Research Article
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Year 2021, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 82 - 94, 01.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.851669

Abstract

References

  • Aktürk, İ., & Albeni, M. (2002). Doğal Afetlerin Ekonomik Performans Üzerine Etkisi: 1999 Yılında Türkiye'de Meydana Gelen Depremler ve Etkileri. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(1).
  • Anadolu Agency (2018). Accessed from: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/life/turkey-observes-19th-anniversary-of-marmara-earthquake/1234211, Date of Access: 01.08.2020.
  • Association of Turkish Travel Agencies (TURSAB), (2019), Accessed from https://www.tursab.org.tr/istatistikler/turist-sayisi-ve-turizm-geliri, accessed date: 02.09.2019.
  • Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of applied econometrics, 18(1), 1-22.
  • Bibbee, A., Gönenç, R., Jacobs, S., Konvitz, J., & Price, R. (2000). Economic Effects of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 247, 9-17, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/233456804045
  • Biggs, D., Hall, C. M., & Stoeckl, N. (2012). The resilience of formal and informal tourism enterprises to disasters: reef tourism in Phuket, Thailand. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20 (5), 645-665.
  • Binder, J. J. (1998). The Event Study Methodology Since 1969. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 11:111–137.
  • Bramwell, B. & Lane, B. (2011) Crises, sustainable tourism and achieving critical understanding, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 19:1, 1-3, DOI: 10.1080/09669582.2010.535743
  • Brown, R., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149-192, DOI:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x
  • Campbell, J. Y., Champbell, J. J., Campbell, J. W., Lo, A. W., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets. princeton University press, 149-180
  • Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 591-605
  • Cró, S., & Martins, A. M. (2017). Structural breaks in international tourism demand: Are they caused by crises or disasters?. Tourism Management, 63, 3-9.
  • Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters CRED (2015), The Human Cost of Natural Disasters, A Global Perspective, 07-41
  • Çiftçi, G., Küçükaltan, D., & Menteş, S. A. (2017). Empirical Analysis Of Crisis Management Practices In Tourism Enterprises In Terms Of Organizational Learning. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 5(1), 42.
  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M.-H., & Marco Lau, C. K. (2020). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey’s tourist arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 23–26. doi:10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
  • Dickey, C., & Kohen, S. (1999). Tremor Terror. Newsweek, 134(18), 94-94.
  • Ewing, Bradley T.; Kruse, Jamie B.; Özdemir, Özlem (2004) : Disaster Loses in the Developing World: Evidence from the August 1999 Earthquake in Turkey, Discussion Paper, No. 2004/19, Turkish Economic Association, Ankara.
  • Faulkner, B (2001) Towards and framework for tourism disaster management. Tourism Management 22 (2), 135-147.
  • Fisher, F. (1970). Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions: An Expository Note. Econometrica,38(2), 361-366. doi:10.2307/1913018
  • Goetzl, D., & Healy, B. (2000). Turkey lures visitors with historical appeal. Advertising Age, 71(26), 50–51.
  • Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99–126.doi:10.1016/0304-4076(69)41685-7
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497–505.doi:10.1007/s00181-007-0175-9
  • Huang, J. H., & Min, J. C. (2002). Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism: the Taiwan case. Tourism Management, 23(2), 145-154.
  • Hyndman, R. J. (2010). “The ARIMAX Model Muddle.”, Accessed from https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/arimax/ accessed date: 12.08.2020.
