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Türkiye’nin Gayrimenkul Piyasasına Doğrudan Yabancı Yatırımın Belirleyicileri: Bir Eşbütünleşik VAR’dan Kanıtlar

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 277 - 299, 01.09.2020
https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.788701

Abstract

Bu çalışmanın amacı Türkiye’de 2003:01-2016:12 dönemi için gayrimenkul sektörüne gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımın (FDIRE) makro ekonomik belirleyicilerini analiz etmektir. Bu amaçla Johansen eşbütünleşme testi ve vektör hata düzletme modeli (eşbütünleşik VAR) kullanılmış ve ayrıca seçilen makro ekonomik büyüklükler ile FDIRE arasındaki ilişkiye ışık tutmak için etki tepki fonksiyonları ve hata varyans ayrıştırmaları analiz edilmiştir. Ampirik bulgulara göre, Türk emlak sektörüne gelen doğrudan yabancı yatırımın en önemli ve istatistiksel olarak anlamlı belirleyicileri gelen turist sayısının bir yıl gecikmeli değeri ile reel ev kiralarıdır. Sonuçlar reel ev kirası şoklarının reel ev fiyatları üzerinde de pozitif ve anlamlı bir etkisi olduğunu ortaya koymaktadır.

References

  • Bilgili, F., Tülüce, N.S.H. and Doğan, İ. (2012). The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov regime-switching approach. Economic Modelling, 29, 1161–1169.
  • Bo, S. and Bo, G. (2007). Impact of international capital flows on real estate market: The empirical test in China from 1998 to 2006. Front. Econ. China, 2(4), 520–531.
  • Brooks, C. (2014). Introductory econometrics for finance (3rd ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Cuestas, J. C. (2017). House prices and capital inflows in Spain during the boom: Evidence from a cointegrated VAR and a structural Bayesian VAR. Journal of Housing Economics, 37, 22-28.
  • Deichmann, J., Karidis, S. and Sayek, S. (2003). Foreign direct Investment in Turkey: Regional determinants. Applied Economics. 35(16), 1767-1778.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1071.
  • Dumludag, D. (2009). An analysis of the determinants of foreign direct investment in Turkey: The role of the institutional context.  Journal of Business Economics and Management, 10(1), 15-30.
  • Enders, W. (2015). Applied econometric time series (4th ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Erdal, F. and Tatoğlu, E. (2002). Locational determinants of foreign direct investment in an emerging market economy: Evidence from Turkey. Multinational Business Review, 10(1).
  • Gholipour, H. F., Masron, T. A., Malekmohammadi, A. and Ooi, Ai-Yee (2010). The interaction between foreign real estate investment and tourism: The Iranian case in Dubai. World Applied Science Journal, 10 (Special Issue of Tourism & Hospitality), 40-44.
  • Gholipour, H. F. and Masron, T. A. (2011). The effect of tourism agglomeration on foreign real estate investment: Evidence from selected OECD countries. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 15(3), 222-230.
  • Gholipour H. F. (2013). Determinants of foreign investments in residential properties: Evidence from Malaysian states. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 17(3), 317-322.
  • Gholipour, H. F., Al-mulali U. and Mohammed, H. A. (2014). Foreign investments in real estate, economic growth and property prices: Evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 17(1), 33-45.
  • Gülter, H. and Basti, E. (2014). The housing finance system in Turkey. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 7(3), 363-382.
  • He, C., Wang, J. and Cheng, S. (2011). What attracts foreign direct investment in China’s real estate development?. Ann Reg Sci, 46, 267–293.
  • Hui, Eddie C.M. and Chan, K. K. K. (2014). Foreign direct investment in China’s real estate market. Habitat International, 43, 231-239.
  • Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • Juselius, K. (2006). The cointegrated VAR model: Methodology and applications. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Official Gazette (2012). Tapu kanunu ve kadastro kanununda değişiklik yapılmasına ilişkin kanun. Law No. 6302.
  • Official Gazette (2018). Türk parası kıymetini koruma hakkında 32 sayılı karara ilişkin tebliğ (Tebliğ No: 2008-32/34)’de değişiklik yapılmasına dair tebliğ (TEBLİĞ NO: 2018-32/51)”, Law No. 30557.
  • Philips, P. C. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Polat, B. and Payaslıoğlu, C. (2014). Determinants of foreign direct investment to Turkey: A sectoral approach. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies, 17(2). Poon, J. (2017). Foreign direct investment in the UK real estate market. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 23(3), 249-266.
  • Rodríguez, C. and Bustillo, R. (2010). Modelling foreign real estate investment: The Spanish case. J Real Estate Finan Econ, 41, 354–367.
  • Salem, M. and Baum, A. (2016). Determinants of foreign direct real estate investment in selected MENA countries. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 34(2), 116 – 142.
  • Sirin, S. M. (2017). Foreign direct investments (FDIs) in Turkish power sector: A discussion on investments, opportunities and risks. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 78, 1367-1377.
  • Wong, A. (2017). Transnational real estate in Australia: New Chinese diaspora, media representation and urban transformation in Sydney’s Chinatown. International Journal of Housing Policy, 17(1). 97-119.

