SLEUTH İle Arazi Örtüsü Değişimi Simülasyon Modelinin Oluşturulması, İstanbul İli Örneği

Abstract

Nüfus artışı kentlerin büyümesine ve doğal yapıdaki alanların tahrip olmasına yol açmaktadır. Kentsel büyüme arazi örtüsündeki değişimleri tetiklemektedir. Arazi örtüsündeki değişim etkilerinin belirlenmesi sürdürülebilir politikalar için gereklidir. Bu nedenle benzetim uygulamaları planlama çalışmalarında yoğun olarak kullanılmaktadır. Kentsel büyümenin neden olduğu arazi örtüsü/kullanımı değişimlerini araştırmak için sıklıkla hücresel otomat (HO) yöntemi tercih edilmektedir. Bu çalışmada, HO tabanlı SLEUTH modeli kullanılarak İstanbul’un süregelen kentsel büyüme eğilimleri doğrultusunda 2040 yılı için benzetim modeli oluşturulması amaçlanmıştır. Modelin ihtiyaç duyduğu zamansal veriler 2000, 2006, 2012 ve 2018 yıllarına ait CORINE verilerinden üretilmiştir. Oluşturulan benzetim modeli ile İstanbul’daki olası kentsel büyüme ve arazi örtüsü değişimine etkileri araştırılmıştır. Üretilen benzetim modeline göre; tarım arazilerinin %25’inin, sulak alanların %2’sinin ve ormanların %14’ünün yerleşim alanlarına dönüşebileceği belirlenmiştir. İstanbul’da 2018 ile 2040 yılları arasında %24 oranında kentsel büyümenin olabileceği kestirilmiştir. Elde edilen sonuçlar İstanbul ilinin yoğun bir kentleşme baskısı altında olduğunu göstermiştir.

Keywords

• CBS
• Arazi Örtüsü Değişimi
• Kentsel Büyüme
• Hücresel Otomat
• Simülasyon

Creating a Land Cover Change Simulation Model with SLEUTH, the Case of Istanbul Province

Abstract

Population growth leads to the growth of cities and the destruction of natural areas. Urban growth triggers changes in land cover. Determining the effects of change in land cover is necessary for sustainable urban management. For this reason, simulation applications are used extensively in planning studies. The cellular automata (CA) based simulation methods are often preferred to investigate land cover/use changes caused by urban growth. In this study, it is aimed to create a simulation model for the year 2040 in line with the ongoing urban growth trends of Istanbul by using CA-based SLEUTH model. The temporal data required by the model are generated from CORINE Land Cover data for the years 2000, 2006, 2012 and 2018. With the simulation model created, the effects of possible urban growth and land cover change in Istanbul were investigated. According to the simulation model produced, it was determined that 25% of Agricultural Land, 2% of wetlands and 14% of forests could be turned into residential areas. It is estimated that there may be 24% urban growth in Istanbul between 2018 and 2040. The results showed that the province of Istanbul is under intense urbanization pressure.

Keywords

• GIS
• Land Cover Change
• Urban Growth
• Cellular Automata
• Simulation

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