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PREDICTIVE POLICING: CASE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 212 - 223, 20.07.2025

Abstract

In recent years, predictive policing has emerged as a highly influential yet deeply controversial approach to crime prevention in the United States. By harnessing historical crime data and applying statistical and machine learning models, law enforcement agencies aim to forecast the location, time, and even individuals most likely to be involved in future criminal activity. While the underlying goal of these systems is to improve efficiency and reduce crime through proactive intervention, their implementation has raised complex questions about fairness, legality, and public accountability.
This article provides an in-depth examination of predictive policing from multiple dimensions: theoretical foundations, empirical applications, legal critiques, and ethical implications. It begins by situating predictive policing within broader criminological theories such as rational choice, routine activity theory, and broken windows policing, explaining how these frameworks inform algorithmic crime forecasting. The article then presents detailed case studies from three major U.S. cities–Los Angeles (PredPol and Operation LASER), Chicago (Strategic Subject List), and New York City (CompStat and Domain Awareness System)–to analyze how different models have been operationalized, evaluated, and contested.
Through a synthesis of academic research, governmental reports, and empirical evaluations, the article critically assesses whether predictive policing delivers on its promises. Findings suggest that while there may be limited improvements in crime detection or resource deployment in some contexts, these gains are often offset by disproportionate targeting of marginalized communities, lack of transparency in algorithmic design, and absence of independent oversight mechanisms.
The article concludes with a set of policy recommendations aimed at mitigating harm and enhancing accountability. These include mandating algorithmic transparency, implementing fairness-aware design principles, strengthening data governance, and embedding community oversight into all stages of system development and deployment. Ultimately, while predictive policing technologies may offer tactical benefits, their long-term value depends on the establishment of ethical, legal, and socially just frameworks that prioritize civil liberties and public trust.