The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR

Year 2020, Volume: 7 Issue: 2, 277 - 299, 01.09.2020
https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.788701

Abstract

The aim of the study is to analyze the macroeconomic determinants of foreign direct investment in real estate sector (FDIRE) covering the period from 2003:01-2016:12 for Turkey. To this aim, Johansen cointegration test and VECM (cointegrated VAR) have been employed and also impulse response functions and forecasted error variance decompositions have been analyzed to shed light on the issue of the nexus between selected macroeconomic indicators and FDIRE. Empirical findings suggest that the number of one-year lagged tourist arrivals and real house rent is the most important and statistically significant determinants of foreign direct investment in Turkish real estate sector. The findings imply that real house rent shocks also have a positive and significant impact on real house price.

References

  • Bilgili, F., Tülüce, N.S.H. and Doğan, İ. (2012). The determinants of FDI in Turkey: A Markov regime-switching approach. Economic Modelling, 29, 1161–1169.
  • Bo, S. and Bo, G. (2007). Impact of international capital flows on real estate market: The empirical test in China from 1998 to 2006. Front. Econ. China, 2(4), 520–531.
  • Brooks, C. (2014). Introductory econometrics for finance (3rd ed.). New York: Cambridge University Press.
  • Cuestas, J. C. (2017). House prices and capital inflows in Spain during the boom: Evidence from a cointegrated VAR and a structural Bayesian VAR. Journal of Housing Economics, 37, 22-28.
  • Deichmann, J., Karidis, S. and Sayek, S. (2003). Foreign direct Investment in Turkey: Regional determinants. Applied Economics. 35(16), 1767-1778.
  • Dickey, D. and Fuller, W. (1981). Likelihood ratio statistics for autoregressive time series with a unit root. Econometrica, 49(4), 1057-1071.
  • Dumludag, D. (2009). An analysis of the determinants of foreign direct investment in Turkey: The role of the institutional context.  Journal of Business Economics and Management, 10(1), 15-30.
  • Enders, W. (2015). Applied econometric time series (4th ed.). New York: John Wiley & Sons.
  • Erdal, F. and Tatoğlu, E. (2002). Locational determinants of foreign direct investment in an emerging market economy: Evidence from Turkey. Multinational Business Review, 10(1).
  • Gholipour, H. F., Masron, T. A., Malekmohammadi, A. and Ooi, Ai-Yee (2010). The interaction between foreign real estate investment and tourism: The Iranian case in Dubai. World Applied Science Journal, 10 (Special Issue of Tourism & Hospitality), 40-44.
  • Gholipour, H. F. and Masron, T. A. (2011). The effect of tourism agglomeration on foreign real estate investment: Evidence from selected OECD countries. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 15(3), 222-230.
  • Gholipour H. F. (2013). Determinants of foreign investments in residential properties: Evidence from Malaysian states. International Journal of Strategic Property Management, 17(3), 317-322.
  • Gholipour, H. F., Al-mulali U. and Mohammed, H. A. (2014). Foreign investments in real estate, economic growth and property prices: Evidence from OECD countries. Journal of Economic Policy Reform, 17(1), 33-45.
  • Gülter, H. and Basti, E. (2014). The housing finance system in Turkey. International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, 7(3), 363-382.
  • He, C., Wang, J. and Cheng, S. (2011). What attracts foreign direct investment in China’s real estate development?. Ann Reg Sci, 46, 267–293.
  • Hui, Eddie C.M. and Chan, K. K. K. (2014). Foreign direct investment in China’s real estate market. Habitat International, 43, 231-239.