  • Kapetanios, G. (2003). Unit Root Testing Against the Alternative Hypothesis of up to m Structural Breaks. SSRN Electronic Journal . doi:10.2139/ssrn.358322.
  • Kaya, A., Yetgin Akgün, D. and Çiftci, G. (2020). The Relationship of Crisis on Professional Attitudes of Tour Guiding Students, Journal of Turkish Tourism Research, 4(3): 2907-2923
  • Kontogeorgopoulos, N. (1999). Sustainable tourism or sustainable development? Financial crisis, ecotourism, and the'Amazing Thailand'campaign. Current Issues in Tourism, 2(4), 316-332.
  • Liu, Y., Cheng, P., & OuYang, Z. (2019). Disaster risk, risk management, and tourism competitiveness: A cross‐nation analysis. International Journal of Tourism Research, 1-13, DOI: 10.1002/jtr.2310
  • Maki, D. (2012). Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011–2015.doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.04.022
  • Mazzocchi, M., A. Montini, and R. Zoboli (1999). Vulnerabilita` socio-economica, flussi turistici e rischi sismici. Quaderni Dynamis IDSE-CNR.
  • Mendoza, C. A., Brida, J. G., & Garrido, N. (2012). The impact of earthquakes on Chile's international tourism demand. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 4(1), 48-60.
  • Mistilis, N., & Sheldon, P. (2006). Knowledge management for tourism crises and disasters. Tourism Review International, 10(12), 39–46. https://doi.org/10.3727/154427206779307330
  • Mitchell, M. L. (1989) The Impact of External Parties on Brand-Name Capital: The 1982 Tylenol Poisonings and Subsequent Cases. Economic Inquiry 27:601–618.
  • OECD. Publishing. (2004). Large-scale disasters: lessons learned. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, The 1999 Marmara earthquakes in Turkey, Akgiray V., Barbarosoglu G. and Erdik M., 77-92
  • Page, E. S. (1954), Continuous Inspection Schemes, Biometrika, Vol. 41, No. ½, 100-115
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361.doi:10.2307/1913712
  • Perron, P., & Vogelsang, T. J. (1992). Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 301. doi:10.2307/1391544
  • Petal, M., & Turkmen, Z. (2002). ABCD Basic Disaster Awareness Handbook. Istanbul: Beyaz Gemi.
  • Ritchie, B. (2008). Tourism disaster planning and management: From response and recovery to reduction and readiness. Current issues in Tourism, 11(4), 315-348.
  • Sausmarez, N. (2007). Crisis Management, Tourism and Sustainability: The Role of Indicators, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 15:6, 700-714, DOI: 10.2167/jost653.0.
  • Strong, N. (1992). Modeling Abnormal Returns: A Review Article. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 19: 533–553.
  • The World Bank (1999), Turkey Country Office, Marmara Earthquake Assessment, 39-41 https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/pda-1999-turkey.pdf, accessed date: 12.08.2020.
  • Vere-Jones, D. (1995). Forecasting earthquakes and earthquake risk. International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 503–538.
  • Wu, L., & Hayashi, H. (2013). The impact of the great east Japan earthquake on inbound tourism demand in Japan. 地域安全学会論文集, 21, 109-117.
  • Wu, L., & Hayashi, H. (2014). The impact of disasters on Japan’s inbound tourism demand. Journal of Disaster Research, 9(sp), 699-708.
  • Xu, Q., Chang, V., & Hsu, C.-H. (2020). Event Study and Principal Component Analysis Based on Sentiment Analysis – A Combined Methodology to Study the Stock Market with an Empirical Study. Information Systems Frontiers. doi:10.1007/s10796-020-10024-5.
  • Yetgin, D., Yılmaz A. ve Çiftci, G. (2018). Krizlerin Turist Rehberliği Öğrencilerinin Kariyer Planlamasındaki Etkisi, Journal of Tourism and Gastronomy Studies, 6(3), 195-214.
  • Zhao, L., Li, M., Chen, S., Chen, Y., Wang, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2020). A Study on Event-Oriented Text Retrieval with Deep Neural Network. 2020 5th IEEE International Conference on Big Data Analytics (ICBDA), Big Data Analytics (ICBDA), 2020 5th IEEE International Conference On, 386–392. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICBDA49040.2020.9101211.

