Türkiye’nin Gayrimenkul Piyasasına Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımın Belirleyicileri: Bir Eşbütünleşik VAR’dan Kanıtlar

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 277 - 299, 01.09.2020

Barış Gök Utku Akseki

https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.788701

Cited By: 1

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de 2003:01-2016:12 dönemi için gayrimenkul sektörüne gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımın (FDIRE) makro ekonomik belirleyicilerini analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve vektör hata düzletme modeli (eşbütünleşik VAR) kullanılmış ve ayrıca seçilen makro ekonomik büyüklükler ile FDIRE arasındaki ilişkiye ışık tutmak için etki tepki fonksiyonları ve hata varyans ayrıştırmaları analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre, Türk emlak sektörüne gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımın en önemli ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı belirleyicileri gelen turist sayısının bir yıl gecikmeli değeri ile reel ev kiralarıdır. Sonuçlar reel ev kirası şoklarının reel ev fiyatları üzerinde de pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

Keywords

Gayrimenkul Piyasası, Gayrimenkule DYY, Eşbütünleşme, Eşbütünleşik VAR, Türkiye

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR

Abstract

The aim of the study is to analyze the macroeconomic determinants of foreign direct investment in real estate sector (FDIRE) covering the period from 2003:01-2016:12 for Turkey. To this aim, Johansen cointegration test and VECM (cointegrated VAR) have been employed and also impulse response functions and forecasted error variance decompositions have been analyzed to shed light on the issue of the nexus between selected macroeconomic indicators and FDIRE. Empirical findings suggest that the number of one-year lagged tourist arrivals and real house rent is the most important and statistically significant determinants of foreign direct investment in Turkish real estate sector. The findings imply that real house rent shocks also have a positive and significant impact on real house price.

Keywords

Real Estate Market, FDIRE, Cointegration,, Turkey, CVAR

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