Year 2018, Volume 3 , Issue 7, Pages 40 - 49 2018-12-12

The aim of this study is to enhance a time series model that estimates daily electricity energy demand for Turkey. In literature, annual and monthly electricity demand has been forecasted to take long term decision mostly, this study distinctively makes daily predictions to help daily operations for Turkish electricity market. Using Box-Jenkins methodology, an ARIMA model is constructed to forecast daily electricity demand for Turkey.The best model is found to be SARIMA(1,1,0)(1,0,1)7 to estimate the consumption for a day later. According to this time series model, Turkey daily electricity demand in January and February of 2018 is forecasted about 1.45% deviation. As the data is limited, only the first two month of 2018 can be compared to the actual daily consumption. This study will be carried on for the purpose of validating the model for other months of 2018.

ARIMA, Electricity demand, Forecast
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Primary Language en
Subjects Management
Journal Section Articles
Authors

Author: Ebru Yüksel Haliloğlu
Institution: TOBB UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND TECHNOLOGY
Country: Turkey


Author: Behzat Ecem Tutu (Primary Author)
Institution: TOBB UNIVERSITY OF ECONOMICS AND TECHNOLOGY
Country: Turkey


Dates

Publication Date : December 12, 2018

Bibtex @research article { tjep412438, journal = {Turkish Journal of Energy Policy}, issn = {2602-4659}, address = {}, publisher = {Oğuzhan AKYENER}, year = {2018}, volume = {3}, pages = {40 - 49}, doi = {}, title = {FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY}, key = {cite}, author = {Yüksel Haliloğlu, Ebru and Tutu, Behzat Ecem} }
APA Yüksel Haliloğlu, E , Tutu, B . (2018). FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY. Turkish Journal of Energy Policy , 3 (7) , 40-49 . Retrieved from https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/tjep/issue/41038/412438
MLA Yüksel Haliloğlu, E , Tutu, B . "FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY". Turkish Journal of Energy Policy 3 (2018 ): 40-49 <https://dergipark.org.tr/en/pub/tjep/issue/41038/412438>
Chicago Yüksel Haliloğlu, E , Tutu, B . "FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY". Turkish Journal of Energy Policy 3 (2018 ): 40-49
RIS TY - JOUR T1 - FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY AU - Ebru Yüksel Haliloğlu , Behzat Ecem Tutu Y1 - 2018 PY - 2018 N1 - DO - T2 - Turkish Journal of Energy Policy JF - Journal JO - JOR SP - 40 EP - 49 VL - 3 IS - 7 SN - 2602-4659- M3 - UR - Y2 - 2018 ER -
EndNote %0 Turkish Journal of Energy Policy FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY %A Ebru Yüksel Haliloğlu , Behzat Ecem Tutu %T FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY %D 2018 %J Turkish Journal of Energy Policy %P 2602-4659- %V 3 %N 7 %R %U
ISNAD Yüksel Haliloğlu, Ebru , Tutu, Behzat Ecem . "FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY". Turkish Journal of Energy Policy 3 / 7 (December 2018): 40-49 .
AMA Yüksel Haliloğlu E , Tutu B . FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY. TJEP. 2018; 3(7): 40-49.
Vancouver Yüksel Haliloğlu E , Tutu B . FORECASTING DAILY ELECTRICITY DEMAND FOR TURKEY. Turkish Journal of Energy Policy. 2018; 3(7): 49-40.