References

  • Arcila, F. Jr. (2014). Nuance, technology, and the Fourth Amendment: A response to predictive policing and reasonable suspicion. Emory Law Journal Online, 63, 2087–2095. Retrieved from https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj-online/30/
  • Benbouzid, B. (2019). To predict and to manage: Predictive policing in the United States. Big Data & Society, 6(1). 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053951719861703
  • Braga, A. A., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2012). Hot spots policing effects on crime. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 8(1), 1–96. https://doi.org/10.4073/csr.2012.8
  • Carvalho, A., & Pedrosa, I. (2021). Data analysis in predicting crime: Predictive policing. In Proceedings of the 2021 16th Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies (CISTI) (pp. 1–7). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.23919/CISTI52073.2021.9476393
  • Ferguson, A. G. (2012). Predictive policing and reasonable suspicion. Emory Law Journal, 62(2), 259–325. https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj/vol62/iss2/1/
  • Ferguson, A. G. (2017). Policing predictive policing. Washington University Law Review, 94(5), 1109–1189. https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/law_lawreview/vol94/iss5/5
  • Brayne, S., Rosenblat, A., & boyd, d. (2015). Predictive policing. In The SAGE Encyclopedia of Surveillance, Security, and Privacy. SAGE Publications.
  • Galiani, S., & Jaitman, L. (2022). Predictive policing in a developing country: Evidence from two randomized controlled trials. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 39(4), 805–831. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-022-09551-y
  • Gau, J. M., & Cameron, A. L. J. (2019). Broken windows policing. In B. M. Huebner (Ed.), Oxford Bibliographies in Criminology. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/obo/9780195396607-0265
  • Gerstner, D. (2018). Predictive policing in the context of residential burglary: An empirical illustration on the basis of a pilot project in Baden-Württemberg, Germany. European Journal for Security Research, 3(2), 115–138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41125-018-0033-0
  • Gstrein, O. J., Bunnik, A., & Zwitter, A. (2019). Ethical, legal and social challenges of predictive policing. Católica Law Review, 3(3), 77–98.
  • Hadjimatheou, K., & Nathan, C. (2022). The ethics of predictive policing. In C. Véliz (Ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Digital Ethics (pp. 433–448). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198857815.013.22
  • Karppi, T. (2018). “The computer said so”: On the ethics, effectiveness, and cultural techniques of predictive policing. Social Media + Society, 4(2), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305118768296
  • Kutnowski, M. (2017). The ethical dangers and merits of predictive policing. Journal of Community Safety and Well-Being, 2(1), 13–17. https://doi.org/10.35502/jcswb.36
  • Leng, J., & Li, G. (2018). Research on the theoretical basis and technical path of predictive policing. Proceedings of the 2018 7th International Conference on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development (ICEESD 2018), 737–741. Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/iceesd-18.2018.136
  • Meijer, A., & Wessels, M. (2019). Predictive policing: Review of benefits and drawbacks. International Journal of Public Administration, 42(12), 1031–1039. https://doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2019.1575664
  • Miller, S. (2021). Predictive policing. In D. Edmonds (Ed.), Future Morality (1st ed., pp. 73–82). Oxford University Press.
  • Modise, J. M. (2024). Balancing safety and justice: The ethics of predictive policing. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 9(9), 3455–3463. https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24SEP617
  • Mugari, I., & Obioha, E. E. (2021). Predictive policing and crime control in the United States of America and Europe: Trends in a decade of research and the future of predictive policing. Social Sciences, 10(6), 234. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci10060234
  • Pais, L. G. (2019). Predictive policing: Is it really an innovation? European Law Enforcement Research Bulletin, (4 SCE), 125–131.
  • Perry, W. L., McInnis, B., Price, C. C., Smith, S. C., & Hollywood, J. S. (2013). Predictive policing: Forecasting crime for law enforcement. RAND Corporation.
  • Nabil, A. R., Tusher, M., Akther, M. N., & Rayhan, R. U. (2025). Ethical implications of AI-powered predictive policing: Balancing public safety with privacy concerns. Innovatech Engineering Journal, 2(1), 47–58.
  • Rotaru, V., Huang, Y., Li, T., Evans, J., & Chattopadhyay, I. (2022). Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a signature of enforcement bias in US cities. Nature Human Behaviour, 6(8), 1056–1068. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01372-0
  • Saunders, J., Hunt, P., & Hollywood, J. S. (2016). Predictions put into practice: A quasi-experimental evaluation of Chicago's predictive policing pilot. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 12(3), 347–371. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-016-9272-0
  • Shapiro, A. (2017). Reform predictive policing. Nature, 541(7638), 458–460. https://doi.org/10.1038/541458a
  • Sheehey, B. (2019). Algorithmic paranoia: The temporal governmentality of predictive policing. Ethics and Information Technology, 21(1), 49–58. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-018-9489-x
  • Susser, D. (2021). Predictive policing and the ethics of preemption. In B. Jones & E. Mendieta (Eds.), The ethics of policing: New perspectives on law enforcement (pp. 268–292). New York University Press. https://doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9781479803729.003.0013
  • Wilson, D. (2019). Predictive policing management: A brief history of patrol automation. New Formations: A Journal of Culture, Theory, Politics, 98, 139–155. https://doi.org/10.3898/NEWF:98.09.2019
  • Yang, F. (2019). Predictive policing. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.013.508