  • Johansen, S. and Juselius, K. (1990). Maximum likelihood estimation and inference on cointegration – with applications to the demand for money. Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 52(2), 169-210.
  • Juselius, K. (2006). The cointegrated VAR model: Methodology and applications. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
  • Official Gazette (2012). Tapu kanunu ve kadastro kanununda değişiklik yapılmasına ilişkin kanun. Law No. 6302.
  • Official Gazette (2018). Türk parası kıymetini koruma hakkında 32 sayılı karara ilişkin tebliğ (Tebliğ No: 2008-32/34)’de değişiklik yapılmasına dair tebliğ (TEBLİĞ NO: 2018-32/51)”, Law No. 30557.
  • Philips, P. C. and Perron, P. (1988). Testing for a unit root in time series regression. Biometrika, 75(2), 335-346.
  • Polat, B. and Payaslıoğlu, C. (2014). Determinants of foreign direct investment to Turkey: A sectoral approach. Topics in Middle Eastern and African Economies, 17(2). Poon, J. (2017). Foreign direct investment in the UK real estate market. Pacific Rim Property Research Journal, 23(3), 249-266.
  • Rodríguez, C. and Bustillo, R. (2010). Modelling foreign real estate investment: The Spanish case. J Real Estate Finan Econ, 41, 354–367.
  • Salem, M. and Baum, A. (2016). Determinants of foreign direct real estate investment in selected MENA countries. Journal of Property Investment & Finance, 34(2), 116 – 142.
  • Sirin, S. M. (2017). Foreign direct investments (FDIs) in Turkish power sector: A discussion on investments, opportunities and risks. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 78, 1367-1377.
  • Wong, A. (2017). Transnational real estate in Australia: New Chinese diaspora, media representation and urban transformation in Sydney’s Chinatown. International Journal of Housing Policy, 17(1). 97-119.
There are 26 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Barış Gök This is me 0000-0002-0131-9625

Utku Akseki This is me 0000-0002-8426-1296

Publication Date September 1, 2020
Published in Issue Year 2020 Volume: 7 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Gök, B., & Akseki, U. (2020). The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, 7(2), 277-299. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.788701
AMA Gök B, Akseki U. The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR. TESAM Akademi Dergisi. September 2020;7(2):277-299. doi:10.30626/tesamakademi.788701
Chicago Gök, Barış, and Utku Akseki. “The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR”. TESAM Akademi Dergisi 7, no. 2 (September 2020): 277-99. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.788701.
EndNote Gök B, Akseki U (September 1, 2020) The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR. TESAM Akademi Dergisi 7 2 277–299.
IEEE B. Gök and U. Akseki, “The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR”, TESAM Akademi Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 2, pp. 277–299, 2020, doi: 10.30626/tesamakademi.788701.
ISNAD Gök, Barış - Akseki, Utku. “The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR”. TESAM Akademi Dergisi 7/2 (September 2020), 277-299. https://doi.org/10.30626/tesamakademi.788701.
JAMA Gök B, Akseki U. The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR. TESAM Akademi Dergisi. 2020;7:277–299.
MLA Gök, Barış and Utku Akseki. “The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR”. TESAM Akademi Dergisi, vol. 7, no. 2, 2020, pp. 277-99, doi:10.30626/tesamakademi.788701.
Vancouver Gök B, Akseki U. The Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in Real Estate Market of Turkey: Evidence from a Cointegrated VAR. TESAM Akademi Dergisi. 2020;7(2):277-99.