The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey

Year 2021, Volume: 3 Issue: 2, 82 - 94, 01.12.2021
https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.851669

Abstract

Turkey has been hit by many earthquakes during the last century. A 7.4 earthquake which lasted for 45 seconds struck the Marmara Region on 17 August 1999 at 3:02 am. In addition to its destructive effects such as property losses and personal injuries, it also had negative effects on the tourism industry. Cancellation of package tours for foreign tourists in Turkey had a negative impact on travel agencies, hotels and airlines. The purpose of the present study is to outline the economic impact of the 1999 Earthquake on tourist flows. For this purpose, an event study was performed to evaluate the amount of loss between August 1998 and August 2001 due to the drop in the tourism industry. Additionally, CUSUM and CUSUMSQ test, multiple linear regression (MLR) model and prediction models were employed to identify the patterns of structural change. The results show that the number of tourists decreased by about 20% following the earthquake. The results of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ estimation analysis based on the control variables suggest that if there had been no earthquakes, the number of future tourists would have been approximately 8% higher than the actual number of tourists who visited Turkey at that time.

References

  • Aktürk, İ., & Albeni, M. (2002). Doğal Afetlerin Ekonomik Performans Üzerine Etkisi: 1999 Yılında Türkiye'de Meydana Gelen Depremler ve Etkileri. Süleyman Demirel Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi Dergisi, 7(1).
  • Anadolu Agency (2018). Accessed from: https://www.aa.com.tr/en/life/turkey-observes-19th-anniversary-of-marmara-earthquake/1234211, Date of Access: 01.08.2020.
  • Association of Turkish Travel Agencies (TURSAB), (2019), Accessed from https://www.tursab.org.tr/istatistikler/turist-sayisi-ve-turizm-geliri, accessed date: 02.09.2019.
  • Bai, J., & Perron, P. (2003). Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models. Journal of applied econometrics, 18(1), 1-22.
  • Bibbee, A., Gönenç, R., Jacobs, S., Konvitz, J., & Price, R. (2000). Economic Effects of the 1999 Turkish Earthquakes, OECD Economics Department Working Papers No. 247, 9-17, https://dx.doi.org/10.1787/233456804045
  • Biggs, D., Hall, C. M., & Stoeckl, N. (2012). The resilience of formal and informal tourism enterprises to disasters: reef tourism in Phuket, Thailand. Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 20 (5), 645-665.
  • Binder, J. J. (1998). The Event Study Methodology Since 1969. Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting 11:111–137.
  • Bramwell, B. & Lane, B. (2011) Crises, sustainable tourism and achieving critical understanding, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 19:1, 1-3, DOI: 10.1080/09669582.2010.535743
  • Brown, R., Durbin, J., & Evans, J. (1975). Techniques for Testing the Constancy of Regression Relationships over Time. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series B (Methodological), 37(2), 149-192, DOI:10.1111/j.2517-6161.1975.tb01532.x
  • Campbell, J. Y., Champbell, J. J., Campbell, J. W., Lo, A. W., Lo, A. W., & MacKinlay, A. C. (1997). The econometrics of financial markets. princeton University press, 149-180
  • Chow, G. C. (1960). Tests of equality between sets of coefficients in two linear regressions. Econometrica: Journal of the Econometric Society, 591-605
  • Cró, S., & Martins, A. M. (2017). Structural breaks in international tourism demand: Are they caused by crises or disasters?. Tourism Management, 63, 3-9.
  • Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters CRED (2015), The Human Cost of Natural Disasters, A Global Perspective, 07-41
  • Çiftçi, G., Küçükaltan, D., & Menteş, S. A. (2017). Empirical Analysis Of Crisis Management Practices In Tourism Enterprises In Terms Of Organizational Learning. Business & Management Studies: An International Journal, 5(1), 42.
  • Demir, E., Simonyan, S., Chen, M.-H., & Marco Lau, C. K. (2020). Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on Turkey’s tourist arrivals. Journal of Hospitality and Tourism Management, 45, 23–26. doi:10.1016/j.jhtm.2020.04.006
  • Dickey, C., & Kohen, S. (1999). Tremor Terror. Newsweek, 134(18), 94-94.
  • Ewing, Bradley T.; Kruse, Jamie B.; Özdemir, Özlem (2004) : Disaster Loses in the Developing World: Evidence from the August 1999 Earthquake in Turkey, Discussion Paper, No. 2004/19, Turkish Economic Association, Ankara.
  • Faulkner, B (2001) Towards and framework for tourism disaster management. Tourism Management 22 (2), 135-147.
  • Fisher, F. (1970). Tests of Equality Between Sets of Coefficients in Two Linear Regressions: An Expository Note. Econometrica,38(2), 361-366. doi:10.2307/1913018
  • Goetzl, D., & Healy, B. (2000). Turkey lures visitors with historical appeal. Advertising Age, 71(26), 50–51.
  • Gregory, A. W., & Hansen, B. E. (1996). Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts. Journal of Econometrics, 70(1), 99–126.doi:10.1016/0304-4076(69)41685-7
