The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey

Gülsel Çiftci; Sonat Bayram

doi:10.48119/toleho.851669

EN

The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey

Abstract

Turkey has been hit by many earthquakes during the last century. A 7.4 earthquake which lasted for 45 seconds struck the Marmara Region on 17 August 1999 at 3:02 am. In addition to its destructive effects such as property losses and personal injuries, it also had negative effects on the tourism industry. Cancellation of package tours for foreign tourists in Turkey had a negative impact on travel agencies, hotels and airlines. The purpose of the present study is to outline the economic impact of the 1999 Earthquake on tourist flows. For this purpose, an event study was performed to evaluate the amount of loss between August 1998 and August 2001 due to the drop in the tourism industry. Additionally, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test, multiple linear regression (MLR) model and prediction models were employed to identify the patterns of structural change. The results show that the number of tourists decreased by about 20% following the earthquake. The results of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ estimation analysis based on the control variables suggest that if there had been no earthquakes, the number of future tourists would have been approximately 8% higher than the actual number of tourists who visited Turkey at that time.

Keywords

Tourism, Environmental crisis, Turkey, CUSUM, Earthquake

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Details

Primary Language

English

Subjects

Tourism (Other)

Journal Section

Research Article

Authors

Gülsel Çiftci ^*
0000-0001-8382-3309
Türkiye

Sonat Bayram
0000-0001-9885-8707
Türkiye

Publication Date

December 1, 2021

Submission Date

January 3, 2021

Acceptance Date

February 23, 2021

Published in Issue

Year 2021 Volume: 3 Number: 2

DOI

https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.851669

IZ

https://izlik.org/JA99EZ33DH

APA

Çiftci, G., & Bayram, S. (2021). The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Tourism Leisure and Hospitality, 3(2), 82-94. https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.851669

AMA

1.Çiftci G, Bayram S. The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey. TOLEHO. 2021;3(2):82-94. doi:10.48119/toleho.851669

Chicago

Çiftci, Gülsel, and Sonat Bayram. 2021. “The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey”. Journal of Tourism Leisure and Hospitality 3 (2): 82-94. https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.851669.

EndNote

Çiftci G, Bayram S (December 1, 2021) The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Tourism Leisure and Hospitality 3 2 82–94.

IEEE

[1]G. Çiftci and S. Bayram, “The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey”, TOLEHO, vol. 3, no. 2, pp. 82–94, Dec. 2021, doi: 10.48119/toleho.851669.

ISNAD

Çiftci, Gülsel - Bayram, Sonat. “The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey”. Journal of Tourism Leisure and Hospitality 3/2 (December 1, 2021): 82-94. https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.851669.

JAMA

1.Çiftci G, Bayram S. The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey. TOLEHO. 2021;3:82–94.

MLA

Çiftci, Gülsel, and Sonat Bayram. “The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey”. Journal of Tourism Leisure and Hospitality, vol. 3, no. 2, Dec. 2021, pp. 82-94, doi:10.48119/toleho.851669.

Vancouver

1.Gülsel Çiftci, Sonat Bayram. The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey. TOLEHO. 2021 Dec. 1;3(2):82-94. doi:10.48119/toleho.851669

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