ESTABLISHING A FORECAST MODEL FOR STRAWBERRY SALES PRICES BY BOX-JENKINS METHOD AND EVALUATION OF THE FORECAST RESULTS

Year 2022, , 211 - 234, 30.12.2022

Begüm Akan , Emin Başar Baylan

https://doi.org/10.55071/ticaretfbd.1092970

Abstract

Strawberry, which plays a leading role as a raw material in many fields in the food industry as well as its fresh consumption, is a fruit that can be reached all four seasons of the year with greenhouse and soilless agriculture production, apart from traditional production. Strawberry is not resistant to the road and is risky in terms of stocking in the post-harvest period, therefore shows price differences according to the region and season. These price differences significantly affect both the producer and the consumer and the food industry, which uses strawberries as raw materials. In our study, where we aimed to develop a forecast model weekly strawberry sales prices in Turkey using weekly strawberry sales prices, Box-Jenkins forecasting model was used because time series data do not show trends or seasonality. As a result of the analyzes made, among 21 different ARIMA(p,d,q) models, the ARIMA(3,1,2) model was chosen, which gave the most successful estimation result.According to this model, a 52-week strawberry price prediction was made for the future.

Keywords

AGRICULTURE ECONOMICS, ARIMA, BOX-JENKINS, FORECAST MODEL, strawberry price forecast

BOX-JENKINS YÖNTEMİYLE ÇİLEK SATIŞ FİYATLARI İÇİN TAHMİN MODELİ KURULMASI VE TAHMİN SONUÇLARININ DEĞERLENDİRİLMESİ

Abstract

Taze tüketiminin yanı sıra gıda endüstrisinde birçok alanda hammadde olarak başrol oynayan çilek, geleneksel üretimin dışında, sera ve topraksız tarım üretimi ile yılın dört mevsimi ulaşılabilir bir meyvedir. Hasattan sonraki dönemde yola dayanıksız ve stoklama açısından riskli olan çilek, bu sebeple bölge ve mevsime göre fiyat farklılıkları göstermektedir. Bu fiyat farklılıkları hem üreticiyi hem de tüketici ve çileği hammadde olarak kullanan gıda endüstrisini de önemli ölçüde etkilemektedir. Haftalık çilek satış fiyatlarını kullanarak, Türkiye’deki haftalık çilek satış fiyatları için tahmin modeli geliştirmeyi amaçladığımız çalışmamızda, zaman serisi verileri trend veya mevsimsellik göstermediği için Box-Jenkins tahmin modelinden yararlanılmıştır. Yapılan analizler sonucunda 21 farklı ARIMA (p,d,q) modelleri arasından en başarılı tahmin sonucunu veren ARIMA(3,1,2) modeli seçilmiştir. Bu modele göre geleceğe yönelik 52 haftalık çilek fiyatı tahmini yapılmıştır.

Keywords

ARIMA, BOX-JENKINS, ÇİLEK FİYAT TAHMİNİ, TAHMİN MODELİ, TARIM EKONOMİSİ

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