Gine’de Demokrasi ve Askeri Baskı: Sandık ile Silah Arasında Demokrasi Mücadelesi (2008–2025)

Abstract

Bu çalışma, 2008–2025 döneminde Gine’de askerî müdahaleler sonrasında gerçekleştirilen seçimler ve anayasal süreçlerin demokratikleşme üzerindeki etkisini incelemeyi amaçlamaktadır. Araştırma, söz konusu dönemdeki darbeler, seçimler ve anayasal dönüşümler ile sınırlı olup nitel yöntem çerçevesinde tarihsel vaka incelemesi ve doküman analizi tekniklerine dayanmaktadır. Çalışmanın temel hipotezi, seçimler ve anayasal reformların demokratikleşmeyi derinleştirmekten ziyade askerî yönetimlerin siyasal meşruiyetini kurumsallaştırdığı yönündedir. Kuramsal çerçevede rekabetçi otoriterlik yaklaşımı esas alınmış; demokratik kurumların biçimsel varlığına rağmen siyasal rekabetin eşitsiz koşullarda gerçekleştiği kabul edilmiştir. Bulgular, seçim süreçlerinin sınırlı rekabet ortamında yürütüldüğünü; muhalefetin idari kısıtlamalar, baskılar ve siyasal dışlama mekanizmalarıyla zayıflatıldığını; seçim süreçlerinde şeffaflık sorunları, medya kontrolü ve manipülasyon iddialarının bulunduğunu göstermektedir. Ayrıca anayasal düzenlemelerin yürütme gücünü pekiştirdiği ve sivil siyasal aktörlerin karar alma süreçlerindeki etkisinin sınırlı kaldığı tespit edilmiştir. Sonuç olarak çalışma, Gine’de seçimlerin demokratikleşme üretmekten ziyade mevcut iktidar yapısının devamlılığını sağladığını ortaya koymaktadır. Geleceğe yönelik olarak, muhalefetin üzerindeki baskıların azaltılmadığı, seçim süreçlerinde şeffaflık ve bağımsız denetim mekanizmaları güçlendirilmediği, medya özgürlüğü sağlanmadığı ve sivil-asker ilişkilerinde kurumsal denge kurulmadığı sürece, seçimlerin otoriter yapıyı yeniden üreten bir araç olarak işlemeye devam edeceği öngörülmektedir. Bu bağlamda uluslararası aktörlerin baskısı ve iç reform talepleri belirleyici olabilir.
 

Keywords

• Gine
• Askeri Darbe
• Rekabetçi Otoriterlik
• Askeri Vesayet

Democracy and Military Pressure in Guinea: The Struggle for Democracy Between the Ballot Box and the Gun (2008–2025)

Abstract

This study aims to examine the impact of elections and constitutional processes following military interventions in Guinea during the 2008–2025 period on democratization. The research is limited to the coups, elections, and constitutional transformations of that period and is based on historical case studies and document analysis techniques within a qualitative methodology framework. The study’s main hypothesis is that elections and constitutional reforms institutionalize the political legitimacy of military regimes rather than deepening democratization. The theoretical framework is based on the competitive authoritarianism approach; it is accepted that despite the formal existence of democratic institutions, political competition takes place under unequal conditions. The findings indicate that election processes are conducted in an environment of limited competition; that the opposition is weakened by administrative restrictions, pressures, and mechanisms of political exclusion; and that there are allegations of transparency issues, media control, and manipulation in the election processes. It was also found that constitutional arrangements reinforced executive power and limited the influence of civilian political actors in decision-making processes. In conclusion, the study reveals that elections in Guinea have ensured the continuation of the existing power structure rather than producing democratization. Looking ahead, it is predicted that unless pressure on the opposition is reduced, transparency and independent oversight mechanisms in electoral processes are strengthened, media freedom is ensured, and institutional balance is established in civil-military relations, elections will continue to function as a tool that reproduces authoritarian structures. In this context, pressure from international actors and demands for internal reform may play a decisive role.

Keywords

• Guinea
• Military Coup
• Competitive Authoritarianism
• Military Supremacy

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