TRANS-PASİFİK ORTAKLIĞININ TÜRKİYE'NİN TEKSTİL VE KONFEKSİYON İHRACATINA OLASI ETKİSİ

Year 2016, Volume: 26 Issue: 2, 133 - 140, 01.12.2016

Osman Orkan Özer

Abstract

Dünya Ticaret Örgütü, Doha Turu müzakerelerinin çıkmaza girmesi sonucu, dünyada alternatif serbest ticaret bölgeleri oluşmaya başlamıştır. Serbest Ticaret Anlaşmalarından biri olan, Trans-Pasifik Ortaklık Anlaşması, katılımcı ülkelerin ekonomik büyüklüğü açısından günümüzde önemli bir ticaret anlaşmasıdır. Çalışmada sözü edilen bu anlaşmanın, Global Trade Analysis Project veri tabanı kullanılarak, Türkiye’nin tekstil ve konfeksiyon sektörü üzerindeki olası etkisi iki ayrı senaryo oluşturularak etkisi incelenmiştir. Oluşturulan ilk senaryoya göre; Trans-Pasifik Ortaklık Anlaşmasına taraf olan ülkelerin, tekstil, konfeksiyon ve lif bitkisi ürünleri için tarife dışı engellerin kaldırılması durumunda Türkiye %0.037’lik gayri safi yurt içi hasıla kaybına neden olacağı hesaplanmıştır. İkinci senaryoda anlaşma genişletilerek, vergiler ve kotalar dâhil olmak üzere uygulanmakta olan tüm gümrük tarifelerinin kaldırılmıştır. Bu durumda ise Türkiye’nin %0.302’lik bir GDP kaybına uğrayacağı öngörülmüştür. Türkiye Tekstil üretiminde ise, %0.30 ila %0.77 oranında bir düşüş beklenmektedir. Ayrıca, Türkiye’nin Tekstil ihracatında (2009 temel yıllı) 45.38 ila 151.83 milyon dolar, konfeksiyon ihracatında ise 76.03 ila 97.97 milyon dolar arasında önemli düşüşlerin gerçekleşeceği de öngörülmektedir

Keywords

Trans –Pasifik Ortaklığı (TPP), Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), Genel Denge Modeli, Tekstil ve Konfeksiyon İhracatı, Türkiye

THE POTENTIAL IMPACT OF A TRANS-PACIFIC PARTNERSHIP ON THE TEXTILE AND APPAREL EXPORTS OF TURKEY

Abstract

As the Doha Round negotiations entered into a deadlock, the World Trade Organization began to create a global alternative free trade zone. The current Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement is a crucial agreement due to the economic size of the member countries. In this study, which proposes two separate scenarios, the impact of this agreement on the textile and apparel industries of Turkey is assessed by using the Global Trade Analysis Project database. According to the first scenario, if the state party of the Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement removes the non-tariff barriers on textile, apparel, and fiber-plant products, Turkey will face a GDP loss of 0.037%. In the second scenario, the extent of the agreement is broadened such that all customs and tariffs, including taxes and quotas, are removed, which will result in a 0.302% GDP loss for Turkey. Turkey is also anticipating a loss of between 0.30% and 0.77% in the manufacturing of textiles. Moreover, significant declines are expected in Turkey’s exports (base year 2009) in the amount of 45.38 to 151.83 million dollars in textiles exports and 76.03 to 97.97 million dollars in apparel exports

Keywords

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP), Computable General Equilibrium, Textiles and Apparel Exports, Turkey

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