Spread of Crime Dynamics: A Mathematical Approach

Year 2024, Volume: 16 Issue: 2, 481 - 489, 31.12.2024

Michael Aguadze , Ana Vivas , Sujan Pant , Kubilay Dagtoros

https://doi.org/10.47000/tjmcs.1555972

Abstract

In this work, the spread of crime dynamics in the US is analyzed from a mathematical perspective. An epidemiological model is established, including five compartments: Susceptible ($S$), Latent 1 ($E_1$), Latent 2 ($E_2)$, Incarcerated ($I$), and Recovered ($R$). A system of differential equations is used to model the spread of crime. A result demonstrating the positivity of the solutions for the system is included. The basic reproduction number and the stability of the disease-free equilibrium are calculated following epidemiological theories. Numerical simulations are performed with US-specific parameter values. Understanding the dynamics of the spread of crime helps to determine what factors may work best to reduce violent crime effectively.

Keywords

Spread of crime, mathematical modeling, crime dynamics, stability analysis

Ethical Statement

In submitting this manuscript, we affirm that the research presented adheres to the highest ethical standards. We confirm that: This work is original and has not been published elsewhere nor is it under consideration by any other publication. All authors listed on the manuscript have significantly contributed to the research and writing process. We acknowledge that each author is accountable for the content of the work. We disclose any potential conflicts of interest that may influence our research or its interpretation. No such conflicts exist. We have properly cited all sources and provided appropriate credit to others’ work. By submitting this manuscript, we commit to uphold these ethical principles and ensure the integrity of the scientific community. Sincerely, Dr. Kubilay Dagtoros Dr. Ana Vivas Dr. Sujan Pant Mr. Michael Aguadze September 25, 2024

Supporting Institution

Norfolk State University

Thanks

We thank to the editorial board for reviewing our manuscript.

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