ÖNGÖRÜCÜ POLİSLİK: AMERİKA BİRLEŞİK DEVLETLERİ ÖRNEĞİ

Year 2025, Volume: 9 Issue: 2, 212 - 223, 20.07.2025

Abstract

Son yıllarda, öngörücü polislik (predictive policing), Amerika Birleşik Devletleri’nde suç önleme alanında etkili fakat oldukça tartışmalı bir yaklaşım olarak öne çıkmıştır. Geçmiş suç verilerinden yararlanarak istatistiksel ve makine öğrenmesi modelleri kullanan bu sistemler, kolluk kuvvetlerinin gelecekteki suçların yerini, zamanını ve hatta faillerini önceden tahmin etmelerini amaçlamaktadır. Ancak bu teknolojilerin temel hedefi, etkinlik ve suç oranlarını azaltma gibi amaçlara hizmet etse de, uygulamada adalet, hukukilik ve kamu denetimi gibi alanlarda ciddi tartışmalara neden olmuştur.
Bu makale, öngörücü polisliğe ilişkin kuramsal temelleri, ampirik uygulamaları, hukuki eleştirileri ve etik yansımaları çok boyutlu bir biçimde incelemektedir. İlk olarak, rasyonel seçim kuramı, rutin faaliyet teorisi ve kırık camlar kuramı gibi kriminolojik yaklaşımlarla bu uygulamalar arasındaki ilişki tartışılmakta, ardından öngörücü polislik modellerinin bilimsel arka planı açıklanmaktadır. Makalede, Los Angeles (PredPol ve LASER Operasyonu), Chicago (Stratejik Kişi Listesi) ve New York (CompStat ve Domain Awareness System) gibi büyük şehirlerdeki örnek olay incelemeleri üzerinden bu sistemlerin nasıl uygulandığı, değerlendirildiği ve kamuoyunda nasıl karşılandığı analiz edilmektedir.
Kapsamlı literatür taraması ve ampirik bulgular ışığında yapılan değerlendirmeler, bu sistemlerin bazı durumlarda suçun önlenmesinde veya kaynakların daha etkili kullanılmasında sınırlı başarılar sağladığını ortaya koymaktadır. Ancak bu kazanımlar, sıklıkla dezavantajlı toplulukların orantısız biçimde hedef alınması, algoritmaların şeffaf olmaması ve bağımsız denetim mekanizmalarının eksikliği gibi önemli sorunlarla gölgelenmektedir.
Makale, şeffaf algoritmalar, adil yapay zeka uygulamaları, güçlü veri yönetimi ve toplum temelli denetim gibi bir dizi politika önerisiyle son bulmaktadır. Sonuç olarak, öngörücü polislik teknolojileri taktik düzeyde fayda sağlama potansiyeline sahip olsa da, uzun vadede meşruiyetini ve toplumsal kabulünü ancak etik, hukuki ve adalet odaklı çerçeveler içinde sürdürebilecektir.

