Abstract
References
- Bozkurt, D., & Şen, Ö.L. (2011). Değişik model ve senaryolara göre iklim değişikliğinin Fırat-Dicle Havzasına olan etkileri. III. Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi.
- Gül, G. O., Aşıkoğlu, Ö. L., Gül, A., Gülçem Yaşoğlu, F. ve Benzeden, E. (2013). Nonstationarity in flood time series. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19 (7), 1349-1360.
- Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Dottori, F., & Bianchi, A. (2015). Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 35, 199-212.
- Lu, Y., Quin X.S. ve Xie, Y.J. (2016). An integrated statistical and data-driven framework for supporting flood risk analysis under climate change. Journal of Hydrology, (533), 28-39.
- Muis, S., Güneralp, B., Jongman, B., Aerts, J. and J. Ward, P. (2015). Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data. Science of the Total Environmental, (538), 445-457.
- Orman ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı, (2016). İklim değişikliğinin su kaynaklarına etkisi projesi nihai rapor, 19 Temmuz 2016, iklim.ormansu.gov.tr
- Tekeli, İ.Y. ve Demirkıran, O. (2010). AnkaraYenimahalle Güvenç Havzası yağış ve akım karakteristikleri. TAGEM-BB-Topraksu-2010/89.
- Tofiq F.A. ve Güven A. (2015). Potential changes in inflow design flood under future climate projections for Darbandikhan Dam. Journal of Hydrology, (528) 45-51
- Yener, M. K., Sorman, A. U., Sorman, A. A., Sensoy, A., & Gezgin, T. (2007). Modeling studies with HEC-HMS and runoff scenarios in Yuvacik Basin, Turkiye. Int. Congr. River Basin Manage, 4(2007), 621-634.
Abstract
The study was carried out in Guvenc Basin which is within the Sakarya Basin in Ankara. The drainage area of the basin is 15.247 km². In this study, two hydrological models based on Geographic Information Systems, namely HEC-HMS and HECGeo-HMS, were used, and the results were compared with the output produced by using synthetic methods. RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5 climate change scenarios published by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change were used to determine effects of climate change. 10x10km resolution downscaled datasets of earth system models of HadGEM2-ES, MPI-ESM-MR, CNRM-CM5.1 were examined for the study by using Regional Climate Models. Using historical data, current situation of the head of water over values for Guvenc Basin was determined and the impact of climate change on these values have been analyzed. As a result a risk profile was created. The riskiest head of water value was determined under RCP 4.5 scenario and HadGEM2-ES climate model. The value (h0) was determined as 1.76 m.
Keywords
References
- Bozkurt, D., & Şen, Ö.L. (2011). Değişik model ve senaryolara göre iklim değişikliğinin Fırat-Dicle Havzasına olan etkileri. III. Türkiye İklim Değişikliği Kongresi.
- Gül, G. O., Aşıkoğlu, Ö. L., Gül, A., Gülçem Yaşoğlu, F. ve Benzeden, E. (2013). Nonstationarity in flood time series. Journal of Hydrologic Engineering, 19 (7), 1349-1360.
- Alfieri, L., Feyen, L., Dottori, F., & Bianchi, A. (2015). Ensemble flood risk assessment in Europe under high end climate scenarios. Global Environmental Change, 35, 199-212.
- Lu, Y., Quin X.S. ve Xie, Y.J. (2016). An integrated statistical and data-driven framework for supporting flood risk analysis under climate change. Journal of Hydrology, (533), 28-39.
- Muis, S., Güneralp, B., Jongman, B., Aerts, J. and J. Ward, P. (2015). Flood risk and adaptation strategies under climate change and urban expansion: A probabilistic analysis using global data. Science of the Total Environmental, (538), 445-457.
- Orman ve Su İşleri Bakanlığı, (2016). İklim değişikliğinin su kaynaklarına etkisi projesi nihai rapor, 19 Temmuz 2016, iklim.ormansu.gov.tr
- Tekeli, İ.Y. ve Demirkıran, O. (2010). AnkaraYenimahalle Güvenç Havzası yağış ve akım karakteristikleri. TAGEM-BB-Topraksu-2010/89.
- Tofiq F.A. ve Güven A. (2015). Potential changes in inflow design flood under future climate projections for Darbandikhan Dam. Journal of Hydrology, (528) 45-51
- Yener, M. K., Sorman, A. U., Sorman, A. A., Sensoy, A., & Gezgin, T. (2007). Modeling studies with HEC-HMS and runoff scenarios in Yuvacik Basin, Turkiye. Int. Congr. River Basin Manage, 4(2007), 621-634.
Details
| Primary Language | English |
|---|---|
| Journal Section | TURKISH JOURNAL OF WATER SCIENCES AND MANAGEMENT |
| Authors | |
| Publication Date | January 14, 2019 |
| Published in Issue | Year 2019 |