  • Hatemi-J, A. (2008). Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration. Empirical Economics, 35(3), 497–505.doi:10.1007/s00181-007-0175-9
  • Huang, J. H., & Min, J. C. (2002). Earthquake devastation and recovery in tourism: the Taiwan case. Tourism Management, 23(2), 145-154.
  • Hyndman, R. J. (2010). “The ARIMAX Model Muddle.”, Accessed from https://robjhyndman.com/hyndsight/arimax/ accessed date: 12.08.2020.
  • Kapetanios, G. (2003). Unit Root Testing Against the Alternative Hypothesis of up to m Structural Breaks. SSRN Electronic Journal . doi:10.2139/ssrn.358322.
  • Kaya, A., Yetgin Akgün, D. and Çiftci, G. (2020). The Relationship of Crisis on Professional Attitudes of Tour Guiding Students, Journal of Turkish Tourism Research, 4(3): 2907-2923
  • Kontogeorgopoulos, N. (1999). Sustainable tourism or sustainable development? Financial crisis, ecotourism, and the'Amazing Thailand'campaign. Current Issues in Tourism, 2(4), 316-332.
  • Liu, Y., Cheng, P., & OuYang, Z. (2019). Disaster risk, risk management, and tourism competitiveness: A cross‐nation analysis. International Journal of Tourism Research, 1-13, DOI: 10.1002/jtr.2310
  • Maki, D. (2012). Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks. Economic Modelling, 29(5), 2011–2015.doi:10.1016/j.econmod.2012.04.022
  • Mazzocchi, M., A. Montini, and R. Zoboli (1999). Vulnerabilita` socio-economica, flussi turistici e rischi sismici. Quaderni Dynamis IDSE-CNR.
  • Mendoza, C. A., Brida, J. G., & Garrido, N. (2012). The impact of earthquakes on Chile's international tourism demand. Journal of Policy Research in Tourism, Leisure and Events, 4(1), 48-60.
  • Mistilis, N., & Sheldon, P. (2006). Knowledge management for tourism crises and disasters. Tourism Review International, 10(12), 39–46. https://doi.org/10.3727/154427206779307330
  • Mitchell, M. L. (1989) The Impact of External Parties on Brand-Name Capital: The 1982 Tylenol Poisonings and Subsequent Cases. Economic Inquiry 27:601–618.
  • OECD. Publishing. (2004). Large-scale disasters: lessons learned. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, The 1999 Marmara earthquakes in Turkey, Akgiray V., Barbarosoglu G. and Erdik M., 77-92
  • Page, E. S. (1954), Continuous Inspection Schemes, Biometrika, Vol. 41, No. ½, 100-115
  • Perron, P. (1989). The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis. Econometrica, 57(6), 1361.doi:10.2307/1913712
  • Perron, P., & Vogelsang, T. J. (1992). Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity. Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 10(3), 301. doi:10.2307/1391544
  • Petal, M., & Turkmen, Z. (2002). ABCD Basic Disaster Awareness Handbook. Istanbul: Beyaz Gemi.
  • Ritchie, B. (2008). Tourism disaster planning and management: From response and recovery to reduction and readiness. Current issues in Tourism, 11(4), 315-348.
  • Sausmarez, N. (2007). Crisis Management, Tourism and Sustainability: The Role of Indicators, Journal of Sustainable Tourism, 15:6, 700-714, DOI: 10.2167/jost653.0.
  • Strong, N. (1992). Modeling Abnormal Returns: A Review Article. Journal of Business Finance and Accounting 19: 533–553.
  • The World Bank (1999), Turkey Country Office, Marmara Earthquake Assessment, 39-41 https://www.gfdrr.org/sites/default/files/publication/pda-1999-turkey.pdf, accessed date: 12.08.2020.
  • Vere-Jones, D. (1995). Forecasting earthquakes and earthquake risk. International Journal of Forecasting, 11, 503–538.
  • Wu, L., & Hayashi, H. (2013). The impact of the great east Japan earthquake on inbound tourism demand in Japan. 地域安全学会論文集, 21, 109-117.
  • Wu, L., & Hayashi, H. (2014). The impact of disasters on Japan’s inbound tourism demand. Journal of Disaster Research, 9(sp), 699-708.
  • Xu, Q., Chang, V., & Hsu, C.-H. (2020). Event Study and Principal Component Analysis Based on Sentiment Analysis – A Combined Methodology to Study the Stock Market with an Empirical Study. Information Systems Frontiers. doi:10.1007/s10796-020-10024-5.
  • Yetgin, D., Yılmaz A. ve Çiftci, G. (2018). Krizlerin Turist Rehberliği Öğrencilerinin Kariyer Planlamasındaki Etkisi, Journal of Tourism and Gastronomy Studies, 6(3), 195-214.
  • Zhao, L., Li, M., Chen, S., Chen, Y., Wang, Y., & Zhang, Y. (2020). A Study on Event-Oriented Text Retrieval with Deep Neural Network. 2020 5th IEEE International Conference on Big Data Analytics (ICBDA), Big Data Analytics (ICBDA), 2020 5th IEEE International Conference On, 386–392. https://doi.org/10.1109/ICBDA49040.2020.9101211.
There are 48 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Tourism (Other)
Journal Section Peer-reviewed Articles
Authors

Gülsel Çiftci 0000-0001-8382-3309

Sonat Bayram 0000-0001-9885-8707

Publication Date December 1, 2021
Submission Date January 3, 2021
Acceptance Date February 23, 2021
Published in Issue Year 2021 Volume: 3 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Çiftci, G., & Bayram, S. (2021). The Effects of Earthquakes on Tourism: Evidence from Turkey. Journal of Tourism Leisure and Hospitality, 3(2), 82-94. https://doi.org/10.48119/toleho.851669

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