TÜRKİYE'DE TERÖRİZME KATILIM: ŞEHİR DÜZEYİNDE BİR ANALİZ

Abstract

Bu çalışma, Türkiye'de terörle ilişkilendirilen bireylerin il düzeyinde mekânsal dağılımını ve bu dağılımı şekillendiren sosyoekonomik ve kurumsal faktörleri incelemektedir. Türkiye'nin en çok aranan terörist listeleri temel alınarak, terörle ilişkilendirilen bireylerin oranı ile gelir düzeyi, eğitim durumu, kamu harcamaları ve din arasındaki ilişkiler ayrı regresyon modelleriyle analiz edilmiştir. Analiz iki aşamada yürütülmüştür: ilk olarak ulusal düzeydeki belirleyiciler regresyon analiziyle tespit edilmiş, ardından her bir bağımsız değişkenin etkisinin iller arasında nasıl farklılaştığını değerlendirmek üzere marjinal etkiler hesaplanarak yerel karşılaştırmalar yapılmıştır. Bulgulara göre, gelir düzeyi tüm modellerde terörle negatif ve anlamlı bir ilişki göstermekte; kamu harcamaları ise pozitif ve anlamlı bir ilişki sergilemektedir. Eğitim durumu bazı modellerde anlamlı bulunurken, dini yapı değişkeni genel olarak anlamlılık göstermemektedir. Bu sonuçlar, ekonomik kalkınma ve gelir eşitsizliğinin azaltılmasına yönelik politikaların terörle mücadeledeki önemine işaret etmekte, kamu harcamaları-terör ilişkisinin daha derinlemesine araştırılması gerektiğini ortaya koymaktadır. Çalışma, il düzeyinde mekânsal analiziyle literatüre hem metodolojik hem ampirik katkı sunmayı amaçlamaktadır.

Keywords

• Türkiye
• PKK
• Terörle mücadele
• Bölgesel eşitsizlik
• FETÖ

TERRORISM PARTICIPATION IN TÜRKIYE: A CITY-LEVEL ANALYSIS

Abstract

This study examines the spatial distribution of individuals associated with terrorism at the city level in Türkiye and explores the socioeconomic and institutional factors that influence this pattern. Drawing on Türkiye's most-wanted terrorist lists, separate regression models are estimated to investigate the relationships between the proportion of individuals associated with terrorism and factors such as income level, educational attainment, public expenditure, and religion. Analysis is conducted in two distinct phases. First, a regression analysis is employed to identify determinants at the national-level are identified through. Secondly, marginal effects are calculated to evaluate the extent to which each independent variable’s impact varies across localities, thereby enabling local-level comparisons. The findings indicate that income is substantially and negatively correlated with terrorism across all models. Terorrism is significantly and positively associated with public expenditure. In certain models, educational attainment is statistically significant, while the variable representing religious structure is generally insignificant. These findings underscore the significance of policies that seek to reduce income inequality and promote economic development counterterrorism initiatives, while also indicating that the correlation between public expenditure and terrorism warrants further investigation. The study endeavors to make a methodological and empirical contribution to the literature by conducting a city-level spatial analysis.

Keywords

• Türkiye
• PKK
• Counterterrorism
• Regional inequality
• FETÖ.

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