. 9th International Congress on Advances in Civil Engineering, September 27-30, Trabzon, Turkey, 2010.
26. Sherman, C. W., Frequency and Intensity of Excessive Rainfall at Boston, Massachusetts. Transaction Paper, 95: 951-960, 1931.
27. Benzeden, E., Hacısüleyman, H., Variation of Parameters in Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Return Period with Return Period. Proceedings of 1st National Water Engineering Symposium, İzmir, Turkey.1: 159-161 (in Turkish), 2003.
28. Minh, N. L, Tachikawa, Y., Sayama, T., Takara, K., Derivation of Rainfall Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships for Short-Duration Rainfall from Daily Data. IHP Technical Documents in Hydrology, 6: 89-96, 2006.
29. Minh, N. L., Tachikawa, Y., Sayama, T., Takara, K., A Simple Scaling Characteristic of Rainfall in Time and Space to Derive Intensity-Duration-Frequency Relationships. Annual Journal of Hydraulic Engineering JSCE, 51:73-78, 2007.
30. Asikoglu, O. L., Benzeden, E., Simple Generalization Approach for Intensity–Duration–Frequency Relationships. Hydrological Processes, 28(3):1114-1123., 2014.