References

  • Arcila, F. Jr. (2014). Nuance, technology, and the Fourth Amendment: A response to predictive policing and reasonable suspicion. Emory Law Journal Online, 63, 2087–2095. Retrieved from https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj-online/30/
  • Benbouzid, B. (2019). To predict and to manage: Predictive policing in the United States. Big Data & Society, 6(1). 1–13. https://doi.org/10.1177/2053951719861703
  • Braga, A. A., Papachristos, A. V., & Hureau, D. M. (2012). Hot spots policing effects on crime. Campbell Systematic Reviews, 8(1), 1–96. https://doi.org/10.4073/csr.2012.8
  • Carvalho, A., & Pedrosa, I. (2021). Data analysis in predicting crime: Predictive policing. In Proceedings of the 2021 16th Iberian Conference on Information Systems and Technologies (CISTI) (pp. 1–7). IEEE. https://doi.org/10.23919/CISTI52073.2021.9476393
  • Ferguson, A. G. (2012). Predictive policing and reasonable suspicion. Emory Law Journal, 62(2), 259–325. https://scholarlycommons.law.emory.edu/elj/vol62/iss2/1/
  • Ferguson, A. G. (2017). Policing predictive policing. Washington University Law Review, 94(5), 1109–1189. https://openscholarship.wustl.edu/law_lawreview/vol94/iss5/5
  • Brayne, S., Rosenblat, A., & boyd, d. (2015). Predictive policing. In The SAGE Encyclopedia of Surveillance, Security, and Privacy. SAGE Publications.
  • Galiani, S., & Jaitman, L. (2022). Predictive policing in a developing country: Evidence from two randomized controlled trials. Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 39(4), 805–831. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-022-09551-y
  • Gau, J. M., & Cameron, A. L. J. (2019). Broken windows policing. In B. M. Huebner (Ed.), Oxford Bibliographies in Criminology. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/obo/9780195396607-0265
  • Gerstner, D. (2018). Predictive policing in the context of residential burglary: An empirical illustration on the basis of a pilot project in Baden-Württemberg, Germany. European Journal for Security Research, 3(2), 115–138. https://doi.org/10.1007/s41125-018-0033-0
  • Gstrein, O. J., Bunnik, A., & Zwitter, A. (2019). Ethical, legal and social challenges of predictive policing. Católica Law Review, 3(3), 77–98.
  • Hadjimatheou, K., & Nathan, C. (2022). The ethics of predictive policing. In C. Véliz (Ed.), The Oxford Handbook of Digital Ethics (pp. 433–448). Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/oxfordhb/9780198857815.013.22
  • Karppi, T. (2018). “The computer said so”: On the ethics, effectiveness, and cultural techniques of predictive policing. Social Media + Society, 4(2), 1–9. https://doi.org/10.1177/2056305118768296
  • Kutnowski, M. (2017). The ethical dangers and merits of predictive policing. Journal of Community Safety and Well-Being, 2(1), 13–17. https://doi.org/10.35502/jcswb.36
  • Leng, J., & Li, G. (2018). Research on the theoretical basis and technical path of predictive policing. Proceedings of the 2018 7th International Conference on Energy, Environment and Sustainable Development (ICEESD 2018), 737–741. Atlantis Press. https://doi.org/10.2991/iceesd-18.2018.136
  • Meijer, A., & Wessels, M. (2019). Predictive policing: Review of benefits and drawbacks. International Journal of Public Administration, 42(12), 1031–1039. https://doi.org/10.1080/01900692.2019.1575664
  • Miller, S. (2021). Predictive policing. In D. Edmonds (Ed.), Future Morality (1st ed., pp. 73–82). Oxford University Press.
  • Modise, J. M. (2024). Balancing safety and justice: The ethics of predictive policing. International Journal of Innovative Science and Research Technology, 9(9), 3455–3463. https://doi.org/10.38124/ijisrt/IJISRT24SEP617
  • Mugari, I., & Obioha, E. E. (2021). Predictive policing and crime control in the United States of America and Europe: Trends in a decade of research and the future of predictive policing. Social Sciences, 10(6), 234. https://doi.org/10.3390/socsci10060234
  • Pais, L. G. (2019). Predictive policing: Is it really an innovation? European Law Enforcement Research Bulletin, (4 SCE), 125–131.
  • Perry, W. L., McInnis, B., Price, C. C., Smith, S. C., & Hollywood, J. S. (2013). Predictive policing: Forecasting crime for law enforcement. RAND Corporation.
  • Nabil, A. R., Tusher, M., Akther, M. N., & Rayhan, R. U. (2025). Ethical implications of AI-powered predictive policing: Balancing public safety with privacy concerns. Innovatech Engineering Journal, 2(1), 47–58.
  • Rotaru, V., Huang, Y., Li, T., Evans, J., & Chattopadhyay, I. (2022). Event-level prediction of urban crime reveals a signature of enforcement bias in US cities. Nature Human Behaviour, 6(8), 1056–1068. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41562-022-01372-0
  • Saunders, J., Hunt, P., & Hollywood, J. S. (2016). Predictions put into practice: A quasi-experimental evaluation of Chicago's predictive policing pilot. Journal of Experimental Criminology, 12(3), 347–371. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11292-016-9272-0
  • Shapiro, A. (2017). Reform predictive policing. Nature, 541(7638), 458–460. https://doi.org/10.1038/541458a
  • Sheehey, B. (2019). Algorithmic paranoia: The temporal governmentality of predictive policing. Ethics and Information Technology, 21(1), 49–58. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10676-018-9489-x
  • Susser, D. (2021). Predictive policing and the ethics of preemption. In B. Jones & E. Mendieta (Eds.), The ethics of policing: New perspectives on law enforcement (pp. 268–292). New York University Press. https://doi.org/10.18574/nyu/9781479803729.003.0013
  • Wilson, D. (2019). Predictive policing management: A brief history of patrol automation. New Formations: A Journal of Culture, Theory, Politics, 98, 139–155. https://doi.org/10.3898/NEWF:98.09.2019
  • Yang, F. (2019). Predictive policing. In Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Criminology and Criminal Justice. Oxford University Press. https://doi.org/10.1093/acrefore/9780190264079.013.508
There are 29 citations in total.

Details

Primary Language English
Subjects Sociology (Other)
Journal Section Research Article
Authors

Şükrü Can Öztürk 0000-0002-6882-8061

Şerafettin Erten 0000-0003-0297-0580

Early Pub Date July 19, 2025
Publication Date July 20, 2025
Submission Date June 2, 2025
Acceptance Date June 22, 2025
Published in Issue Year 2025 Volume: 9 Issue: 2

Cite

APA Öztürk, Ş. C., & Erten, Ş. (2025). PREDICTIVE POLICING: CASE OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA. Uluslararası Toplumsal Bilimler Dergisi, 9(2), 212-223.