Apply Bayesian Inference with Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan

Yu-Jen Lin

doi:10.5152/tepes.2024.24004

Apply Bayesian Inference with Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan

Abstract

This paper applies Bayesian inference with normal–normal conjugate to forecast renewable energy generation. The generation forecasts a probability distribution rather than a quantitative value. An assumed normal distribution is initialized for renewable energy generation. This assumed normal distribution’s parameters, the mean μ, and the standard deviation σ, are inferred by Bayesian inference afterward. However, applying Bayesian inference barely shall encounter an intractable integral. To circumvent the intractable integral, this paper considers the normal-normal conjugate method. This method fixes the assumed normal distribution’s σ and characterizes μ as another normal distribution and then infers the latter normal distribution parameters. A case study of waste-to-energy generation forecast in Taiwan is investigated in this paper. It has been found from the investigation that the Bayesian inferred probability distribution outperforms the assumed one.

Keywords

Supporting Institution

This study funded by the I-Shou University Taiwan R.O.C. under grand ISU-112-02-01A.

Project Number

ISU-112-02-01A.

Thanks

The author would like to express his gratitide to I-Shou University, Taiwan, R.O.C. under Grand ISU-112-02-01A.

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Power Plants

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Yu-Jen Lin ^*
0000-0003-3938-9992
Taiwan

Publication Date

June 24, 2024

Submission Date

February 19, 2024

Acceptance Date

March 13, 2024

Published in Issue

Year 2024 Volume: 4 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.5152/tepes.2024.24004

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA95KD83BB

Cite

RIS / Bibtex

APA

Lin, Y.-J. (2024). Apply Bayesian Inference with Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, 4(2), 50-56. https://doi.org/10.5152/tepes.2024.24004

AMA

1.Lin YJ. Apply Bayesian Inference with Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan. TEPES. 2024;4(2):50-56. doi:10.5152/tepes.2024.24004

Chicago

Lin, Yu-Jen. 2024. “Apply Bayesian Inference With Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan”. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 4 (2): 50-56. https://doi.org/10.5152/tepes.2024.24004.

EndNote

Lin Y-J (June 1, 2024) Apply Bayesian Inference with Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 4 2 50–56.

IEEE

[1]Y.-J. Lin, “Apply Bayesian Inference with Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan”, TEPES, vol. 4, no. 2, pp. 50–56, June 2024, doi: 10.5152/tepes.2024.24004.

ISNAD

Lin, Yu-Jen. “Apply Bayesian Inference With Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan”. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems 4/2 (June 1, 2024): 50-56. https://doi.org/10.5152/tepes.2024.24004.

JAMA

1.Lin Y-J. Apply Bayesian Inference with Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan. TEPES. 2024;4:50–56.

MLA

Lin, Yu-Jen. “Apply Bayesian Inference With Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan”. Turkish Journal of Electrical Power and Energy Systems, vol. 4, no. 2, June 2024, pp. 50-56, doi:10.5152/tepes.2024.24004.

Vancouver

1.Yu-Jen Lin. Apply Bayesian Inference with Normal–Normal Conjugate to Forecast Renewable Energy Generation: A Case Study of Waste-to-Energy in Taiwan. TEPES. 2024 Jun. 1;4(2):50-6. doi:10.5152/tepes.2024.24004